Joe Gelhardt’s deflected strike gave the hosts the lead but they failed to capitalise and Tomoki Iwata’s thunderbolt meant neither side ran away with the points.

Chris Davies kept an unchanged starting XI after a positive performance against Wrexham. There was change amongst the substitutes bench as Alex Cochrane and Marvin Ducksch returned in place of Jonathan Panzo and Kanya Fujimoto.

Both sides showed attacking intent in the early goings while looking to turn the opposition defence. Neither goalkeeper was tested in those early goings with Iwata and Semi Ajayi unable to find the target. Jay Stansfield did find the target after good work but his effort was tame and comfortable for Ivan Pandur.

After a bright start, Blues got a little sloppy and they were punished around the quarter-game mark. Carlos Vicente was dispossessed and Hull transitioned quickly. The defence dropped into the area as Liam Millar cut inside from the left, Vicente getting back to make the tackle only to see the ball fall kindly for Gelhardt, whose first time effort beat James Beadle via a deflection.

It almost got worse for Blues. Beadle came out to claim a long throw and completely missed the ball allowing a prod towards goal that the Blues keeper got a fingertip to before Phil Neumann cleared in front of an empty net.

Blues did respond positively and had a couple of opportunities before the break. Carlos Vicente broke down the right and crossed for Ibrahim Osman at the back post but he headed wide under pressure. Christoph Klarer then found August Priske with a quick free-kick leading to Vicente being set away for a blocked shot. And finally, Iwata struck over from the edge of the box.

The second half played similar to the first with Blues bright in the early goings but having little to show for it beyond a Jhon Solis effort from distance. Hull soon found their feet and ought to have secured the victory when Mohamed Belloumi beat two and found Millar but the winger was denied by an excellent block. Miller and Belloumi then both fired wide.

Davies’ twisted with the arrivals of the more experienced Marvin Ducksch and Demarai Gray and the latter came close to an equaliser, skipping inside and quickly firing towards the bottom corner, met by a good save.

Then the goal arrived. Gray again set the tone and laid off for Kai Wagner, whose delivery was met by the head of John Egan. In winning the header, he fell onto his team-mate Paddy McNair and with both on the floor, Iwata took a touch and fired into the top corner.

Hull had to gamble from that point, creating an end-to-end affair that would ultimately see Hull win the battle for territory. However, they couldn’t the killer moment, Ajayi shanking wide with a great opportunity, Oli McBurnie’s free-kick hitting Wagner and on the 100^th minute of play, Kyle Joseph headed over.

A score draw.

Lineups

Hull City: Pandur; Coyle Ajayi Egan McNair (Giles 83); Hadziahmetovic (Joseph 87) Crooks; Belloumi (Hirakawa 83) Gelhardt (Dowell 75) Miller (Koumas 75); McBurnie. Unused: Phillips; Hughes Famewo Matazo.

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel (Laird 50) Neumann Klarer Wagner; Iwata Solis; Vicente (Paik 95) Stansfield (Ducksch 63) Osman (Gray 63); Priske (Cochrane 95). Unused: Allsop; Robinson Doyle Roberts.

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Shape

Both sides lined up 4-2-3-1 here.

For Blues, it was more of a classic 4-2-3-1 with the front four looking to stay closer together with the full-backs or a midfielder getting up in support. For Hull, it became more of a 4-3-3 with Gelhardt dropping in, the number 20 with the long name sitting in and the wingers providing real width.

Blues had a clear gameplan in the press, looking to force Hull to play towards their left-hand side where John Egan (LCB) and Paddy McNair (LB) would be receiving possession, players on their wrong side. This would see Stansfield ignire the press on Egan, Vicente jump onto McNair, Osayi-Samuel against Millar (LW) and Iwata jump onto Crooks (LCM) with Solis against number 20 (DM/RCM).

For Hull, it was all about keeping possession in order to spread play to the other flank where they would quickly look to get Mohamed Belloumi (RW) involved, using Joe Gelhardt (AM/RCM) to create space for Belloumi to float into different areas. Alternatively, they would look to go long to Oli McBurnie (ST), who would find himself in a fight and would likely allow Hull to work off the seconds.

For Blues, it was a similar idea. Hull weren’t quite aggressive in their approach out of possession – generally a classic 4-4-2 / 4-4-1-1 and waiting for the chance to get the midfield involved to press – and so for Blues, it was about working opportunities to play forward by stretching the pitch, looking to use a full-back to stretch the pitch on one side while the other moves forward from a central position on the other.

You can see here, Laird and Osman are on either flank while Vicente makes the central run.

And here, in an admittedly blurred image, it’s similar with Laird and Gray wide while Vicente is inside.

In each situation, the midfield are then able to join the play. Depending on which side the ball bounces depends on whether Laird remains forward or whether he begins to sit inside and allow Wagner to get up in support. The unit working together to create the 3-2-5 or 2-3-5 situation that allows us to have bodies in the box and work an overload out wide while bodies are well positioned in the middle to get hold of the seconds. At least, that was the design.

In terms of shape changes for both sides, there was one each.

Dowell initially arrived as an attacking midfielder but dropped into central midfield with Crooks for the remaining minutes, allowing Kyle Joseph to play off Oli McBurnie.

Blues made a change in injury time that saw us swap from 4-2-3-1 to 5-4-1. Wagner moved from LB to LCB, Cochrane arrived as LWB, Gray moved from LW to RW and Paik came on at LW with Ducksch playing alone up top.

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Confidence is growing; quality needs to come

Let’s begin with the positives. This was another positive performance on the whole. Not perfect, but positive.

We played on the front foot. We attacked the individual battles. We broke in behind the opposition defence where possible. We always looked to play forward. And the most important thing – we responded having gone behind. We couldn’t get the win but we managed to get the equaliser having gone behind and it was more than earned.

I thought the two centre-backs (perhaps except for the goal) were excellent and won the majority of their battles with Oli McBurnie, not the easiest task. I thought Kai Wagner had it tough up against Belloumi but did well and the unit supported him. Jhon Solis was so quick to win possession and break forward and once he learns how and when to release the ball, he’ll be a hell of a player.

The front four didn’t always get it right but it wasn’t a lack of effort. They worked hard, they got stuck in, they stuck to the plan, the wingers committed their men, we got efforts away. And when they arrived, Marvin Ducksch and Demarai Gray gave us the shot in the arm we needed with the additional quality giving others time to get involved higher up and creating the situation that led to the goal.

I have to keep looking our current situation as one of a football team starting again. We reached rock bottom after Derby County so while this absolutely isn’t where we ought to have been given the pre-season expectations, our efforts since the international break have been far more positive and it should be acknowledged.

But you can still see those moments where players look unsure. For example, a little like Blackburn, there were times here when the game required a bit of craft and quality from deeper positions and we weren’t entirely comfortable, be it players being willing to find the pass through the lines or players both willing to show and able to make the right decision with a player up their backside. And that’s what the next two games are probably going to provide as a challenge – Preston North End and Bristol City are not possession heavy.

And that’s the next challenge now. We’ve gone some way to proving we can run, challenge, scrap and do the hard yards within reason and now it’s about showing we can add quality to that. I’m not expecting perfection, just improvement.

Backing off and turning away

I had my issues earlier in the season with defenders backing away or turning away from things and we saw a little bit of that here.

Firstly, the opener.

Now, I will acknowledge Vicente’s role in this. He loses the ball in a ground duel a little too easily, he then rightly sprints back to support his team and manages to make the tackle. The ball falls fortuitously for Joe Gelhardt but we have to do better in the initial phase when playing and receiving possession to avoid being caught in that way.

However, let’s focus on the response. Liam Millar (LW) has possession and he’s driving towards the box. Osayi-Samuel has the flank, Iwata is pointing towards that while getting ready to cover inside and Solis stays on the edge, as he ought to in order to cover his team-mates inside. We are 3v2 in the box.

When Millar steps inside, we don’t get out but rather than three defenders in the box take another couple of steps towards James Beadle’s goal.

And then Neumann turns his back on the shot.

I thought Neumann had an excellent game on the whole. I loved the fact that after Oli McBurnie’s naughty challenge on Kai Wagner early on, he beat him up to the point that McBurnie spent a fair bit of time complaining to the referee about unfair treatment. But these are the sort of things he – and other defenders – still need to eradicate from their game. Switch on, read the situation, step forward rather than taking a step backwards and stand up straight rather than turning away.

Speaking of which, look at Wagner and Solis.

Yeah, we have to be better at that stuff.

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Opposition

Hull City are both set up well to cause problems for opponents and also set up for chaos and it makes them a lot of fun.

Our game in the reverse fixture was barmy as both sides went hell for leather despite us having ten men and there were moments where the game threatened to be like that here, albeit with a little more organisation on show than that day.

I thought John Egan was top drawer at centre-half, winning his aerial duels and reading danger on the regular. The number 20 at the base of midfield with the long name looked after the ball well and I thought the winger, Mohamed Belloumi, was top drawer both in his attacking intent but also his work rate.

Fortunately, while chasing the game, they brought on Lewis Koumas, who thankfully showed his Blues form rather than becoming a footballer we didn’t see,

Next up: Preston North End (H)

A different kind of match-up and one in which we will need to stand up physically.

I assume Ethan Laird will replace Bright Osayi-Samuel at right-back. We may make a change in the wide areas. Otherwise, I think we will largely stick as we have been for the last couple and then freshen up for Bristol City on the Saturday given the short turnaround.

A win would be lovely. How nice it would be to finish the campaign unbeaten now.

KRO.

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A positive performance from the hosts was rewarded when Carlos Vicente headed home early in the second half and Christoph Klarer sealed the points later on.

Chris Davies made three changes from the side that battled well in defeat at Ipswich Town as Kai Wagner, Tomoki Iwata and Ibrahim Osman entered the XI in place of Ethan Laird, Paik Seung-Ho and Demarai Gray, who all dropped to the bench. Marvin Ducksch was absent from the matchday squad for “internal matters”.

Blues started on the front foot and were in behind twice via Jay Stansfield and Vicente early doors but it was Iwata that had the first effort, being deflected wide. The move from the resulting corner ended with Wagner delivering for Solis who couldn’t connect cleanly.

Blues never let up and had a couple more efforts on goal. August Priske headed another Wagner set-piece on target and the Blues left-back was involved again, nodding down Iwata’s crossfield pass for Osman to volley over. Osman was involved again found by and then finding Vicente but Arthur Okonkwo was equal to the effort.

It took a quarter of the game for Wrexham to have their first effort on goal, Kieffer Moore flicking the ball on for Ollie Rathbone to shoot wide. Callum Doyle later tried his luck from a similar distance but with too much power.

The game settled from that point but Blues were the better side and should have taken the lead with one of the last kicks of the half, Iwata’s clearance read by Vicente, who controlled but couldn’t lift the ball over Okonkwo one v one.

Vicente would get his goal within a couple of minutes of the second half. Blues got out of a tight spot on the right and Priske’s loose lay off was picked up by Paik, laying the ball out to Wagner. Typical of the left-back, the German delivered on point and Vicente was first to the back-post delivery, heading past Okonkwo.

Again, chances were few and far between from then on with Stansfield’s high effort the closest either side came but on 71 minutes, the lead was doubled. Max Cleworth did everything he could to stop Klarer attacking the ball but the Austrian was too strong, outmuscling his man and connecting with the ball at the back post to secure the points.

It almost got better. Wagner’s near post delivery was flicked just wide by Stansfield while in injury time Gray dragged an effort wide and Vicente was able to step infield once more but his shot lacked power.

A much-needed home win for Chris Davies and his side.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Klarer Wagner; Iwata (Doyle 85) Solis (Paik 46); Vicente Stansfield (Laird 88) Osman (Gray 78); Priske. Unused: Allsop; Robinson Panzo Roberts Fujimoto.

Wrexham: Okonkwo; Cleworth Scarr Doyle; Kabore (Keillor-Dunn 86) Dobson James (Broadhead 64) Thomason; Rathbone (Windass 64) O’Brien; Moore (Smith 74). Unused: Ward; Hyam Brunt Barnett Longman.

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Shape

Blues lined up 4-2-3-1 with Wrexham in a 5-2-2-1 shape.

For Blues, it was all about creating width. We would look to find the full-backs quickly across the back and then regularly play the ball either into the wingers feet or search for the ball in behind, be that for Osman, Vicente or Stansfield. The aim was always to draw on the Wrexham wing-back then get one of those three moving on the front foot against the wide centre-back and create that separation in the Wrexham backline and play with territory.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about our game and something we’ve often lacked this season is the forward running and movement. If Stansfield dropped into midfield, somebody else would make the forward run and get involved in the final third. If the opportunity was available for either full-back to get in the box, they made it. We were always occupying their backline, leading to those 1v1 situations from deliveries into the area while having a spare man on either flank to switch play out to.

Here is the picture for the Osman chance after Iwata switched out to Wagner at the back stick:

And the first goal, where we have Wagner delivering to Stansfield, Priske and Vicente at the back post all 1v1.

Wrexham’s aim was to stifle out of possession. Moore would show to a point but it was O’Brien and Rathbone tasked with most of the running as they looked to get from the wide centre-back to go and support the wing-back in closing the ball. When they stepped on, Dobson would be released from midfield to create the 5-1-3-1 shape common with a back five. It was all about blocking out the centre of the pitch and forcing us wide, perhaps assuming we would try and play on the deck more than we did. They would then look to harangue the winger or midfielder in possession and step on quickly.

For Wrexham in possession, it was all about playing off Kieffer Moore. He was the guy they wanted to find at every opportunity, in order to work on knockdowns and play. When they were successful with this, Rathbone and O’Brien would join centrally with the wing-backs stepping on. At this point, Blues would generally have Vicente drop back in to create a back five for Blues with Osayi-Samuel stepping infield to tackle O’Brien or Rathbone, generally leaving Neumann and Klarer to deal with Moore.

What this would also do was give Blues the ability to transition quickly. While Stansfield and Osman did have to step in to support the midfield and create that 5-3-2 / 5-4-1 shape at points, any possession won back would create an opportunity to transition and so Blues would have space to attack the Wrexham back three, particularly in the channels.

While on this occasion it is Callum Doyle able to take the shot from distance, you can see Blues not only have numbers back, but also Stansfield and Osman are up against Doyle and Cleworth with Priske against Scarr and Dobson out of picture. That break was on.

What Wrexham failed to do throughout was give Moore sufficient support and occupy the other centre-back or stretch Blues enough. Even the changes they made with Windass and Broadhead coming on became like-for-like and it was only when Sam Smith arrived on the pitch that Klarer and Neumann had to think differently, the striker making runs between the centre-backs rather than having everything in front.

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Best Performance of the Season?

Man this has been a long time coming.

For the first time since November, Blues pieced everything together and produced a top quality performance.

Sure, we’ve had good games since the 4-1 against Norwich City. Watford. Southampton. Coventry City. Oxford United. Stoke City. Queens Park Rangers. But this felt different. From minute one, we got on the front foot. We broke in behind with speed. We won our battles across the pitch. We played with intensity and courage. Defended our box. Attacked theirs.

Come the final whistle, Wrexham had had four shots at James Beadle’s goal, just one from blocked effort from inside our area. They had ten touches inside our box. In the second half, that was two touches and zero shots inside our area.

Dominant.

The biggest reason for being pleased is that we didn’t do what we have done far too often this season which is cause our own problems. We got on the front foot and stayed on the front foot. We defended our box properly on the rare occasion we had to, didn’t cheaply give possession away and enable attacking transitions. We just carried out our jobs and carried them out properly for 90 minutes.

You can praise across the team. Osayi-Samuel tucking into an almost right-sided centre-back role and being aggressive. Neumann with one of his most dominant displays all seasons. Wagner returning and being involved in so much good. The midfield quick to seconds and moving it quickly. Vicente with his best display in a Blues shirt . Priske probably the same. The leaders stood up to be counted with selfless performances.

There’s a sense of “where has this been” about this win. There are caveats as far as the medium – long term is concerned but for now, let’s enjoy this. A proper performance and a proper win.

The caveats

Alright. Here we go.

The first is that Wrexham were dire. While we were excellent and stopped them at every opportunity, Wrexham showed us far too much respect, a respect we really haven’t earned. They started with just one forward on the pitch and waited over an hour to introduce others, allowing us to always have more bodies available to win possession back rather than being stretched. Their press was abysmal too, somehow failing to press high while leaving oodles of space at the back.

Another is freshness. The international break provided the opportunity for a reset, January signings have had a break, the pressure is now off because we have “nothing” to play for as it were.

The last two games have also been freer hits, if not free hits. Sides pushing for promotion, gambles taken, more space to play in. We’ve been able to play a simplified version of our game because the space has been in the opposition half rather than in our own allowing us to take fewer risks.

This was our first win in a month. It was our second win in nine matches. This isn’t a case of great, we’ve solved everything and Chris Davies is the saviour once more. It’s simply a good start and a positive response. That we have put in good back-to-back performances for the first time in months is good but as Davies has been open about, we haven’t been anywhere near consistent enough.

The challenge is set now. Go to Hull City and produce the same levels of work ethic and desire and willingness to fight and scrap and back each other up and take opportunities.

Phil Neumann

We’re going to play a game of “why isn’t he playing” for these next couple.

It is true that our record with Phil Neumann is much better than without him. It’s also true that he has been our second-best centre-half this season.

It is also true that only the Davies four (Klarer, Iwata, Paik, Stansfield) and Beadle have played more minutes than Phil Neumann this season. He has started 28 matches, over two-thirds of our games.

There’s little denying that his absences have been felt because of the calamitous or soft performances of those that have replaced him in the starting XI. In truth, Eiran Cashin, Jack Robinson and Jonathan Panzo combined have probably cost us more points combined than Phil Neumann has. I just think there has to be an understanding that we aren’t talking about prime Nemanja Vidic here.

He is new to the level and also hasn’t been an out-and-out centre-half in the recent past having spent time playing at right-back or wide of a three. He has had some tough games where he hasn’t shown the kind of robustness a Championship centre-half needs. His indecisiveness has been a problem, dropping too deep or not responding to situations that create opportunities for opponents. Then there are the technical aspects, part of the reason Davies has looked for that leftie balance to improve the tempo of our game. At times, Neumann has looked unsure of himself and even beaten up on occasions.

He has improved and you can see that he is adapting and learning. I do wonder whether he’d have kept his place had he not suffered that knock against Leicester City, which gave Jonathan Panzo an opportunity and one the new guy took for a brief minute there.

The German returned to the side against Ipswich Town and Wrexham has shown the kind of aggression, decisiveness and dominance at centre-half we’ve been waiting to see. He’s been on the front foot, confident in his decision, he has been strong against physical strikers and made quicker decisions with the ball – it was his run that set up Osman for the disallowed goal on Easter Monday.

My belief is that Davies likes Neumann but only trusts him to a certain point and has therefore looked for a different answer to our issues when the opportunity has arisen, only for others to fail to take their chances and Davies therefore returning to Neumann. That Davies has spoken more than once about wanting defenders that can defend and speaking positively about Neumann’s display against Wrexham suggests that Neumann has a chance if he continues to perform as he did on Sunday. He probably is in a position where he has to keep those levels up and can ill afford a drop-off if he wants to keep his spot.

I like Neumann. He’s been very frustrating at points and I can understand why he has been dropped in and out but he has shown signs of learning and hopefully he sticks around next term to fight for his place against Klarer and the other top-class centre-half we are going to sign (manifesting).

Carlos Vicente and August Priske

I’ll pop these both in together given they seemed to come in and drop out at the same time.

Why hasn’t Davies given them a chance? Look at them! That’s the type of thing I feel I’ve been reading since Sunday and... yeah.

Both signed in January. Before the Leeds game, Vicente made one start and was removed on the hour while Priske had to bide his time, nothing out of the ordinary for new signings from abroad.

The cup game with Leeds presented an opportunity and they performed so well they earned starts against Norwich City, where they registered a goal and assist between them before being removed later on with tired legs.

They started against Millwall and struggled. They were replaced for Boro – three games in a week, made sense – and returned for Charlton where they again struggled. Change was made for QPR – Patrick Roberts scored the winner – and Sheffield United at home – Ducksch scored our goal – and the Derby debacle followed.

They’re brand new to the country. Davies admitted pre-Blackburn that Priske had been suffering with illness for a period before the international break. They had dipped their toes in the water during a busy period of games and occasionally performed well and occasionally struggled. They’re competing with Patrick Roberts, one of our players of the season, Marvin Ducksch, our top goalscorer, and Jay Stansfield, the poster boy. Of course it was going to take time for Vicente and Priske to find their place and learn the division.

Davies gave almost everybody a chance for Blackburn and Ipswich with only Ryan Allsop and Kanya Fujimoto not starting out of the 20-man squad for those matches. We performed excellently against Ipswich and followed that up with a top display against Wrexham. Priske and Vicente have been important to our games and they will almost certainly start against Hull City. You can possibly throw Jhon Solis and Ibrahim Osman into that mix. Time and patience.

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Opposition

Let’s be honest, Wrexham were really poor.

I can’t get my head around the amount of respect they showed us. They lined up 5-4-1 against a side that has often been so weak against pressure with five central midfielders named. Little wonder that Keiffer Moore found himself isolated. By the time they did change it, they were behind and couldn’t increase the tempo of their game.

It just looked a tired display. One of a side reaching the business end of the season and a little unsure of themselves after the hammering against Southampton on Easter Monday. They lost out in too many duels, got the press wrong and left themselves open.

Next up: Hull City (a)

More of the same please lads.

Hull are awkward opposition, a side who present chaos rather than consistency and any game with them could go either way. Hopefully we put up the same level of fight and application and give ourselves a chance.

With the exception of Paik returning, it’s hard to see us making much in the way of change. Vicente will probably fill a similar role to recent games against Ryan Giles, who likes to step on, allowing Stansfield and Osman opportunities to spin in behind.

Here’s hoping we back it up. KRO.

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Carlos Vicente gave Chris Davies’ side a shock lead at the promotion chasers but errors allowed Ben Johnson and Kasey McAteer to turn the score on its head. Blues should have had a second late on but the linesman incorrectly judged that Ibrahim Osman had dribbled the ball out of play.

Davies made seven changes to the side that fell to defeat against Blackburn Rovers with James Beadle, Christoph Klarer, Paik Seung-Ho and Jay Stansfield the only players to remain in the XI. All seven changes were straight swaps between the XI and the bench.

The hosts almost took the lead within a minute, Jonathan Panzo decided to try and smash the ball out of play in the middle of the pitch and instead watching it bounce against Marcelino Nunez, who teed up McAteer in the vacant space to strike just over. Blues then had an opportunity at the other end when Vicente volleyed a free-kick against an Ipswich body and wide of the target.

That was pretty much that for a while. Blues were aggressive in their approach but also leaving various gaps across the pitch that Ipswich failed to exploit for opportunities at goal. That was until George Hirst controlled a long ball forward for the run of McAteer, who burst past both Panzo and Phil Neumann only for Beadle to read the effort low down.

Blues went straight down the other end and after Paik had won a challenge, Stansfield collected and immediately turned away from Azor Matusiwa then Nunez before delivering a cross that was poked towards Vicente on the far side of the area. His first time, left footed effort was crisp and found the bottom corner.

It wouldn’t last. Klarer and Demarai Gray did well to snuff out danger after Jack Clarke ran across the pitch but when Gray laid the ball off to Panzo, the defender showed little composure and promptly toepunted the ball against McAteer. The rebound fell kindly for Darnell Furlong, who crossed to the back stick where Ben Johnson was free to head over the goal line despite Neumann’s best efforts to clear.

Then it got worse. Panzo got caught on the left-hand side and Nunez quickly found Clarke in a pocket, who found Hirst to tee up McAteer for another 1v1, one he didn’t make a mistake with this time.

It almost became embarrassing before half-time as Ipswich revved up and Blues dropped. Hirst headed on target direct from a corner delivery while Beadle did well to handle Anis Mehmeti’s effort from a tight angle.

Panzo’s stormer of a game continued as he completely missed the ball early in the second half that allowed McAteer in behind once more, the winger skewing the ball wide. Davies made a double substitution with Panzo and Gray swapped for Ethan Laird and Ibrahim Osman shortly after. It helped.

Good pressure from Blues penned Ipswich back but the best we had to show for our efforts was a Jhon Solis low drive on target. Immediately at the other end, Hirst struck against Klarer with the ball bouncing wide of the target.

The controversial moment came around the 70-minute mark. Osman received from Laird and promptly showed quick feet to beat Furlong before his cross hit the body of Dara O’Shea and bounced in. The officials called for a goal kick but replays show the ball remained comfortably in play.

Blues continued on the front foot regardless. Brilliant work from Laird set up Stansfield for an effort that was blocked before more good work from Osman down the left led to a cross-shot that the hosts were able to clear. After O’Shea cleverley flicked a corner just wide, Osman drove into space and hit an effort that Christian Walton did well to push against the post.

It wasn’t to be. Ipswich moved to a back five and shut up shop late on with Blues’ best moment in the final minutes being a Laird header from a Patrick Roberts delivery over the bar. It’s now four points from the last eight for Blues.

Lineups

Ipswich Town: Walton; Furlong O’Shea Greaves Johnson; Matusiwa (Mehmeti 39) Neil; McAteer (Kipre 86) Nunez (Taylor 76) Clarke (Philogene 76); Hirst (Akpom 76). Unused: Palmer; Baggott Cajuste Walle Egeli.

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Klarer Panzo (Laird 56); Solis Paik (Iwata 46); Vicente (Roberts 81) Stansfield (Ducksch 81) Gray (Osman 56); Priske. Unused: Allsop; Robinson Doyle Fujimoto.

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Shape

Both sides lined up 4-2-3-1 here.

Ipswich played their familiar game, looking to stretch the pitch and work off George Hirst, hoping to build towards opportunities when Ben Johnson could get high down the left and Jack Clarke could drift in centrally. They were regularly hoping to draw Blues’ press on and spring into the space provided or play the direct ball once Blues were moved out of shape, allowing them to attack at speed. This was evident for the equaliser where Clarke gets on the blindside and Nunez picks out the pass.

For Blues, it was about being aggressive and not letting that happen. The aim was to push one of the two midfielders on out of possession and force the ball towards the left-hand side, where Ben Johnson (LB) was on his wrong side. By trying to close him quickly, we would force a singular pass inside and that is where we wanted to have our joy, honing in quickly to win back possession whether the pass went into midfield or more direct.

The below is an example of our plan. Paik would step right onto Matusiwa (RCM) with Priske v O’Shea (RCB) and Stansfield having the dual role of watching Neil (LCM) then stepping onto Greaves (LCB). Greaves receiving would be the trigger for Vicente to close Johnson (LB) and Solis to step on to Neil. Priske and Paik would then begin to drop back in, as would Gray to support Paik once the ball was played forward.

On this occasion, Johnson manages to squeeze a left-footed clearance and you can see the plan in action. Osayi-Samuel has followed Clarke (LW) into a deep position with Neumann up against Hirst (ST) but Paik nearby and Gray close to Nunez (CAM) with Klarer on the cover and Panzo watchful of McAteer (RW).

On this occasion, Blues are a little stand-offish rather than aggressive so Hirst is able to fight off Neumann and drop the ball to Nunez, who then has the run of McAteer to find and Panzo does well in recovery, but the idea and plan from both teams was set during this clip. On other occasions, Blues won the first duel and would quickly set about playing.

For Blues in possession, it was all about width and Priske. When playing out, the aim was to try and find the feet of Gray and Vicente in whichever position, looking to use them as an out to beat the press and get the midfield or strikers in possession to play and play quickly. When that option wasn’t on, the team were happy to send the ball forward to Priske, who handled himself quite well during the game and while not winning every battle certainly made life awkward enough so that Vicente and Stansfield could get up in support.

There were three key tactical changes in the first hour.

The first was Ipswich was making the decision to remove Matusiwa for Mehmeti, with Mehmeti taking Nunez’s role and Nunez dropping deeper alongside Neil. It’s as if Ipswich wanted to force more of our players back, so having Mehmeti up closer to Hirst and Nunez being more likely to step on and make things happen gave them more control and territory. It created more of a 3-1 vibe in defensive areas and gave Ipswich an extra body in attack. It also meant that when Clarke dragged Osayi-Samuel infield, Neumann and Klarer were both occupied because Mehmeti was making regular runs across the middle to create some chaos, or those two were already occupying the centre-backs and Osayi-Samuel would be left with a decision of whether to follow Clarke inside or leave huge space for Johnson on the left while Vicente pushed on.

This is the first goal. Ipswich have played into Nunez and we’ve not reacted to initial play, allowing Nunez to step on. This then forces Paik to step off Mehmeti onto Nunez and Solis is marking two. Neumann is marking Hirst and so Clarke is free. If Osayi-Samuel steps infield, Johnson has acres of space. Really, Vicente could have done with dropping in and giving himself more space while supporting the midfield two and these tiny details can often be enough to cause damage.

This leads to the second change. Paik was replaced by Iwata at half-time – no doubt for a knock rather than tactical, especially as Laird looked likely to come on at half-time – and this meant Iwata at the base with Solis next to him. What this did give Blues was two aggressors and that, combined with Stansfield stepping up from a defensive point of view, was that Blues were able to win more of those midfield battles and step forward with the ball.

Then came the third change, a double sub from Blues to replace Panzo and Gray with Laird and Osman. Blues’ left-hand side was now filled with speed, power and technique. While Gray wasn’t necessarily an issue he lacked support, support that was offered by Laird and Solis for Osman and created opportunities. And because we were being more aggressive, other things started happening such as Osayi-Samuel regularly bombing forward while the disallowed goal was created by Neumann stepping in and driving through the middle.

Quite simply, the changes gave Blues a bit of confidence, a bit of life and more power running forward against opponents that were happy to take a chance, which created more scenarios that allowed us to break into the final third and get Osman in 1v1 positions to attack.

With Blues on the front foot, McKenna made one more notable tactical change. This saw Kipre replace McAteer and his side move to a back five with Philogene and Mehmeti now off Akpom in attack in a 5-2-3.

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All too rare

Birmingham City have not been good away from home this season. It’s an undeniable truth. Recently, it’s not even been just away from home. We’ve become a shadow of the all-conquering League One outfit that came into the Championship with so much expectation and so Easter Monday felt like a formality. We’ll turn up, concede quickly, have a little go and concede again before losing in comfortable fashion for the hosts. They’re good. We’re weak. It is what it is.

We almost gave one away within five minutes and in truth, the gaps were there to exploit but Ipswich lacked the killer touch. And then we scored. Blimey.

We did of course Blues up the afternoon, conceding two unbelievably crap goals from a defensive point of view. But something happened in the second half. We gave it a real go.

This wasn’t the Blues that have so often phoned it in. The Blues that gives up the ghost, loses work rate and composure and stops playing. We had Solis and Laird driving from deep. Stansfield was at his ratty, horrible best. We committed players. We won battles. We were trying to win the match.

And sure, we didn’t create the guilt-edged chance but it wasn’t about that. It was about seeing that desire to really try and win a football match, the kind of quality we have too often lacked.

It never came to anything. Sure, we had a perfectly good goal disallowed because of guess work. We hit the post. But we still lost. Questions get asked. The thing is, if we were losing in that manner, fans wouldn’t be as upset. Still upset, but not as upset.

Against Millwall we were bullied. Against Middlesbrough we were soft. At Charlton and Derby we didn’t even try. We created little vs 10 men Sheffield United. The response to going behind vs Blackburn was pathetic. Here, we really tried and took the game to a side that are probably going to win automatic promotion. Where has that Blues been?

Ipswich are unique in the sense of the gambles they take and the bodies they commit, leaving more space to attack so the game will look different to others but it doesn’t change the raw work ethic and commitment we showed here. Give us that for the remainder of the season and while it won’t rewrite history, it will help repair a bit of the damage.

At our best under Davies, we’ve been organised, aggressive and earned the right to play our football and have control. Get back to those basics. Give us something.

Jonathan Panz Oh No

I don’t like punching down on individuals but it’s hard not to reference Jonathan Panzo’s performance here.

We’ve seen some shockers this year, mostly involving by Jack Robinson, but this might top the list.

• Steps infield and promptly tries to smash the ball, only for it to rebound nicely for Nunez to set McAteer away into the vacated space

• Let’s his man go from a throw-in and gets bailed out by Beadle

• Should give away a penalty for a blatant pull of Jacob Greaves’ shirt

• Stands too close to Gray and fails to adjust for a simple lay-off that he boots against McAteer leading to the equaliser

• Gives the ball away, gets caught ball watching and promptly leaves his man to close the ball

• Completely misses the ball and leaves McAteer in behind 1v1

There was also his cross, played with all the power of a new born baby holding your finger for the first time.

He did admittedly make one good sliding challenge to deny McAteer on the cover. Acknowledgement of him being out of position at left-back should be made too. And it’s not as if Osayi-Samuel, Neumann and Paik were dominating their battles.

Make no mistake though, this was a horror show and one rightly ended early.

Phil Neumann

The topic of conversation about who should partner Christoph Klarer rages on and recent weeks have given more credence to the idea that it should be Phil Neumann.

He returned for Ipswich and in truth, he was nothing more than alright. He had a bit of a scrap with Hirst in which he won some and lost others. He was caught out on a couple of occasions leading to good chances for McAteer while he and Osayi-Samuel could have communicated better for the equaliser. His driving run set up the chance for the disallowed goal. It was an alright display with mixed results.

However, in comparison to what we see with Neumann compared to what we see without him, I think he has earned his spot back.

The German isn’t a perfect solution and there is a reason he has been in and out of the starting XI. He has had issues dealing with experienced or powerful forwards, has a habit of holding back when he should commit and he’s not great in possession, creating a pressing trigger for opponents. Yet Neumann on a less than impressive day is still a much bigger positive than Robinson or Panzo on a bad day. Neumann is culpable to dropping to a 5 or 6 out of 10 rather than a straight 2 or 3.

All we want as fans for the rest of the season is to see that commitment from the players that we are trying to win a football match as we showed here. I think Neumann is the better solution at centre-back to make that a reality.

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Opposition

Ipswich are in prime position to win promotion now and it’s easy to feel like they’re not that strong. Nobody has really felt like that in the division and it has made the self-loathing about Blues all the worse.

Where I think Ipswich did excel was the sharpness at which they exploit space. Every time space became available, they made the pass, whether it be into Hirst or finding Nunez or Clarke in space. They were dangerous and while it’s a disaster from our point of view, their second goal was a ruthless bit of play.

Nunez was excellent and clearly worth the money paid. Clarke was clever. Hirst was a much better target than the one we faced in August and without the antics. The rest were pretty steady. A good side that have just found enough to get over the line.

Next up: Wrexham (h)

Anybody not looking forward to this? Yep.

Given the disparity of the performances, it’s hard not to think we’ll name an XI closer to the Ipswich team than the Blackburn one.

Beadle in net. Neumann, Klarer and Laird in defence. Solis in midfield. Vicente, Stansfield and Priske in attack. I think Gray gets the nod over Osman to start. The rest depends on Paik and the LB situation. Ideally, Laird is RB, Wagner/Cochrane LB and Paik CM. It could be Laird LB and a decision of whether Doyle or BOS start.

Just fight lads. We don’t expect much at this point. There’s nothing riding on it. Just go and have a go and fight and try to win. Engage us.

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The expectation was that Blues would provide a response after a weak performance at Derby County but Todd Cantwell’s second half strike gave Rovers a much-needed victory in their fight against relegation.

Chris Davies made two changes from the side beaten at Pride Park, Patrick Roberts and Tommy Doyle returning to the XI in place Demarai Gray and Jonathan Panzo, who both dropped to the bench. Kanya Fujimoto replaced Kyogo Furuhashi on the bench.

It was a fairly positive start from Blues who showed intent but typical of our campaign, we failed to test the opposition goalkeeper and were almost punished as Todd Cantwell saw his effort deflected just wide of the near post. Scott Wharton then headed wide from a corner and the warning signs were apparent.

It took a set-piece for Blues to get back into things, Marvin Ducksch lining up a free-kick from 25 yards landed just over the top of the crossbar. It didn’t deter the visitors, who really should have taken the lead. James Beadle showed excellent reading of play to deny Cantwell a certain goal and his reactions were spot on to deny the follow-up from Harry Pickering.

It took Blues until the 39^th minute to have a real moment in the final third and it ought to have led to a goal as brilliant work from Roberts gave Ibrahim Osman an opportunity from a few yards out only for the ball to rebound off the post. Paik Seung-Ho struck on target a moment later and the score would be goalless at half-time.

Blues started positively in the second half. Tomoki Iwata had a tame effort curl narrowly wide while Jay Stansfield beat the offside trap twice to race in behind but decided to cross on both occasions, much to the chagrin of the home faithful.

That profligacy would be problematic as the visitors found their feet again. Beadle had to produce another top save, this time to deny Yuki Ohashi. Brilliant work from Ryoya Morishita ended with an effort being blocked and from the resulting corner, Wharton headed wide. Demarai Gray’s arrival brought a bit of life back into the Blues attack but his dart ended with a tame Stansfield strike from the edge.

Then came the blow Davies and his side didn’t need. Roberts ran forward and tried to find Fujimoto, but the pass was cut out. Blackburn played through Blues quickly and Cantwell was ruthless with the finish, sending the visiting fans into celebration.

Blues huffed adn puffed thereon. Stansfield couldn’t connect cleanly with a Doyle cross, Iwata had a left-footed shot saved after a set-up from Fujimoto and then came our best chance of the afternoon as patient play down the right ended with Priske finding the run of Doyle whose effort was saved from six yards out.

That was as good as it got as Blues ran out of steam and fans raised their frustrations. It almost got worse at the end until a block was made on Ohashi’s effort in injury time.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Iwata (Osayi-Samuel 88) Klarer Robinson Laird; Doyle Paik; Roberts (Vicente 77) Ducksch (Fujimoto 66) Osman (Gray 66) Stansfield (Priske 77). Unused: Allsop; Neumann Panzo Solis.

Blackburn: Toth; Atcheson Wharton (Ribiero 84) McLoughlin; Alebiosu Forshaw Baradji (Tavares 91) Pickering; Morishita (Montgomery 77) Cantwell (Jorgensen 84); Ohashi. Unused: Pears; De Neve Mullarkey-Matthews Redmond Afolayan.

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Shape

Blues reverted back to their usual 4-2-3-1 shape while Blackburn lined up in a 3-4-3.

For Blues, it was more of a classic 4-2-3-1. Rather than having specific, set positions on the pitch, this was more free-form with the wingers having license to step infield and occupy more half-central positions, looking to receive in pockets between the lines and behind the opposition midfield. The aim was typically to draw on the opposition and look to exploit the space in behind the midfield and defence once it became available.

An example of this is available early on. Blues have the ball on the right so Osman has drifted infield. Now the ball is being transferred to the left, Osman is moving back out wide with Roberts drifting infield and latching onto the other midfielder.

The design is not only for those two to become an option, but also to ensure both midfielders can’t step on and press aggressively. If Blues can move the ball and draw on Blackburn, it will leave one midfielder covering a large space and various options, which then pulls out the defence and opens up space.

And this happens. Robinson finds Laird, which draws on the right wing-back. Paik is then free in space, which draws on the midfielder. Now Paik has a forward pass available to Osman while Ducksch and Roberts are also free. gents.

Admittedly on this occasion, we lose the ball cheaply and that is the other side of the coin. We did well to create the initial gap, draw Blackburn on and make the space to play but often failed to make it count with confidence and quality low. Instead of spreading the play or finding the forward run, the players look backwards for one too many passes and the move dies.

However, this was the intent throughout and we managed it on a number of occasions through better intent and tempo of our play in defensive areas. We just continue to lack the final piece.

In terms of the other side of things, we were happy to go more direct when the occasion called and Stansfield proved an excellent outlet for us, regularly running off the shoulder of McLoughlin (LCB) to give us an option in the channel and it worked well. Again, the execution of the final moment wasn’t always there but the ability to find the forward pass and move us into the final third was positive.

For Blackburn, their plan was to create a 3-2-5, work the ball wide and move from there.

The primary plan tended to involve looking to pull the full-back inside against the ‘10’ and work the ball towards the channel. This was a regular feature of their play down the left-hand side where Pickering (LWB) would receive, Iwata would step inside with Cantwell (LAM) and Klarer would go up against Ohashi. For the most part, Klarer won that battle and won it comfortably.

As the game wore on, they tried their luck more down the other side and this is where problems began for Blues with Ohashi having the beating of Robinson. It gave them more of a foothold and allowed Alebiosu and Morishita to get more involved.

They were good at creating the triangles once the ball went wide, the ‘10’ driving into the channel (marked predominantly by Iwata and Paik) while Ohashi dropped off into space (Robinson passing onto Doyle) and this would leave Laird marking Alebiosu (RWB), who was bigger and stronger and more powerful than most on the pitch. Laird did well, to his credit. Cantwell would occupy the striking position with Pickering free on the far side.

What this would do was draw over both central midfielders and leave Iwata outnumbered at the other end of the box if Blues failed to deal with things, as shown for the double chance for Blackburn in the first half:

One additional note on Blues’ plans was our corners in the first half. We had various and almost every single one went short, like we were looking to create an opportunity before Blackburn were set and looking to play our way into a better position. This didn’t work to great effect in terms of chances but the quick moves did create better angles for deliveries.

Finally, there two positional changes, one for each side.

Scott Wharton was replaced by Yuri Ribeiro in the second half. This saw McLoughlin and Pickering move inside with Ribeiro moving to LWB.

Blues brought on Osayi-Samuel late on. While a straight swap for Iwata, this did see Klarer move up front with Priske at the same time with Gray dropping to LB and Fujimoto playing as an inside left. A case of going for it with Gray and Osayi-Samuel having license to get forward regularly.

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The performance

I want to touch on the game before I get to the main talking point. In some ways, it was a microcosm of what we want to be and what we’ve become.

After the shambles that was Derby County away, we needed to start over and that’s how I viewed this match. I wasn’t expecting swashbuckling, beautiful football but I wanted to see a performance in which players committed to their jobs, were more positive about their game and hopefully secured a confidence-boosting result.

In some ways, we got that. As noted in the shape section, we had a gameplan that generally played out across two-thirds of the pitch. We got the ball down, we generally played forward, we found the gaps and got players running in behind. We were fairly decent out of possession and you could see the work ethic on show. It wasn’t perfect and we caused our own problems at points but for the most part, it was okay.

But it all just felt... a little soulless? That lack of confidence and quality and aggression and drive was on show. The final cross or delivery was weak. That driving run into the area missing. The shots at goal tame. Nothing felt like it was done with venom, just players going through the motions. The intent was there until it wasn’t.

And then came the substitutions. I’ve rarely questioned Davies on this point because it often felt like he was ahead of the game and in control of these things. It doesn’t half feel like he’s going through the motions a little on this front. I said yesterday via text that our arses have dropped and I think that also applies to our manager too.

The goal too. Nobody dug anybody out. They scored and heads just dropped. Everybody just looked either in front of them or towards the floor. We lose the ball cheaply despite the ball being played in the direction of three footballers around one Blackburn defender and it’s as if we gave up a little. Going through the motions.

The longer the game wore on, the more vanilla we became. We had one good move but beyond that, it never felt like we could step up a gear and make it happen and if anything, key players shrank with the rest of the side. I don’t think it was tiredness so much as just mental fatigue. How often does Paik slip over the ball once, let alone three times? And Doyle misplacing simple passes. Heads and arses have dropped.

In August, we played Blackburn and without creating chance after chance, we played with an air of control that made you feel like we might come on strong. Blackburn didn’t have a single shot on goal for 50 minutes. And while we didn’t have many efforts of our own, we still had the belief that we would come on strong. Dykes replaced Osayi-Samuel, Doyle replaced Anderson and Willumson later replaced Neumann. We earned our first moment and the belief took us to a late winner.

Just over seven months on and the vibe is completely different. Less control, less belief and a defeat that felt more inevitable with each passing minute.

The crowd

This felt different.

Early doors, the fans weren’t reacting to what was going on during the game but instead rattled off various chants that were nothing to do with the game, like 5-10 minutes doing the Cardiff dance, the Emery song and other things. Nothing bad about it necessarily – it was creating some form of atmosphere – but it showed how fans have stopped caring so much about the football itself.

Frustrations were evident for those that were watching. Marvin Ducksch increasingly received the ire of fans. Jay Stansfield’s refusal to shoot from a promising position didn’t help. Tommy Doyle received stick but miscuing a couple of passes. It clearly got to the players too with Stansfield, Doyle and Jack Robinson all giving it a bit back to the crowd. Stansfield later did his best to get people onside as we chased the game while Carlos Vicente did the same later on.

At full-time, there were loud boos from what was a half-empty stadium, many giving up the ghost. Chris Davies, to his credit, faced the music and ensured his players did too, bringing them into a huddle before leading the players around the pitch, accompanied by his captain, Christoph Klarer, in the same way they’ve always done. Say you want about Davies, but he has always been a stand-up guy in that respect. The response was mixed with some booing and shouting expletives while others offered support and applause.

Meanwhile, I’m told a few punches were thrown around the ground. I’m also told that people walked up to the director’s box to vent their frustration to Craig Gardner and Jeremy Dale.

It all may seem over the top. It is, really.

But ans were sold a dream that has not become reality. It’s not that we’re not winning, it’s the way we’re not winning. We’ve become a hollow shell of the all-conquering League One side, the idea and principles remaining for the most part but the competence, confidence and quality missing. Management, recruitment, players are all under fire.

While social media has been noisy, those within stadiums have remained patient and bullish. Performances and results haven’t improved, however and that frustration is beginning to pour out in other ways. It’s hard to see how Davies comes back from this.

A part of me wouldn’t mind his final moment as Blues manager being him leading the players around the pitch to face the music, remaining honourable even in defeat. My concern is that it’s either going to end after a thumping at Ipswich – I’m really struggling to see how we get a result from that – or at the end of the season when the remaining goodwill has well and truly gone. Either way, every passing game makes it feel less and less likely he will take us forward into next season.

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Opposition

Blackburn did what they needed to do and did it fairly well.

They’re not a brilliant side and definitely a little short across the pitch. In truth, a confident Blues wins this game. But they are together, they dig in and they’ve got a couple of excellent players that ultimately proved the difference.

I enjoyed the performance of Morishita in the half right attacking position, showing some lovely touches and doing brilliantly to create the chances for Cantwell and Pickering, as well as the goal itself. Ohashi is another I’ve been a fan of for a while, a bustling centre-forward that maximises what he has and enjoyed himself against Robinson. Cantwell remains an excellent player when he’s on it. And I thought the lad in midfield, Baradji, showed glimpses of what he is capable of.

Rovers are now six points clear of the drop zone with six to play. On this evidence, they might just be organised enough to keep themselves in the division.

Next up: Ipswich Town (a)

I’m not looking forward to this. I’m actually grateful I’m no longer going the game. I’m struggling to see anything other than Ipswich scoring 3+ goals.

What do we do? I’m struggling to predict at this point but I’ll guess at Solis, Vicente, Gray and Priske replacing Doyle, Roberts, Osman and Ducksch. Possibly even Osayi-Samuel and / or Panzo coming in at full-back (Laird playing a full 90 and starting again three days later is something I’m unsure we’ll risk. I wouldn’t even be shocked if we see a change at centre-back.

Whatever the selection, I think it ends in tears. This group have nothing left about them. Our season is done and I just hope I’m wrong and we do manage to put up a fight.

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The difficulty I found post-Derby County was that my wider thoughts were beginning to feel like an end of season piece. While I’m aware that the season is effectively over – we would probably have to win all seven remaining matches to give ourselves a chance of the play-offs – it’s not officially over. The manager remains in place. Time to take a step back from those thoughts... for now.

So what can I do instead? I had little odds and sods sort of ideas but figured I’d leave it to the public. In the words of the American Nightmare: What do you wanna talk about?

I’ve had questions in via Twitter and Substack about Chris Davies, recruitment, the players and a couple of other bits. Let’s answer some questions.

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Gabriel Sutton @GabSutton

If you had to put a % on it, what chance Chris Davies starts next season in charge?

Let’s answer the question that is most on the minds of Birmingham City supporters. Will Chris Davies start next season in charge?

My gut feeling at this point is no. The summer offers opportunity for change and we’ve gotten poorer as the season has gone on. It will also potentially be less expensive to tell a new manager to work with what he’s got rather than trying to overhaul things.

It’s difficult to put a percentage on it. I’ll do a cop out of an answer.

1: Results. The club wanted the play-offs and we’ve failed in that. Mark against CD.

2: Data. In many respects, strong. But also weakened as the season has continued with some glaring issues. I’ll go 50-50.

3: Supporter happiness. The tide is turning against Davies with unhappiness reaching stadiums. Concerning.

4: Previous work. Incredible in League One. Strong across the early months of the Championship season. Suspect this goes in his favour.

5: Cost. Cheaper to get rid of a manager than overhaul the squad, right?

6: Change now or later? Better to start next season afresh or give somebody 10 games going into next season? Not worth the added pressure of “you’ve got to impress to keep your job”.

7: Stability. Most sides that do well tend to progress over longer periods through stability. A lot of promotions are won by managers that were employed the previous campaign.

So four out of seven against. One 50-50. Two in his favour. Probably more points to be made but on this model, I make that about 35.7%.

I still like Davies. I think he has been a big positive for the football club with his ideas, drive and the culture he has created but it’s hard for any manager to turn the ship back around once the sea takes it. A mix of poor decision making and pressure has left the boat creaking, the sails weakened and with a couple of holes that desperately need covering as they travel choppier waters and while at one point it felt like everybody was in it together trying to patch things up, it’s beginning to feel like Davies is increasingly alone trying to find the way to shore. It’s not quite at mutiny levels, but belief in the cause is waning and the decision to throw Davies overboard is the easiest one to make.

Lee Wildman @lee_wild31man

Who do you think the club will target as the next manager if Davies is to be let go?

I’ll be straight up here and say I don’t know.

I think the wider conversation is about how the club is set up at present and what they believe they need.

Craig Gardner’s job title has been changed to Director of Football from Technical Director meaning he should – in theory – have more say over the club’s identity and culture and recruitment and everything else. Are the club so confident in Craig Gardner’s ability to oversee club operations that they believe they can change the “manager” job title to a “head coach” job title and employ a coach?

Or, is the job title simply nothing more than semantics and the club do in fact still feel they need a manager to wield a level of control over the identity, culture, recruitment and structure of the football department and continue to use Craig Gardner as more of a facilitator between themselves and board level?

Personally, I’m not entirely convinced we have the wider footballing structure above the manager to go down the route that a Brentford, Brighton etc have. You have to be the smartest people in the room – or at least have the clearest convictions and ideologies – and I’m not at all confident that we have that. I think we still need a manager that can help transform the club on that front while additions are made higher up to support us moving towards a new era. Personally, I would champion bringing in another manager if they decide to make the decision on Chris Davies.

If we do go down the head coach role, I’ll be fascinated to see where the leadership and direction comes from to create the identity and culture that proved so important during our promotion campaign.

MAC @markc_london

Can Chris Davies change?

I enjoyed this question. So many possibilities. Is this his wife asking? His kids? Does he need to swap his clothes? Alright, I’ll stop amusing myself.

It’s a tough one to answer and there are various different ways of answering this question.

I don’t think he should change his principles. His demands, the culture he sets, his ideology are massively important and while tweaks can be made to adapt – and he has shown he is willing to adapt within the framework he created – it is important that any manager is true to themselves on that front. If a manager is full of belief in what they want to do and how they want to do it – and this is more than just formations and tactics – then it is easier for players to follow and those that are successful are usually far clearer in how they communicate what they want / need.

Emotionally, it’s difficult to say. I think Davies is very clear on who he is, what he expects and the demands he sets but he has also rubbed a few up the wrong way and even acknowledged he can be too intense. In some ways, our job is the perfect job because you have the money and backing to shape things as you want but it comes with the caveat of a lack of time, bringing an added pressure from the external elements and means mistakes are heightened. There are definitely things he will have got wrong and it’s learning to manage those situations to avoid players being cast aside, the kind of man management traits that managers do have to learn.

Tactically, which I suspect is the primary question here, is a tough one. He has adapted on numerous occasions but often within the same structure. I’ll get to some of those tweaks in the question below. The problem is that the data was excellent for most of the season and it was about refinement, but I think we’ve lost a bit of ourselves trying to find the answer to our problems and the data has dropped off a little since.

I do what conversations are happening around him. People talk about backroom staff but I also wonder what the conversations are with the departments above him. Is anybody taking him aside, settling things and looking to regroup or are the conversations of a more demanding nature? In any case, does Davies listen or does he continue to do his own thing?

The difficulty answering whether Chris Davies can change is that we are only judge on what we see and not what we can’t, which is probably just as important.

howard lane @howardlane1

How do you educate fans? “No plan b” “Too stubborn” “Has favourites” “Anyone could have won league 1” All can easily be rebuffed with stats and educated eyes. How can a club ever change its philosophy if it’s fans are reluctant to go through the process?

Barbs @barbs_paul

You missed “PE teacher”. The ‘anyone could’ve won L1’ is the most ridiculous. If it’s that simple, why wouldn’t owners simply splash cash on players, then put the kit man in charge, knowing they’re guaranteed promotion?

Monkey @monkeyH78

Overcoached

So, Howard Lane asked the original question and Paul Barber and “Monkey” followed on to create quite an enjoyable thread.

I always enjoy the “no plan b” one because for most fans, it essentially means going more direct and finding the big man or the channels. Lyndon Dykes was Plan B. Lukas Jutkiewicz was Plan B. August Priske will probably be seen as a Plan B.

As with the answer to the question above, there are definitely nuances to answering why we don’t go with more obvious change stylistically, both in terms of what ownership want and also the data elements. But to say Chris Davies doesn’t have a Plan B is always a bad one.

The most famous one was after Shrewsbury last season but there have been so many changes to the side, be it from the start or within games. In fact, as I’ve referenced before, what Davies tried to do in pre-season 2024 was different to what we started the season as we simplified the style a little to suit. There are things such as Barnsley last year when we brought on Lukas Jutkiewicz and moved to a 3-5-2 on a crap pitch. There are various games where Leonard and Paik have been employed as the 10 to give us more control when we’ve lost it in games. Going to the back five and bringing on Grant Hanley numerous times last year. Using full-backs to invert. We now play with both wingers wide rather than one inside. The various games we have gone on the attack while chasing a goal and moved the team around, such as Iwata to CB and a winger at RB or two wingers at WB. Iwata becoming a rampaging RB-cum-10. We constantly adapt within games.

They don’t all work. No manager is so good that they can make every decision work. But to say there is no alternative plan and we just do exactly the same thing over and over is incorrect.

Having favourites? Which manager doesn’t have favourites? Managers have a group of reliable footballers that start as many games as possible. The problem, if anything, is that Davies doesn’t have enough favourites this season, because he’s struggled to find reliability.

And boy is Barbs correct with his line about League One. Sure, most managers would have had a pretty good chance of success in League One. But that level of success, starting from scratch and breaking numerous league records? That’s not something any manager could do, let alone one in his first job. Chris Davies deserves far more credit than he gets for last season because it wasn’t just winning the league – it was winning the league with one hundred and eleven fucking points.

But let’s answer the question: How can a club ever change its philosophy if its fans are reluctant to go through the process?

The simple answer is communication. We saw how fans got on board with the plans shared after Wayne Rooney’s appointment and Amy Merrick’s presentation went down really well during Open Houses. We do an Open House every six months or so, so sharing details during those meetups can go a long way. It doesn’t have to be every detail, but enough to keep fans on the journey and understand the approach. Can we hear more from those above Chris Davies (and Amy Merrick) to explain the wider project from a footballing perspective and how things work?

Ultimately, winning is the primary objective and will always be the thing that fans judge a team and its manager and players by. But the additional communication absolutely helps bring people on board and provide understanding for when things don’t quite go to plan.

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Jamie (Substack)

What manager, if any, would be doing a better job with our current squad? (doesn’t mean X manager is better than Davies)

This is a difficult one to answer.

Do I think a lot of managers could produce better results with this squad and have us a little higher up the table? Probably. Do I think a lot of those same managers would produce better trying to play an open, expansive, possession-heavy, high pressing style that produces positive underlying data to support the process the club are trying to achieve? No.

I realise how this must read to some fans but there probably is a version of this where Gary Rowett is managing this group, keeping us tight, organised and breaking more efficiently to earn more results but the data to support where we are in the process would be worse and wouldn’t breed the front foot, winning culture the ownership want to instil.

The question I would be fascinated to understand is not just which manager would do a better job with this squad, but which manager would do a better job with this squad in a way that also creates the kind of data that suggests we are about to explode. We may need to persuade somebody above the paygrade of a top half Championship outfit to learn that one.

S P @THEsamparish

Tough one to start… is it wrong players/wrong system, wrong players/right system or right players/wrong system? And if not CD, who? Thanks for all your hardwork, pal #bcfc

Thank you for your kind words, Sam.

This really is a tough one.

I don’t want to blame the system, but I also don’t want to pile everything on the players and absolve Chris Davies of criticism. There is more to this than just quality of player and system.

But, let’s take the question as it is. The system can work. It has worked for numerous clubs at this level. You play, you keep the ball, you create your line of five in attack to stretch and move the opposition defence, draw your opponents on and you exploit the spaces. You press as a unit in a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 shape, narrow the pitch, force the ball a particular way and when you win it, you exploit the space that is open because the opposition defence aren’t in rest state. We play some intricate patterns but it isn’t rocket science.

We do have key issues when it comes to personnel in this system and so much of it is physical. Outside of Klarer, we have lacked a centre-back that is reliable as a defender, be that winning duels or defending space. In midfield, we’ve lacked physicality, found players going missing during games and struggled to cover the ground. Our strikers’ duels per 90 and duels won % are amongst the worst in the division. Priske is at least committing to duels but struggling to win them at present.

Then you come to the other core issue, which probably does factor in that physicality and willingness / ability to take or ride bumps under pressure in tight spaces, which is being able to punch passes through the lines to players that can take the ball and be reliable with it in central positions. Last year we had May, Dowell and Willumson who would drop in, retain the ball and find a team-mate. This year, we’ve had variations of Stansfield, Iwata and Ducksch or even Roberts, Gray, Anderson, Paik, Doyle and whoever else in those half spaces. While Ducksch has shown his vision and class in flashes with his one touch work, we haven’t had reliable options to push the ball into and create that separation for the opposition, which has enabled opponents to force us wider and stunt our attacking play. That then causes issues with the third man running and also allows opponents to press us higher, knowing we struggle with the outball.

But how can a system be correct if the players are wrong for it? Surely a system is supposed to work for the players available, enhancing their strengths and hiding their weaknesses? And I have no argument for that. This would again be a question for Davies / higher ups about what they want.

The truth is, there isn’t a system I’ve seen that makes me feel entirely comfortable.

I don’t want to discuss a back three. In a 3-4-3, we don’t have players comfortable in those half spaces, midfielders that can cover that much ground and a striker that retains the ball so it’s a non-starter. A 3-5-2 would lead to too much separation between the front two – who won’t keep hold of the ball under pressure – and the midfield, who aren’t the most athletic. I think they would have to be very cleverly designed systems to ensure we are a force going forward.

As for the others, does a 4-3-3 work? I think the Derby game showed the difficulties we can have when forwards are left isolated so it would have to be a narrow system and require the full-backs to be aggressive. The 4-2-3-1 is always going to become either a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 because we lack a natural 10 that floats between the lines and tend to go with somebody either comfortable deeper or a second striker. And so we have 4-4-2, but a condensed version that sees the wingers have license to step infield and join the front two, perhaps similar to how we worked things under Garry Monk all those years back. We lack physicality so keep the units closer together rather than being separated and let our most creative players, our wingers, link together more across the pitch.

But none of these feel particularly ideal given our ambitions. So I guess the answer is wrong players and wrong system for those players.

Jon @bluejon74

Do managers rely to much on stats Davis football on the eyes awful

I guess the thing to note here is that the data we get access to is absolutely nothing like the data management teams at the top level get access too. What they are able to see would probably blow our minds and it’s why they employ a number of analysts to keep on top of that data in real time and feed it to the team.

Different managers will take different approaches but I suspect the majority – particularly those at or on their way towards the top level – will be reading and analysing data in real time to ensure they are on the right path. Sure, gut feeling will play a part at times, but the data will tell a stronger story because we can only see so much with our own eyes.

Does good data always mean perfect football? No. Data, spreadsheets and other numbers aren’t sexy to the majority of match going fans, who turn up hoping to see Christophe Dugarry or Frank Worthington levels of skill and moments of pure magic but data and process is more repeatable and that leads to success. Unfortunately, we aren’t getting the repeatable processes right, particularly on the road, and we can often look cack as a result.

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KRO.FEA @KROFEA

How much have the recruitment team messed up? Davies came in with a high press, high energy mantra and we were told players would be signed for this. Doyle and Duck are the exact opposite. Has Davies been let down? But also, he said he signs off on final decisions so I’m stuck

Onto recruitment and a solid start here. Welcome to the confusion of Birmingham City 2025-26.

We got things very wrong in the summer in hindsight. At the end of last season, we knew we needed a replacement for Ben Davies, a new defensive midfielder, a replacement for Kieran Dowell, a left winger and a partner for Jay Stansfield for our starting XI. By January, we were still looking for four of those. When you consider our starting XI, we are still heavily reliant on the same four players as last season, which leads you to question exactly how much we have improved as a collective. Huge improvement in terms of natural talent, but as a collective, less so.

As I understand it, Davies has a fair bit of control over things at Blues in order to shape the identity, culture and structure of the side and that includes recruitment. And I suspect he does a fair bit of work in the recruitment area, watching and analysing players that are brought to his attention, so it would be hard to say he’s completely blameless.

He said in the summer he wanted three things: Athleticism, improvement from set-pieces and creators and finishers. While the recruitment team can probably point to achievement in those areas on a purely individual level, we struggled to enhance the collective by adding players who enhance the quality of those around them and left that to the same individuals that got us up.

It’s difficult to say Davies has been let down because we don’t know exactly how much say he has in the window. And I’ve no doubt we missed out on a number of targets and perhaps the options further down the list were ultimately less suited to what we wanted. But you’d have thought somebody somewhere would have understood more about the squad we were due to end up with, balanced the finances better and changed course a little. Then again, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

We had a really poor summer window looking back and we’ve paid the price with a disappointing year as far as reality compared to ambition is concerned. It happens, and the aim has to be to avoid similar issues moving forward.

Will Daniels (Substack)

What’s the biggest recruitment blind spot at Blues right now, not just in terms of position, but in terms of profile? How is that holding them back in a tactical sense?

A very good question.

I’m going to focus on defensive profiles here. Perhaps not a huge surprise given it’s easier to analyse data for more progressive footballers than it is for defensive ones.

Here is a list of the goalkeepers and defenders signed since the summer of 2024:

Ryan Allsop

Bailey Peacock-Farrell

James Beadle

Alfons Sampsted

Bright Osayi-Samuel

Christoph Klarer

Ben Davies

Grant Hanley

Phil Neumann

Eiran Cashin

Jack Robinson

Jonathan Panzo

Alex Cochrane

Lee Myung-jae

Kai Wagner

Firstly, a lot of players. Secondly, arguably not great success. Thirdly, only three signed permanently aged 25 or under, so development opportunities are minimal.

We’ve signed three goalkeepers and need a new one next season. Two right-backs but Tomoki Iwata has spent most of the season there. We’ve a real problem identifying the left-sided centre-back to take us forward with physicality a real problem be it speed or dominance.

Going into next season, it’s likely only five of that group will be involved and only two will be regulars if recruitment is done right.

It’s imperative we are ruthless with recruitment in this area come the summer if the aim is to try and win promotion and ensure we get those goalkeeper, centre-back and defensive midfield positions right.

Matt (Substack)

Lots of talk of us needing ‘Championship Experience’ but wouldn’t that add more older players to an already aging squad. Surprised Blues didn’t look at the growing number of clubs investing in younger players and long term upside (Sunderland, Strasbourg, Como). Data driven but clearly a philosophy on buying younger players with upsell options.

Okay, two points here.

The first one, Championship experience. The likelihood is that yes, adding Championship experience may increase the age of the squad. However, it’s not impossible to find players 25 and under with good Championship experience. Sunderland have loads. Billy Mitchell is 25 and started 137 Championship games. We have Ethan Laird and Lee Buchanan with good experience at the level. It’s not impossible to find guys that know what they’re doing at the level and aren’t “aging”.

The second one, philosophy. There are two issues with us doing this. The first is that we would have to be the smart ones in the room and while we have the data tools, do we have the smartest people in the room leading that operation? I’m not sure. Secondly, while it’s a great philosophy, it doesn’t match the whims of the owner, who wants to win now. While I’m personally on board with the idea of us competing in that area and benefitting us long term, it would create confusion against the motives the club have put out in public.

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Raouf Swedek @Raouf_B9

I’d like to ask about the GK situation and how you’d solve this ongoing issue at Blues.

Blues have signed three goalkeepers since relegation: Bailey Peacock-Farrell, Ryan Allsop and James Beadle. All three have been data darlings for various reasons. Peacock-Farrell was an abject failure and a costly one given we paid him up in January. Allsop was an overriding success last season but his flaws came to the fore early this season. Beadle has been okay but he has never quite done enough to make people understand why he was signed for a promotion push.

In terms of this season, I can’t say I’ve been overly fussed. I think Allsop would provide an experience and composure we’ve probably needed at times but it’s easy to forget that early in the season he was proving weak as a shot stopper, wasn’t claiming anything in his area and his distribution wasn’t proving so strong that it overrode those issues. Beadle has been fine. His game has definitely improved as the season has progressed in terms of his actual goalkeeping but it has been a season littered with enough moments to leave fans questioning him while his composure has slowly gone out of the window, leaving everybody a little nervy.

In terms of moving forward, there was a part of me that loved the link to Sam Johnstone the other day. I don’t know enough about his game to say he’s a perfect fit but I’m looking at a 33-year-old that knows the area and has played plenty of football in the top two tiers over the last decade. I’m more than aware it’s an unlikely one, but if we could attract somebody that would walk in with that sort of confidence, knowing they belong, I would be a huge fan. John Ruddy vibes.

Andrew Hipkins @Andrew_Hipkins

Why dosent Davies rate Tommy Doyle and is his opinion on the same page as the Birmingham City fans?

The Tommy Doyle situation has been a funny one.

I don’t think it’s that Davies doesn’t rate him. I do believe he sees the qualities that Doyle provides, particularly in his ability to come onto play and make something happen, and I think Davies sees a player that is strong when the game opens up, meaning there is more space for Doyle to play those longer passes, not to mention his set-piece delivery. And he does step on and take gambles in the press that Davies will have liked.

I think the issue is primarily that Doyle has some clear weaknesses and we aren’t well equipped to cover those weaknesses, which exacerbates them.

He’s not brilliant with his back to play or in tight spaces, preferring to take possession with the game ahead of him, but we lack the support network around him to make that a reality across 90 minutes because we don’t have enough footballers able to take such weight off his shoulders, which leaves Doyle in positions he’s less comfortable in. We actually began using Doyle as part of a back three in possession with Paik just in front which helped but again, it’s having the options available for him to play forward into and we’ve struggled on that front.

And then there is the physical element. When Doyle played as the deepest midfielder, he was covering space for Patrick Roberts and Tomoki Iwata and covering a lot of ground that most defensive midfielders are more comfortable in. It’s not that he can’t get about the pitch at Championship level, but he’s covering more space than a player with his attributes ought to be and it made him look weaker.

Could he have replaced Paik? Maybe. But then you lose the one player the team can truly bounce the ball against in any position and retain it, or you shift Paik into the defensive midfield slot and endure the same problem of physicality across the midfield.

My honest belief is that Doyle was signed to compete or work with Paik while somebody else carried the load next to them, but we never managed that and it means that while Doyle possesses a number of admirable qualities, the team around him hasn’t been able to function in a way that consistently allows him to showcase what he does best and so Davies has stuck with the tried and tested in order to find function.

Steven Lewis @SteveyLou

How much do you attribute the struggles of Kyogo, Stanno, Priske, and Vicente to Chris Davies and our style of play? In other words, am I gaslighting myself to think that all of them could excel in this league under a different manager?

I don’t think you’re gaslighting yourself at all.

We have a collection of strikers and wingers that have the ability to be producing more than they are at present, but the structure around them has weakened which has reduced the opportunities they are having and forced them to play games they are less familiar with. We are beginning to rely on individualism rather than cohesive team play which is always problematic for forwards, particularly those that aren’t the biggest, quickest and strongest footballers – there’s a reason why Ibrahim Osman tends to look at our biggest threat at the moment because his speed is enough to override other problems, reminiscent of when Onel Hernandez looked great under Lee Bowyer.

We saw earlier in the season when the team was fit, firing and confident that this shape can work for the forwards. Jay Stansfield was bagging goals, Marvin Ducksch was able to play his one touch stuff with bodies running off him while the wingers looked excellent. As the season has gone on, we’ve found it increasingly difficult to play with that confidence, drawing teams on and punching passes through gaps to play quickly and it has affected our forwards’ games.

While I’m not holding out huge hope for Kyogo – he did have opportunities and struggled to take them – the other three are good enough to perform at this level but they need more support from those behind them in order to open space and produce things quickly – in or out of this specific set up.

Lee Wildman @lee_wild31man

Who should blues target from the EFL to strengthen the squad for next season as the thing we lack is experienced EFL/championship players

I’m probably not across things as much as I would like to be on this front, so I may not be the best person to answer. I’m therefore going to do the lazy thing and use Transfermarkt to look at the players due to be out of contract and there are a couple of standouts.

I’ve mentioned him once in here and I will say that I’m a huge fan of Billy Mitchell. I think he’s been proper every time he has played against us and it appears he may be out of contract this summer. If he is, I think he should be under serious consideration. Good size, mobile, competent in possession and something of a leader.

Elsewhere, I wonder where Ben Wilmot, Harry Winks, James Bree (DVB) and Casper De Norre (who I believe has an extra year on his deal) sit. Not exactly standouts in terms of the seasons they’ve had, but players with strong experience, generally fit and able to navigate the level, which may help others.

As for those out of contract in 2027, it’s a little bit noisy because I’m sure many will be looking to sign new deals. But can you tempt, for example, Bristol City to accept a deal for Jason Knight or Max Bird with a year left on their deals? Where does Lloyd Jones sit at Charlton? Ben Nelson, the young lad at Leicester is on the list. There may be players we can tempt with the right offer.

I’m sure there is talent in League One – Reyes Cleary’s speed would be a lot of fun to watch – but given the “win now” philosophy of the club, I’m not sure I want to look at League One as far as improving the spine of the team is concerned just because it will very noisy, very quickly and I would like to see guys next to Klarer, Paik and Stansfield that can come in and handle that pressure immediately, reading the game and situations and helping to lead by example when the going is tough.

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Ryan1875sam @ryan1875sam

What players do you think will be gone in the summer Ryan.

Okay, let’s look at the obvious ones.

James Beadle, Tommy Doyle and Ibrahim Osman are on loan. They are leaving at the end of the season. I think Jonathan Panzo can be included in that. I suspect Lee Buchanan will be allowed to depart on loan given his injury woes, just to get out and play. Taylor Gardner-Hickman and Scott Wright are also likely to move on.

I think so many others depend on what happens in the dugout.

At the moment, we head into next season looking at:

GK: Ryan Allsop

RB: Ethan Laird; Bright Osayi-Samuel

CB: Christoph Klarer; Phil Neumann; Jack Robinson

LB: Kai Wagner; Alex Cochrane

DM: Tomoki Iwata; Paik Seung-Ho; Marc Leonard

AM: Kanya Fujimoto

WG: Patrick Roberts; Carlos Vicente; Demarai Gray

ST: Jay Stansfield; August Priske; Marvin Ducksch; Kyogo Furuhashi

If Davies sticks around, it’s plausible that he looks to move on Bright Osayi-Samuel to open up wages and bring in a first-choice right-back in lieu of Ethan Laird’s injury woes. One of Phil Neumann or Jack Robinson could be moved on. Marc Leonard is surely out. Kanya Fujimoto and Kyogo Furuhashi can barely get a kick. There is also talk of Marvin Ducksch heading abroad. And what of Jhon Solis, whose loan could be made permanent?

If Davies doesn’t stick around, does the plan change with the club pushing to get a new manager to work with a lot of what he’s left with and build around it? After all, moving on some of the wages for players not of prime selling age won’t be easy and may require some work with middle eastern or eastern european outfits.

There’s a lot of work to do this summer, but can the club really afford to leave themselves needing another 10+ players with the outlay we have already made? Some are going to have stick about, you’d think.

The Kombi Chronicles @kombichronicles

Which all the effort and money spent to make the academy Cat 1, how do you see them progressing next season? Do you see the club attempting to hire a young coach who’s philosophy matches the boards ambitions and could potentially step up to the first team one day?

This is going to sound very cynical, but I’m honestly expecting a friend of a friend to come in, be that a friend of Mike Rigg or Craig Gardner. Generally, this is how things work.

Since the departure of Kristjaan Speakman, we have employed Paul Williams (somebody Gardner and Lee Carsley knew), Liam Daish (well known by the club for years), Mark Kennedy (knows Gardner through agency and was employed as Lee Bowyer’s assistant partly because of this) and Mike Rigg (known to Garry Cook). It’s quite a common path to take. We even had Martin O’Connor as loans manager for similar reasons.

Perhaps there will be a full review and a decision made to bring in the right man rather than a well-placed one, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the club do hire somebody well known to those with power at Blues.

In terms of progression, I think we have to be patient. The change from Cat 2 to Cat 1 was always going to be tricky to navigate in terms of results but it was also a year in which a number of “senior” academy players had moved on and made way for those in the age groups below, so plenty were stepping up at the same time. When you consider those that have stepped out on loan this year, we’ve had five go to the National League and only two – Ben Pendleton and Ben Wodskou in their second loans towards the bottom of the National League – impress. Daniel Isichei was on our bench earlier in the season and has barely kicked a ball for Tamworth. I’m always iffy calling players “ready”, but clearly they are a rung or two below what we need right now.

I’m hopeful that in a couple of years time (maybe a few years), when our footballing department is better set up and the culture and identity is ingrained in the club from top to bottom, we can enjoy seeing some of our young lads begin to make their way into the first team set up more regularly.

https://buymeacoffee.com/ryandeeney

James @JamesMcClair_

Which Championship/League One players in your opinion are a season away from exploding?

A wide ranging question to tackle.

The way I’m taking this question is essentially, who have I watched this season that looks like they’ve got a little something and could really produce next year. I’m not going to go hipster or anything here, I’ve watched what I’ve watched and the chances are other people are more than aware of these names.

I really liked watching Divine Mukasa in a couple of his starts and while he probably needs a full season behind him, he’s a player that could become a really nice pick up in the Championship for somebody next year. An easy one that has already somewhat explooded but continues to look a really good player on the up is Richard Kone and I think QPR have got a great pick-up there. And Othmane Maamma really excited me when he played against us for Watford, a player I had genuinely never heard of when I saw his name in the XI but really impressed in both games.

Hopefully August Priske or Jay Stansfield join that list next year.

Jaxehl @Ajh1972258480

How do you think Tamworth and Moors will go on next season?

Final question, and one that relates to my primary pastime: the National League. I genuinely watch highlights of every single game and regularly watch full matches as part of a couple of roles I have outside of my full-time job. It’s something I love doing.

Onto the question and two clubs going in different directions at present.

Tamworth are an interesting case. They remain a part-time outfit – although manager Andy Peaks is now full-time in his role – and have one of the smaller budgets at the level so it’s all about how much they can push themselves. The cup draw with Tottenham Hotspur was huge for the club financially and they have put that to good use but there is a long way to go.

They are likely to finish in the top half of the National League for the second season running. They have an experienced, proper core of players in Jas Singh, Tom Tonks, Haydn Hollis, Luke Fairlamb, Ben Milnes, Matt Curley and the returning Dan Creaney that lead and guide and so many players have stepped up around them with Beck-Ray Enoru and Kwaku Donkor making moves into full-time football this season while youngster Oli Lynch has shown real progression during his loan spell from Luton Town after a tough start.

I think more of the same is plausible. They know what they are, know what they do, the culture is very strong at the club and unless there is a lot of unnecessary change – a departure for Peaks and a replacement who rips everything up – they look to set to continue in the same vein.

Solihull Moors are in a really weird spot.

Since the departure of Craig Cope, who is now doing excellent work at AFC Wimbledon, things have gradually gone downhill. Andy Whing did wonderful work in his first year but the appointments of Stephen Ward and Matt Taylor saw things take a turn for the worst. Chris Millington’s early work in charge undid a lot of the damage caused but he hasn’t wider scope to make major change during the campaign and when you’re playing catch up, it’s inevitable that you will be caught up at some point. While turnovers in non-league are normal, only two of the most used 16 players from 2023-24 remain, showing the scale of change that has occurred.

I get the impression that Darryl Eales is still happy to play benefactor but the purse strings aren’t quite as open as they once were and the challenge for Millington will be to move on most of his squad in the summer and then lead on recruitment in order to create a squad that is much stronger physically and has a better cohesion and culture about it, presumably having to manage up to get what he needs.

I hope he’s a success. Eales is a good guy, Millington proved during his time at Halifax that he can develop a good football team with time and he was always open and honest about how he saw things. He’s got good staff around him and there is ability in the building with the likes of Alex Whitmore and Jamey Osborne remaining as leaders. Some tough decisions will need making but I’m tempted to say they will be okay next year.

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Blues put in arguably their worst display of the season and were deservedly behind when Rhian Brewster headed home at the back post. If anything, the scoreline only looked like getting worse second half.

Chris Davies made two changes to the side that failed to beat ten-man Sheffield United, Jonathan Panzo and Demarai Gray returning in place of Patrick Roberts and Jhon Solis as Blues changed shape. Kyogo Furuhashi returned to the squad in place of Kanya Fujimoto.

The hosts started much the stronger and came close on a couple of occasions early on. A cheap giveaway allowed Brewster to curl narrowly wide of the far post. Christoph Klarer did well to deny Patrick Agyemang at the near post after a simple switch of play but the American got in behind the Blues captain moments later and James Beadle was on hand to make the save.

And that was about that. Blues offered nothing in possession but Derby weren’t playing with a killer edge.

That all changed a couple of minutes before half-time. Agyemang and Klarer had another scrap and Derby created the overload on the left. The cross to the back post was headed home by an unmarked Brewster, confusing Beadle who just didn’t react.

It almost got worse. Another cheap giveaway from Blues allowed Sam Szmodics to break in behind and his cross fortunately just evaded the toe of Agyemang.

Blues changed shape at half-time and had an early positive break, Ibrahim Osman driving through but being unable to find Jay Stansfield at the end of it. That was about as good as it got. Straight after, Beadle failed to catch an inswinging free-kick allowing Lewis Travis to blaze over. Ben Brereton Diaz then had a tame effort on target and the same followed for Szmodics.

Blues finally had a shot on 65 minutes, Jonathan Panzo shooting wayward with no conviction from distance. Within a minute, Szmodics had almost made it two with a sharp effort on the turn and Joe Ward followed suit with an effort just the wrong side of the near post.

Davies’ changes had helped give Blues a foothold in proceedings but nothing sustained or penetrative. Meanwhile Bobby Clark came closest of anybody with a low drive from the edge well handled by Beadle.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Klarer Robinson Panzo (Kyogo 84); Laird (Doyle 58) Iwata Paik Osman (Vicente 58); Gray Ducksch (Solis 58) Stansfield (Priske 71). Unused: Allsop; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Roberts.

Derby: Zetterstrom; Ward Sanderson Clarke Murkin; Clark (Ozoh 84) Travis; Brereton Szmodics (Fraulo 84) Brewster (Banel 65); Agyemang (Morris 84). Unused: Thompson; Canoville Gordon Forsyth Allen.

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Tactics

Blues lined up 5-4-1 here against Derby’s 4-2-3-1.

Derby were useful in possession and knew how to pull Blues around with little riposte.

The centre-backs would regularly be joined by one of the full-backs or Lewis Travis in the back three and depending on who dropped in depended on what other movements would be made. If Travis dropped in, the full-backs would step on and both wingers would step inside with Szmodics dropping in. If the full-back dropped in, the winger on that side would hold width and open space for a more direct pass with this happening a lot for Agyemang up against Klarer down their left.

When in possession in the final third, it was all about creating overloads and looking to find the other side. This meant a lot of forward runs into the area from the likes of Travis and Clark in order to pull one of the Blues midfielders back and open up space for a delivery to the far post where they would have as many numbers as us. This is how the goal came about, Agyemang winning the first ball, Derby keeping it down the left and delivering to a 2v2 situation at the back post where Brewster scored.

Blues failed to respond accordingly. It felt like we were being pulled around on strings and often found ourselves defending as a back six rather than in standard positions.

A lot of our issues stemmed from the first actions. Ducksch wasn’t sharp enough to lead a press and it also meant that Stansfield, Gray and Paik or Iwata, whichever was expected to step on and create a 5-1-3-1 shape as is common with this structure, weren’t able to regularly respond. We failed to switch onto the Derby rotations and be aggressive enough to push people on, leaving us sitting further and further back hoping to cut off space and creating more opportunity to Derby to dominate territory. Jack Robinson won’t have expected to head so many clearances away playing for Birmingham City.

As a result, there was always space on the edge of the area for Derby to play and it’s why we saw a number of efforts from inside right positions, with Derby showing composure having pulled Blues across. Not to mention the various crosses to the back post.

Blues in possession failed to offer close to anything and it was difficult to understand what the plan was. For the first 20 minutes, it was clearance central with everything hoisted up in the air or attempted in behind for the Blues front three, all three wide apart from each other and isolated. I haven’t double checked, but I’m informed by a pal that Iwata and Paik had 7 touches across the first 20 minutes of the game, a summary of how little we tried to get on the ball and play.

I gather the aim was to get hold of the ball and look for the early move wide to the other flank, where one winger could join his wing-back and create an overload in transition, but we were so useless in possession that that opportunity almost never arrived.

Davies switched up for the second half and moved to a 4-2-3-1, our normal shape. This saw Panzo move to LB, Osman to LW, Ducksch into the ‘10’ and Stansfield leading the line.

A triple sub was made just before the hour and it saw more change. Iwata moved from CM to RB. Solis and Doyle were dropped into CM with Paik more advanced. Vicente came on as the RW with Gray shifting to LW.

Blues did generally improve as far as control was concerned, Paik and the midfield two getting on the ball and helping us retain it a little better, but it was also tame, the build up okay but the penetration missing. The ball was often funnelled wide and Blues lacked the movement or combinations to exploit.

Blues made a further change late on with Kyogo replacing Panzo. This saw Blues move to a 3-3-4 with Iwata now at RCB, Paik firmly part of the midfield and Kyogo joining Priske up top.

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The end

Birmingham City have put in plenty of laboured displays this season. This was our poorest display of the season and it’s not even close.

Even on our worst days, you had a sense that we knew the patterns and what we were trying to do. Perhaps a daft red or some stupid decisions would make the optics worse. But we would spread play across the back, look to play into midfield, look to find the wingers into feet. There were days where none of it worked, but you could at least understand the structure and the intent and just find yourself frustrated by the inability to carry it out in a way that made us threatening or hard to beat.

None of that was evident here. This season has been something of a slow death but if we have resembled a poisoned patient gradually growing weaker as the weeks go by, this defeat was the killer blow, the day the mobster walked in and smothered us with a pillow to put us out of our misery.

We changed shape. It felt like we changed principle and structure too. We tried to fight Derby and earn the right to play but typically lost far too many battles and even when we did win one, we showed nothing to make it count.

From Ducksch standing with his back to play up top losing every duel and failing to offer anything out of possession to Stansfield and Gray regularly receiving the ball against two with no support. Iwata in midfield refusing to try and get the ball under control and trying to throw it away like a hot potato. Osman at wing-back having no idea how to defend 1v1 or space. Our midfield two trying to cover ground across the pitch and lacking support, also ensuring they couldn’t get up the pitch quickly. Nobody getting forward and breaking lines to even try and hurt the opposition.

As if to sum up the state of things, there was a moment in the second half where Paik dropped from his attacking midfield position into the left-central midfield slot he’s most familiar with because Robinson was looking for an option. Under no pressure he received the ball, looked forward and found his left-back and left-winger standing and waiting on the touchline with nobody showing to feet. Meanwhile Doyle was marked so the only option was to go backwards. He did, and received it straight back. Doyle was now available, so he played it and received it back. Space opened, tempo increasing and now both Gray and Panzo were making runs in behind so the forward pass was made. Gray received, turned to look for an option and nobody was there. Who had to step into the wide open space behind the Derby midfield? Paik, who had not only had to play the ball but then had to sprint for 60 yards to provide the only option because nobody else made the third man run.

Being kind, this was an ill-thought idea that played out in the worst possible fashion. At worst, it was cowardly.

I’ve spoken recently about the confusion of this season and the words spoken. Davies is speaking like a guy who no longer has control over his destiny. He has spoken about being competitive, how survival is a good aim, looking back on Blues’ past without the context of the situation we now find ourselves in. And then we have our manager saying that we need to have a go and attack these final games but then moving to what became a 5-4-1 shape for the first half.

I’ve defended us a lot this season, and I’ve done so because for the most part, I could see what he was trying to achieve. Given we’ve had managers such as Aitor Karanka, Steve Cotterill and Wayne Rooney previously, that is a positive. You can see the idea and what we are trying to achieve and it hasn’t come off in the way we hoped. I can deal with that.

I can’t deal with what we’ve witnessed on Saturday. That was the team selection of a manager desperate to find an answer or looking to prove a point. It was a team performance that offered no positives whatsoever. It was an afternoon that felt like the end. An indefensible display.

If and when the decision is made – and I’m confident if it doesn’t come during the international break, it will come by the end of the season – I’ll have something written. I feel sad about it still, but it’s getting harder and harder to remain positive. I think we've just witnessed the end.

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Opposition

Derby were excellent here. They played against really poor opposition but never let up and managed the game really well.

They dominated all over the pitch. The two centre-backs had one of the easiest games they’ll have all season and won everything. I really like the left-back, Murkin. Aggressive. The midfield are busy. And in Patrick Agyemang, they have a player that will either drag them to the top flight or earn them a pretty penny.

I’ll always have time for John Eustace and he’s got Derby right where he would expect at the start of his tenure. The challenge now is building on it and playing with more dominance with the ball as much as physically.

Next up: Blackburn Rovers (h)

The big question as I write at the moment is whether Chris Davies will be in charge for it. A game we absolutely should be winning, or at least dominating. But whether that happens is the question.

I really don’t know how to look towards this one at the moment. I can’t think of a starting XI I’d want to see play.

At least I haven’t got to think about us for two weeks now. Up the Blues eh!

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Femi Seriki was sent off for the visitors and the punishment was doubled when Marvin Ducksch gave Blues the lead from the resulting free-kick. James Beadle then saved a Sydie Peck penalty but could do little to deny Patrick Bamford equalising. Blues huffed and puffed in the second half but to little avail.

Davies chose to keep an unchanged XI after victory over Queens Park Rangers but there were returns for Tommy Doyle and August Priske on the bench, Aurelien Guernier and Kyogo Furuhashi making way.

The early goings were even but Blues came mightily close on two occasions to taking the lead. First, Tomoki Iwata’s pass was dummied by Ducksch for Ibrahim Osman, who stepped inside only to see his shot deflect against the post. Play continued and Ducksch received on the left-hand side of the box, producing a gorgeous curling effort that dipped against the crossbar.

Ducksch had a tame effort after good work from Ethan Laird and Osman just before the first controversial moment of the game. Patrick Roberts received on the half turn and played Osman in only for Femi Seriki to slide in and stop the winger reaching the ball. Despite the covering Tyler Bindon and Osman not being in control of the ball, the referee deemed it a goalscoring opportunity and sent Seriki off.

Ducksch set the ball down 25 yards or so from goal and calmly side-footed the ball towards the far side, catching Adam Davies off guard and putting Blues into a deserved lead.

The next controversial moment came almost from kick-off. Goalkeeper Davies cleared forward and the ball was flicked on to Beadle, who picked it up and as Jack Robinson came towards him, he put the ball down. Robinson took a couple of touches, placed the ball in the six-yard box, put his hand on the ball to signal a restart and played to Beadle. The problem was that the ball had not gone out of play – the ball was live and Robinson had just handled inside the area. Fortunately, Beadle was able to parry away Peck’s penalty before Christoph Klarer cleared the rebound.

Though Jay Stansfield stabbed a Laird cutback over, it was ten-man Blades that had the next big opportunity as Japhet Tanganga nodded down a free-kick for Bamford, who was denied by a top save from Beadle low down. Davies had to be alert at the other end to deny Ducksch after good work from Patrick Roberts.

And then out of nothing, an equaliser. One ball was popped over the top of the Blues defence and Bamford ran clear, taking a good touch before rounding Beadle to finish. Easy as you like.

The onus was on Blues to dominate the second half and in terms of possession and territory, they did. However, quality decision making and technique was too often lacking.

Roberts drove inside and shot on target. Paik whipped a low free-kick towards goal that Ducksch flicked on, the ball bouncing off the woodwork and clear. Paik then found the run of Stansfield but his touch let him down.

It was frustrating and that feeling never stopped. Gray had a tame effort towards goal before Ducksch so nearly replicated his first-half effort, whipping a free-kick towards his left only to see it bounce against the top of the bar.

Gray had another shot having burst inside, Davies needing to two attempts to keep hold. Ducksch had another free-kick, this time a tame effort that was easily saved. And our attempts were summed up by Gray stepping infield and blazing a shot closer to the corner flag than the goal.

A 1-1 draw.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Klarer Robinson (Panzo 46) Laird (Gray 68); Solis (Doyle 82) Paik; Roberts Ducksch Osman (Vicente 68); Stansfield (Priske 77). Unused: Allsop; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Fujimoto.

Sheffield United: Davies; Seriki Tanganga Bindon Burrows; Brooks (Davies 71) Peck Riedewald (Soumare 71) O’Hare (Hjelde 59); Bamford (Cannon 71) Ings (Hoever 25). Unused: Faxon; Arblaster Chong Campbell.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 shapes, but with each system containing more of a second striker that regularly joined the striker rather than operating as a classic ‘10’.

Both sides had similar ideas in and out of possession too. Both full-backs would generally provide width with the wingers stepping infield more often than not. One central midfielder – often Paik and Riedewald – would join the centre-backs to create a three defensively with the other – often Peck and Solis – sitting just in front and occupying the strikers. Both sides wanted to funnel the opposition out wide to the full-back with the full-backs usually sat inside following the wingers into wide-central pockets.

After the red card, Sheffield United dropped into a 4-4-1 shape. They started playing a more direct game, looking to draw Blues on one side and hoping to find either Bamford or a blind run from the winger on the other side.

For Blues, it was about ensuring we had width on either side as we looked to draw Blades over and either find a crossing opportunity or a clever pass into a pocket. We did not manage this anywhere near enough.

Early in the second half, Blades changed from 4-4-1 to 5-3-1, looking to ensure they could get players out to our wide men and leaving Bamford alone up top. This did work, Blues having less opportunity with the switch and meaning that when Blues did work the ball wide, they had bodies able to get over quickly rather than being outnumbered.

Blues changed accordingly. Firstly, Iwata moved to the left-back with Vicente arriving at right-back. Roberts sat further infield.

When Priske arrived on the pitch, Blues rebalanced and went to more of a 3-2-4-1, Vicente and Gray now the wide men with Ducksch and Roberts behind Priske. Panzo moved to left-centre-back with Iwata on the right, both having license to make forward runs to open space for the wide men. Blues regularly made the right moves into the final third but were too slow on the uptake or simply lacked quality.

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Where is the belief?

Blues 1-2 Sheffield Wednesday. Blues 0-0 Swansea City. Blackburn 1-0 Blues. Stevenage 0-0 Blues. Northampton 1-1 Blues. Blues 1-1 Bradford. Blues 1-1 Wigan.

We’re level or behind. We have an advantage, be it talent or numbers. You knew what was following. Get hold of it, play, deliver, recycle, play, set-piece, recycle, play, shoot, win it back, recycle, play. Bodies in the box. Players ready for the loose ball. Just keep moving the ball, keep moving it quickly, pound the rock and usually it will come. So many late winners or equalisers. We just got stronger and stronger.

You’re not always going to produce in such scenarios but you walk away having given everything you’ve got. The longer this season goes on, the less we maximise these scenarios.

Forget the away games. In the last couple of months we have drawn at home against Charlton Athletic, ten-man Derby County, a depleted Stoke City and now a ten-man Sheffield United.

We aren’t pounding the rock. We’re making poor decisions, failing to deliver the ball, not committing bodies into the box, operating too slowly to create overloads, giving the opposition ample opportunity to reorganise. It’s slow, it’s soft, it’s too easy. And the goals we’ve conceded in those games haven’t been much better, costing us.

The one thing you could almost guarantee with Davies was that as games wore on, we would grow stronger and commit. Especially at home. He would make bold changes, such as swapping a centre-back for a winger or striker. He is still making those changes but the effects are much more minimal. That aura, that control, that feeling of the Tilton sucking the ball into the net has gone. At no point today did I trust that we would find that clutch moment, even if Marvin Ducksch did his best with some outstanding efforts.

It feels increasingly like all parties have been beaten up by this Championship campaign. That belief that we will come through on the right side of a game in which we face real pressure or respond to setbacks has slowly dissipated and the unbeaten run from January to March feels long departed now as the games have gotten tougher.

I confess that I’m worn down by the way we have performed as the season has gone on. The structure and shape and principles all remain but it’s hard watching us commit the same sins – and even some new ones – on a regular basis. It’s not that I expect us to win or even perform well in every game, just commit to it. Believe in in yourselves. Instead, we go through the motions, fail to deliver and grab the game by the scruff of the neck as the minutes tick down.

For all my frustrations, I’m still on the side of wanting Davies to remain. There’s a version of this where we come away from the pressures of chasing, come back in the summer reinvigorated having learned plenty and tweaking both personnel and shape to find a number of answers to our issues. But calmer heads are going to have to prevail both on and off the pitch if we are going to meet the demands of this division and step forward.

The penalty

I can’t not mention it.

What the actual f*ck was that?

Here is me championing the return or additions of experienced individuals and here we have our experienced centre-half strolling with the ball in live play, popping it on the six-yard line and placing his hand on the ball to signal a restart. The ball hasn’t gone out of play. Absolutely mind-blowing.

Watching the replay, Robinson is watching the entire time. Robinson puts his hand on the ball and you see Beadle move his body as if to question what Robinson is doing, look at the referee then look back at his team-mate. As soon as the referee blows his whistle, Klarer puts his hand on his head. It’s one of the most mental things I’ve seen.

Thankfully Beadle was on the mark to make the save.

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Opposition

Not easy to make a judgement on Sheffield United based on this given they had 10 men for so long.

I thought we dealt with their threat pretty well early doors, ensuring we got two bodies around Patrick Bamford while Iwata and Laird were on their game against Brooks and O’Hare in the pockets.

The longer the game went on with ten, the more their centre-backs stood out with Tyler Bindon and Japhet Tanganga winning everything that came into their box. And of course, Patrick Bamford scored against us again because he always does. A good side that knows what they are about and stood up to be counted against a weak Blues attack as they game wore on.

Next up: Derby County (a)

It’s difficult to get up for it, isn’t it? The season feels done after that.

And yet, we started well on Saturday. Jack Robinson was only withdrawn due to being on a yellow card according to Chris Davies post-match. Ethan Laird has come through another hour. It’s only out wide where I would anticipate change, purely given the options we have available, not that they did themselves justice here.

Here’s hoping for a proper response.

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Patrick Roberts scored the only goal on his return to the XI. Blues had a number of opportunities to kill the game off but were troubled at the other end to pick up a much-needed win a clean sheet.

Chris Davies made six changes from the side that lost at Charlton Athletic at the weekend. Ethan Laird made his first start since September while James Beadle, Jack Robinson, Patrick Roberts, Ibrahim Osman and Jay Stansfield also returned. Kai Wagner and August Priske were not fit to be involved with Ryan Allsop, Jonathan Panzo, Carlos Vicente and Demarai Gray dropping to the bench. Kyogo Furuhashi and Aurelien Guernier were called in as part of the 20.

Blues started bright and opened the scoring within six minutes. Richard Kone gave possession away from a throw with Marvin Ducksch and Paik Seung-Ho quick to link and set Osman away. He skipped past the powerful Amadou Mbengue before cutting back for Roberts to finish first time.

It was a strong first half from the hosts, who didn’t concede a single shot on their goal. A free-kick found Christoph Klarer with Mbengue almost volleying the knockdown past his own goalkeeper. Two more set-pieces in quick succession caused problems too, Osman forcing a stop from Joe Walsh and the next seeing Ducksch denied on the line before Patrick Roberts forced a smart stop at the near post.

Tomoki Iwata was typically adventurous and volleyed over. Stansfield cutback for Ducksch, who couldn’t quite set himself to find the target first time. Iwata and Ducksch then linked up with the former shooting at Walsh. A swift move followed ending with Stansfield’s shot being deflected over, the resulting corner being headed against the post by the high-rising Laird.

Roberts aimed for the far top corner with a FK but was unsuccessful. A cute bit of play saw Laird have a decent effort blocked and a moment later, Stansfield forced a fine stop low down with Osman denied on the rebound.

The second half started like the first. Mbengue decided to let a loose ball bounce allowing Osman in behind to curl just wide. Another fine move ended with Stansfield cutting back for Ducksch to shank wide.

After a couple of potshots from distance, Rayan Kolli had the first effort from inside the Blues area for QPR flicking a free-kick high and wide of the target and Blues’ inability to take their chances meant this became a little end-to-end for the remaining minutes.

Gray couldn’t find the target from the edge of the box. Harvey Vale shot wide from 20 yards while Kwame Poku managed to test Beadle from a similar distance. Kolli flicked on a cross just wide. But Blues weren’t done with a sharp break from Gray ending with Vicente’s shot being deflected over, Robinson unable to beat Walsh on the turn from the resulting corner.

Poku had another effort, this time from a more central position but he was wide of the target. And Blues ought to have wrapped things up in injury time when Kanya Fujimoto sent Gray in behind, the winger going alone and being denied by a last ditch block.

Blues return to winning ways and move to within five points of Wrexham.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Klarer Robinson Laird (Panzo 64); Solis Paik; Roberts (Vicente 76) Ducksch (Fujimoto 76) Osman (Gray 64); Stansfield (Kyogo 92). Unused: Allsop; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Guernier.

QPR: Walsh; Mbengue Dunne Cook (Norrington-Davies 58) Clarke-Salter (Hayden 79); Edwards Varane (Morgan 46); Vale Saito (Kolli 46) Smyth (Poku 70); Kone. Unused: Hamer; Adamson Smith Bennie.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 shapes, very much having a second striker rather than more of a natural 10.

Blues moved towards more of a 3-1 build from the back, something we tend to do against opposition that sit off. This meant one of Paik or Solis joining the back three with the other sitting just in front. In the image below, you can see Paik in the LCB position while Solis shuffles between the two central midfielders.

In this particular moment, it’s both of the full-backs holding width with the wingers sat just inside. However, this wasn’t consistent with full-backs and wide players having license to dovetail depending on where the space was available.

The space was always available out wide. QPR generally defended in a narrow 4-4-2 shape and wanted to block the two central midfielders getting on the ball. However, they did a poor job at forcing the scenarios they wanted and instead allowed Blues to regularly get Paik involved while both Robinson and Klarer tended to have a straight pass to the full-backs, who were able to step higher up the pitch to receive. Everything after that point was quite reactionary from QPR as Blues moved to create space and slip in behind a defence lacking support.

What wound up happening on numerous occasions was that they woudl find themselves dropping into a back five shape with the winger on either side tracking Blues’ full-back while everybody got pulled around or backwards, allowing Blues to step on and dominate the ball with gaps available.

As the game continued, more space became available with Stansfield and Osman now able to make more forward runs in behind the full-back, which began pulling the centre-backs out of position. Both were excellent at getting themselves into the box when the other made the run, which opened space for the cutbacks to Ducksch too.

QPR didn’t offer a huge amount in possession. Their general aim was to try and find the option out wide or look for the forward pass to Kone, hoping to draw the press and go longer. However, Blues were stronger in the key duels and meant this never caused many issues.

Blues bounced between 4-1-4-1 and 4-1-3-2, depending on how quickly Ducksch needed to get involved to support Stansfield. Solis was the player that usually stepped on with Paik being the sitter in front of the back four. The approach ensured that the player going up against Kone had sufficient support rather than being isolated, and Blues were very quick to break with Roberts and Ducksch often well positioned to receive in the pockets.

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Much-needed experience

I’m weary of going big on this victory. Our opposition couldn’t have looked less interested if they tried.

Still, we managed the game well. The play was crisp, players made good decisions and duels were won. And it was notable to me that this kind of competent display came with the return of various figures that understand either Blues or the Championship or both.

This was an XI that contained Davies’ core four: Tomoki Iwata, Paik Seung-Ho, Christoph Klarer and Jay Stansfield. It also included Jack Robinson, Ethan Laird and Patrick Roberts. Marvin Ducksch is growing into something of a leader – even if he remains overtly flaky and needs looking after from a physical point of view – so it was only Jhon Solis, who was allowed to step off his leash ahead of a defensive unit that could stand on their own two feet and look after the ball, and Ibrahim Osman, who had a bit of free reign on the left, that needed a bit of looking after and we were able to manage it.

As the game drew on, we allowed QPR back in a little bit. It’s only normal for a group still lacking real confidence and assurance in their ability as a group to defy pressure but we kept play in front of us, defended our box when we needed to and freshening up the wide areas gave us a threat going the other way.

It’s not to say we have found the answers to all of our problems. Again, our opposition were weak and we will face tougher tests, starting at the weekend. But we had two centre-backs that were able to stand up for themselves, full-backs that were committed to task and because all four knew their games, it helped those ahead of them. Beadle was put under less pressure and we were able to find Paik, Ducksch and Roberts to get more involved higher up.

We’ll see how it goes at the weekend. We will certainly have to do more defending and the outs aren’t going to be quite as obvious. But this was a good start after a difficult few games.

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Opposition

I was warned by a couple of QPR fans that this would be an easy win. They could scarcely be more down on their team right now. They were right.

We’ve picked up bigger victories but this was the worst opposition performance at St.Andrews this season. A team bereft of intent, unwilling to be brave in or out of possession and an attacking midfield trio that may as well not have existed as Richard Kone battled bravely alone. Jake Clarke-Salter at left-back went as well as any Blues fan could have predicted.

I can’t provide any sort of compliment, beyond acknowledgement that Kwame Poku was fairly lively when he arrived on the pitch.

Next up: Sheffield United (h)

We both played Wednesday night. This will be our second home game in three days while it will be their second away day in the same time frame. There aren’t many reasons as to why we shouldn’t be able to turn up for this one and pick up back-to-back victories for the third time this season.

However, Blades have been a borderline top-six outfit since Chris Wilder returned to the dugout and they battered us in mid-December after an early Tommy Doyle red card. Factor in Callum O’Hare being prime for his usual goal at St.Andrews and it’s fair to say this is going to be tougher than our last outing.

I see no real reason to change the starting XI. I think Demarai Gray will get the nod over Ibrahim Osman having been rested in midweek. I think we’ll push Ethan Laird to do another hour at left-back with Kai Wagner out “for a few weeks”. There’s always the possibility that Carlos Vicente replaces Patrick Roberts, but I’d be reticent to do it after the positive display in midweek.

Here’s hoping for another three points and giving us reason to believe in the improbable once more.

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Charlie Kelman scored the only goal of the game in the second half and the result means that Blues have lost three consecutive league matches for the first time this season.

Davies made five changes for this one. Ryan Allsop, Jhon Solis, Paik Seung-Ho, Carlos Vicente and Marvin Ducksch all returned to the starting XI with James Beadle and Tommy Doyle absent from the squad while Bright Osayi-Samuel, Patrick Roberts and Jay Stansfield dropped to the bench. Brad Mayo and Jack Robinson returned with Kyogo Furuhashi dropping out.

The game as a whole was a nothing affair with both sides managing a combined 1.1xG total.

The first half efforts all came around the middle of the half, Lyndon Dykes getting the game moving with an awful attempt to lob Allsop. Harry Clarke had a shot deflected wide with the resulting corner volleyed wide. Clarke had another effort, his shot saved this time, before Demarai Gray escaped in behind only for his shot to be deflected wide. Greg Docherty had a header saved and that was that.

The second half wasn’t much better. Tyreece Campbell escaped in behind but Christoph Klarer did excellently to block on the cover. Blues then got on the front foot but couldn’t take their moments, Tomoki Iwata having our best chance dragging one wide from distance.

The goal came on 75 and like last season, it was a long throw that we failed to deal with. Blues had three attempts to get proper contact on the ball and failed to do so, allowing Kelman to fire in first time from the penalty spot.

Ibrahim Osman curled over from the edge of the box but that was as good as it got for Blues. Fortunately, neither Kelman nor Miles Leaburn could find the target at the other end.

A drab game and another defeat on the road.

Lineups

Charlton: Mannion; Ramsay Jones Bell; Clarke Carey Coventry (Coady 90) Docherty (Rankin-Costello 71) Chambers (Kelman 71); Dykes (Leaburn 81) Campbell (Gillesphey 90). Unused: Brooks; Gough Fullah Fevrier.

Blues: Allsop; Iwata (Laird 81) Klarer Panzo (Fujimoto 86) Wagner; Solis (Laird 81) Paik; Vicente Ducksch Gray (Osman 57); Priske (Stansfield 57). Unused: Mayo; Osayi-Samuel Neumann Robinson.

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Tactics

Blues lined up 4-2-3-1 with Charlton in a 5-3-2 shape.

It was largely man-for-man across the pitch. Lloyd Jones (CCB) was up against August Priske with Conor Coventry (DM) vs Marvin Ducksch. It was then Sonny Carey and Greg Docherty (both CM) vs Paik Seung-Ho and Jhon Solis with Jonathan Panzo and Christoph Klarer up against Lyndon Dykes and Tyreece Campbell (both ST).

The main change for both sides was out wide. Both sides would shift across for the press. For Blues, it was the WG closing the wide CB then the FB getting out to the Charlton WB (so Gray closing Kayne Ramsay (RCB) then Wagner closing Harry Clarke (RWB)). For Charlton, they would push the WB on to close our FB then trust the wide CB to deal with the WG.

Charlton had a very simple game plan, one that was designed to be direct and look to get behind us at every opportunity. The out balls were Campbell in the left-hand channel where Klarer would be pulled out or into Dykes, who generally had the beating of Panzo. From there, it was about getting bodies into the box for crosses or winning set-pieces.

For Blues, the space was out wide with the full-backs tending to have plenty of ball. What they wanted was to step inside and have a winger on the outside and a forward in the gap inside. However, Blues rarely did the latter and struggled to make things happen, often having to go backwards with minimal options in front of them.

Otherwise, Blues were happy to utilise Allsop’s long passing, looking to create 3v3 scenarios so the ball could be pinged centrally away from Lloyd Jones in order for Vicente and Gray to break in behind. The plan never really worked.

The early second half changes helped. Stansfield and Osman immediately put more pressure on the ball which forced Charlton to clear in a more hurried fashion. That then dragged Charlton bodies further back which allowed Klarer and Panzo to deal with Dykes 2v1, giving Blues more opportunity to step on. Iwata was able to step up higher which pulled Campbell back while Paik was now able to step into pockets between the lines and Blues played higher.

However, Blues couldn’t sustain it. Two Charlton changes helped, giving them more energy down the left, not to mention putting an extra body on in attack to turn us the other way and make it a 2v2 battle. And Panzo does not enjoy the physical game, meaning he was pinned by Dykes too often leading to either free-kicks or Charlton getting a foothold of possession.

Blues never really recovered from that point.

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The game may be up

My position on Chris Davies has been pretty clear. Saturday was the first time I felt like the job has gotten away from him.

It’s been a tough season to judge. Early doors it was all about the fighting spirit and our ability to score or produce late on. In November we scored four goals in three consecutive home games. We had the unbeaten run through January and February. But between those moments, we’ve had real insipid displays while our inability to do the basics on the road has consistently halted progress. We’re fine when the going is good but the moment we come under pressure, we fold.

The defeats against Millwall and Middlesbrough were one thing. We were beaten and bullied by the better football team. At Charlton, aside from a 15-minute spell in the second half, we just never got going. Typical of our season, we were carrying too many players and therefore unable to find any rhythm in the game. Players not showing. Players not up for the battle. Players not doing the basics out of possession. What made it worse was that we were supposed to get the response here after those two defeats and it just never came.

If the season wasn’t already done before Saturday, it well and truly is now. We need to pick up a minimum of 21 points from our final 10 league matches and there’s a softness about this group that guarantees that isn’t going to happen. I think even if you pop somebody new in the dugout and change the system from Wednesday, it isn’t happening.

Do I think it’s all Davies’ fault? No. I stand by what I spoke about in my piece the other day. Our recruitment has been messy, the squad – and particularly the spine – lacks knowhow and it’s so easy for games to get away from us. Where we had vast experience of League One football or better in our squad last season, we’ve lacked it this year and I do feel like Davies’ trust in his squad has dwindled as the season has continued with so many inconsistent performers.

But I’m not sure how it improves from this point now. For all the revenue, we’ve already spent a fair amount of next season’s budget (hence why we did so much in January while we had the opportunity to because the women’s team loophole is being closed). Questions are going to remain over recruitment (I’ll touch on that in the next section). Are we going to be able to address the things that need addressing for Davies’ style to work next season and mount a challenge? Probably not. And even if do attempt it, do I back the people in charge of the recruitment to do it? Probably not. The away end at The Valley was moody. Expectations were high and we’ve fallen short.

My overriding feeling writing this is one of sadness. Davies was appointed after relegation from the Championship and put proper standards in place, which led to us breaking numerous records on route to promotion. We knew what we were, how we were doing it and were relentless in that pursuit of immortality. Those things were evident at points this season, but never consistently and it makes me sad that Davies is probably going to depart between now and the summer remembered mostly for those soft away displays and inability to defend set-pieces than enormous good that has come from his tenure.

I don’t have a particularly good steer on where we would go next. Given what I’ll touch on next, probably somebody that has better experience of managing upwards.

Who is in charge?

I have enormous respect for Dan Ivery so when he speaks, I listen.

Yesterday, in what has become a much rarer Twitter post, he said this:

The insinuation, if I’m reading it correctly, is that Tom Wagner / Knighthead pushed to make the Vicente signing happen. An opportunity to throw our dick on the table and make a splash.

In League One, our recruitment felt co-ordinated. We had a plan and a design of what we wanted to do, what we wanted the side to look like and built it. It hasn’t felt like that this season. It just hasn’t felt like that this year, and we’ve neglected so many of the more important areas of the team. And then you see something like the above. Is it any wonder it feels like the job has gotten away from Davies a little bit?

So who is control? Who is the figurehead making sure we make more good decisions than we do bad ones? Are the people employed capable of managing upwards and saying “no” when “no” needs to be said? Are people saying “no” and just being ignored by the person above? Is everybody just playing happy and agreeing with those above?

The money we have at our disposal means that sooner rather than later, we will probably win promotion. We’ll roll the dice and land on a six – Tom Wagner was right when he said you’d have to be stupid to have our money and not win promotion. But to win promotion and stick around in the top-flight, you have to act smarter than other clubs. I’m not convinced we have got that memo yet.

The club have done remarkable things all around the club, but the football department still feels a little short of “World Class”.

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Opposition

Charlton are what they are. Big, strong, physical, quick, uncompromising. Happy to defend their box and play for the channels. It’s effective, especially against a soft side like us.

The back three were excellent, albeit under very little pressure. I’ve long been a fan of Kayne Ramsay, who was excellent, while Lloyd Jones is a proper centre-half – I reckon he and Klarer would make a fantastic pairing. Ultimately, I see Charlton as an outfit that hard-nosed, well balanced and just everything we aren’t right now.

Next up: Queens Park Rangers (h)

Is it even worth looking at the next game at this point?

I guess the one bonus here is that QPR have had a day’s less preparation. I think the onus will be on Davies to take every game seriously and pick his best XI. What that XI is is anybody’s guess.

Personally, I’d be throwing Neumann back in and moving Klarer to LCB, where I think he has been more comfortable defensively, often sitting more central. Stansfield returns for Priske; I think Ducksch starts because QPR are less likely to push their CB’s out of their defensive line. I’d be tempted to give Laird a start. Possibly Roberts too.

Here’s hoping we put in a performance.

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I said during our unbeaten run that post-Leeds United, we would understand what this group are about. It turns out that while we have more strings to our bow than before January the same issues remain.

Away at Norwich City, we showcased both the good and the bad, starting bright and taking our opportunities but finding ourselves somewhat fortunate to hold on for the points. But that was okay. We have been poor on the road all season and being able to ride our luck a little and see one or two players step up felt important.

Next up, Millwall. We held our own a little against the ropes for 25 minutes but as soon as they scored, we went to pot. Three goals conceded, a red card, a key injury. It got worse when we hosted Middlesbrough on Monday, starting bright before conceding a terrible goal and just never responding.

In some ways, this was nothing new. It has defined our season. Occasionally sparkling, occasionally insipid, too often not strong enough. And it’s why after 35 league matches, we sit smack bang in the middle of the table four points ahead of 17^th, four points behind 7^th but 8, 11, 13 and 14 points behind the sides in 6^th to 3^rd.

It’s been a very confusing season and while I normally reserve this stuff for the international break, now feels as good of a time as any just to let my thoughts go.

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You may recall that last season, Birmingham City finished up as League One champions having accrued a League One, EFL and world record 111 points.

A lot of that was put down the money spent and sure, we spent a lot of money. It definitely helped. However, as with any club spending money – and don’t we know this after 2017-18 – it’s not about the money spent but how you spend it.

We had a new manager. We were in a new league. We had overseen an enormous squad overhaul.

Ryan Allsop, Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Alfie May were our first three signings. Allsop had played over 300 senior matches at L1 level or above, winning promotion out of the division with Wycombe Wanderers. Alfie May had played 200 games at the level and been a regular starter in League One for three seasons on the bounce. Combine them with Krystian Bielik, a L1 promotion winner and somebody that had played 70+ games for us in the Championship over the previous two seasons, and Lukas Jutkiewicz, who had been around forever, and the tone was set.

We didn’t stop there. Marc Leonard had just started every League One match for Northampton Town and was on the up at 23. Lyndon Dykes had 100+ Championship starts to his name. Ben Davies had 150 L1, Champ and SPL appearances to his name. Jay Stansfield had been a regular contributor for Exeter City in League One then us in the Championship. Lee Buchanan had played 100+ Championship matches. Ethan Laird 100+ L1 and Champ matches.

So when we did sign players from elsewhere that were seemingly of ability at or above the level such as Alex Cochrane, Willum Willumson, Christoph Klarer and Tomoki Iwata (and you can probably include Paik Seung-Ho in here given he had only been in the country for six months), they had plenty of experience and support to bounce off while they learned English football.

And when we needed a boost in January, we added Grant Hanley and Kieran Dowell, who had a combined 500+ Championship and Premier League appearances between them.

The change meant that while we were fine early doors, we still needed a bit of fine-tuning. When that arrived post-Shrewsbury Town, we went on to concede just 16 goals in 32 league matches while also making the EFL Trophy final. It wasn’t always pretty and the schedule meant we spent much of the season grinding out results but we were effective and able to hold our own, which enabled the extra quality we did have to make a big impact when needed.

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Why do I mention the above? Because experience and knowhow and identity is important to success.

Look at Leeds United last season. Daniel Farke, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon, Daniel James, Joe Rothwell, Patrick Bamford, Sam Byram, Karl Darlow. Or Burnley with Scott Parker, Joe Worrall, Josh Brownhill, Jaidon Anthony, Connor Roberts, Nathan Redmond, Zian Flemming, Josh Cullen, Josh Laurent, Ashley Barnes. Or Sunderland, who had a new manager but Anthony Patterson, Dan Neil, Daniel Ballard, Alan Browne, Patrick Roberts, Luke O’Nien, Chris Mepham, Trai Hume.

Other clubs took a more scenic route.

Ipswich Town are cited for their double promotion. Kieran McKenna was also new to the Championship. But they had a group that had been together for years, a group with thousands of League One matches between them, a squad full of players used to playing football matches while Christian Walton, Sam Morsy, Dominic Ball, Massimo Luongo and Conor Chaplin (who had all played at least a couple of full seasons of Championship football) were joined by Lewis Travis and Kieffer Moore in January.

The likes of Luton Town, Brentford and Norwich City took a couple or more seasons to make promotion, but by the time they made it, their players had amassed a fair amount of second tier appearances

Some of the names mentioned may not look like big, ugly, experienced names but they’ve played a lot of football in England over time with their clubs and it paid off brilliantly. They might have simpler roles than others, but they know how to take on those tasks and win more than they lose.

In the summer of 2025, we waved goodbye to Lukas Jutkiewicz, who retired. Grant Hanley departed at the end of his contract. Kieran Dowell and Ben Davies returned to Rangers. Krystian Bielik was moved on. Lee Buchanan was already done for the season. Dion Sanderson and Tyler Roberts were never sticking around.

Of the players left at the club, Ryan Allsop and Lyndon Dykes had been around for some time. We’ve touched on Buchanan being ruled out. Ethan Laird had made 70 or so appearances but not played a full season and would be ruled out for five months anyway. Keshi Anderson had less than 50 Championship starts to his name, plus ongoing injury concerns. Paik Seung-Ho managed 18 appearances in our relegation campaign. Christoph Klarer, Tomoki Iwata, Scott Wright, Marc Leonard, Alex Cochrane, Willum Willumson and Alfons Sampsted had never played Championship football before.

Demarai Gray arrived. Yes, he had spent a couple of years out in Saudi but before that, he had amassed over 250 Championship and Premier League appearances. Patrick Roberts moved over from Sunderland, where he had been a regular for three seasons. Another deadline day addition was Jack Robinson, who had played over 350 games for Premier League and Championship clubs.

As for the rest of the summer additions, James Beadle had done a season and a half at cash-strapped Sheffield Wednesday. Tommy Doyle has been around for a while but was about to turn 24 having made around 50 career starts and 3 the previous season at Wolves. Bright Osayi-Samuel managed 54 starts over a season and a half at Queens Park Rangers before five years in Turkey, where he changed position and only started more than 21 matches in a season once. Eiran Cashin played less than 40 Championship matches for Derby County over two spells. Lewis Koumas had his first ever first-team season with Stoke City the previous year, a mixed bag. Phil Neumann, Kyogo Furuhashi, Kanya Fujimoto and Marvin Ducksch had never played at the level.

Now, there have been concerns with our squad all season. The physical elements have been a big talking point and we have definitely been short on that front. But is it any wonder that we are so often unable to stand on our own two feet and navigate or control football matches when almost the entire squad are learning how to do this at the same time?

The only player on our books this season that was with us last season and has proper Championship experience is our second-choice goalkeeper. Of our defenders, only Jack Robinson, who arrived with his issues and has since gotten injured, has generally been available and has significant experience of this level. Of our midfielders, it’s Tommy Doyle, who is now 24 and has only just made his 70^th career league start that leads the way. As for the attack, it’s Stansfield, who had one season with us during our relegation campaign. At least the wingers know what they’re doing.

Now factor this against the two sides that have just bullied us and beaten us up.

Millwall have Anthony Patterson, Ryan Leonard, Jake Cooper and Billy Mitchell with over 100+ Championship starts to their name, while the other seven starters had all arrived in January 2025 or before, settling into life at Millwall and understand the demands and being able to grow at their pace. Off the bench, they added Dan McNamara, Alfie Doughty and Barry Bannan.

Middlesbrough. Callum Brittain, Dael Fry, Luke Ayling, Matt Targett, Hayden Hackney, Tommy Conway. All 100+ Championship starts to their name. Sol Brynn has stepped up after full campaigns at lower levels. Aidan Morris got a full season under his belt last season, able to learn the ropes from those with experience around him. Riley McGree has had injury troubles but has been around the level for a while. And again, Morgan Whittaker and Alan Browne are stepping off the bench to see things out.

Hull City are a bit chaotic but Regan Slater, John Egan, Lewie Coyle, Ryan Giles, Oli McBurnie, Matt Crooks, John Lundstram, Cody Drameh and Sami Ajayi have been around a while. They added Kasey Palmer, Paddy McNair and Kieran Dowell recently too.

And how about Wrexham, the club we wanted to be bigger and better than? Dominic Hyam. Kieffer Moore. Ben Sheaf. Lewis O’Brien. Callum Doyle. Ryan Longman. Josh Windass. Matty James. James McClean. Dan Scarr. Conor Coady. Zak Vyner. Jay Rodriguez. No wonder they’re coming on strong, building on the foundations already in place.

Experience and knowhow isn’t the only thing that wins you promotion. If it was, there wouldn’t be so many 30-somethings out of contract at the end of the season and we may as well have kept Grant Hanley and signed Craig Dawson to be our centre-halves in the summer. But experience and knowhow is crucial to managing football matches, staying in control, reading situations, leading dressing rooms, navigating difficult situations and those things help you win football matches just as much, if not more, than talent does. The type of intangible qualities that ensure that other talented footballers can walk into a place, learn quicker and match the levels needed to be a success.

I really like Klarer, Iwata, Paik and Stansfield and they probably are the four players we expected to step up and be leaders as we moved into the Championship. But between them, they have a season and a half worth of experience at this level, and that was during a relegation campaign. They’ve stepped up and been reliable as they can, but they’re in the process of finding their feet themselves while trying to help everybody else do the same. It’s been a struggle for the summer additions outside of Roberts and Gray.

In January, we went for the approach of adding much-needed physicality to the group and it was needed. It’s undeniable that Kai Wagner was a strong pick-up while Carlos Vicente, August Priske and Jhon Solis are having an impact, even if the latter pair are raw. It has helped fix some obvious issues from a tactical / physical point of view and while the technical has never been in doubt, we remain short from the mentality/endurance side of things and that was shown more than ever against Millwall when all six January additions started. Only Jonathan Panzo, who started 24 games for Coventry City, had experience of the level and that was followed up with 8, 15 and 13 starts abroad while a six-month spell with Cardiff City brought just four substitute appearances.

When you’re looking for reasons why others are in the top six and we are falling short, the above goes some way to explaining it. In terms of talent, I don’t believe there is much between us and those in the top six. But while they built their foundations from the bottom up, we went ahead and brought the furniture from old house, added a chandelier and candelabra but are sat wondering why we’re looking up at our neighbours while sinking into the soil beneath.

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We have been a confusing football club this year.

The noise from the club after promotion from League One was that we were aiming to go back-to-back. But as above, we never really attacked the transfer window in a way that screamed “promotion now”. But we never went with a model that benefits us longer-term either - only two of our 14 permanent signings were under the age of 25, and one of those was Taylor Gardner-Hickman, a loanee from last season whose signing was made permanent in July and was shipped out on loan for the season in August. Meanwhile, we have spent so much of our revenue on transfer fees and wages that our owners had to buy the women’s team from the club in order to make improvements in January having had to do things for cheaper at the end of the summer window.

The club’s public words were never aligned with the processes that followed.

A failure to meet aims usually comes with dissection of who is at fault.

It’s not the owners. Sure, they helped increase the demand and it has led to more frustration and entitlement from the fanbase, but they have put their money where their mouth and given us every opportunity to improve within the rules. Perhaps somebody underneath screwed up adding the numbers up, which is why there was a drastic change during the summer window. But ultimately, you have to look towards the football department.

The plan was to win promotion. Then it was to get into the play-offs. Knighthead aren’t ready to dick around and wait for success, they want to take it as soon as possible. But they aren’t football people and the trust has to go towards the football department to get the football side of the business right.

So who is responsible on the football side of things?

This is the statement sent out when the club announced Craig Gardner had been promoted from Technical Director to Director of Football: https://www.bcfc.com/pages/en/media-article/craig-gardner-appointed-birmingham-city-director-of-football

Meanwhile, Chris Davies’ appointment saw the following statement: https://www.bcfc.com/pages/en/media-article/chris-davies-named-blues-manager

Now, it’s important to note that things do change. Job roles tweak, ideas change, people gain new power in roles. What was said then may not necessarily be true now. But also, if that isn’t communicated by the club then fans every right to follow what we are told and take them at face value.

The statements appear to read that Gardner is responsible for the present and future of the football club when it comes to identity, recruitment and academy. Davies’ responsibility is to help create a squad to challenge but primarily to coach and improve footballers while instilling a winning mentality.

We don’t know exactly how the recruitment process works. We can all picture an idea of how it might work, but we don’t know. Is Davies being offered players with knowhow? Has he said yes and we’ve failed to get them over the line, so gone with somebody else? Did he get offered such players and say no? Did we follow too closely to a data-led recruitment process and fall short on some of the more intangible qualities that data is less likely to show? Is Davies getting as much say as we are led to believe? Is Davies having too much say?

Whatever the case, the recruitment, the identity of the football club and our ability to meet the owners’ lofty goals falls at the hands of Craig Gardner first and foremost. He is the man that should be setting the tone and direction for everything that goes on underneath, ensuring there are no excuses in order to meet our goals given the tools he has been given by the ownership.

I’m not here to say he is failing. Judging a Director of Football on a couple of windows is a big stretch unless things go horribly, horribly wrong. Last season in League One, we got it right. In the summer, we got it wrong. In January, we addressed a number of key issues but couldn’t fix everything. It’s now very likely that we fail to finish in the top six and it’s imperative that unlike this time last year, we are already in motion to fix the obvious issues that remain within our squad.

But I do have one big gripe.

When Craig Gardner took on the role as Technical Director, we were stuck with a number of big contracts for players of a certain age that weren’t of the quality to earn such wages and wages that we struggled to shift. He and the club had to work around those restrictions, navigating choppy waters in order to keep us afloat. You’d think people would have learned. Instead, we’ve heard about these increased revenues and spending power and somehow managed to leave ourselves on the cusp of PSR issues and finding loopholes in order to make changes. Meanwhile, we enter next season with a squad – as it stands and removing those currently out on loan – of 18 players in which only two will be under the age of 25 and five until the age of 27. I’m struggling to understand why we have been so careless on that front while also failing to address the key issues we knew about from the previous campaign.

That gripe will niggle at me, and I need to see proof that we have learned. January was an improvement in terms of the profiles added, to a point, but given we have committed to transfers worth around £20m - assuming Jhon Solis gets made permanent though there is no guarantee at present – and suggested wages for Priske and Vicente are, shall we say, very nice for a Championship footballer, you get the impression that we are going to look for ways to throw more money at this. If we are going to do that while also under new Championship financial rules, we have to do better when it comes to recruitment before we find ourselves stuck.

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So what now?

The ownership won’t have given up on a top six finish. The demand will remain that the management and players give everything they’ve got. And if it doesn’t happen this season, the aim will be promotion next season.

For Chris Davies and the squad, it’s a strange position to be in. The demand to perform and win football matches remains both from the top and also from Davies himself, but it is beginning to feel like we are chasing the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. It’s going to take an almighty run of results to sneak into 6^th – Wrexham are on course for 75 points and we can earn a maximum of 82.

The thing that fascinates me is while there is some internal pressure to perform, the external pressure is now largely gone. It’s another chance to reset and after a season in which we have failed to deliver on such high expectations, management and players should have the bit between their teeth to want to finish the season strongly and prove they want to be part of the journey next season.

If we play like we’re “on the beach”, I can’t see Davies being here next season. In fact, if the next four go badly, I wouldn’t be surprised if a change is made during the March international break. If we give this a good go and show some spirit in a challenge where the odds are firmly against us, it could be the spark to hit the ground running next year.

I’ve been steadfast in my belief that Davies isn’t the issue for us.

That’s not to say he has been perfect this season, and there has been an element of him, like the players, working things out as we go, which doesn’t fit the narrative of a club wanting promotion now. But I believe he sets the kind of standards our owners expect of our footballing department, is as ruthless as the owners would expect us to be and he has a clear way of working that has generally seen us be one of the better teams in the division in so many metrics. I’m also steadfast in my belief that he has done the right thing sticking to his guns as far as style is concerned. We’re in a far better position to build into next season – with or without Davies – as we are now than if we regressed and pandered to certain individuals to make life easier. That’s what got us relegated.

In terms of his performance this season, I think he has managed to find a number of short-term solutions and keep us competitive while sticking to the principles he and the club demand but lacked the tools to figure out the bigger problems, with the lack of reliability and knowhow forcing too much change. I bet you can name the four players to manage 75% of minutes this season.

I’ll probably hold off until the end of the season – or a big decision is made – to go into what happens in the future.

In the meantime, the games come thick and fast with us travelling to Charlton Athletic at the weekend before hosting Queens Park Rangers and Sheffield United. The challenge is clear: finish the season strongly.

For me, I think it’s time for certain “experiments” - for lack of a better word – to stop and for Davies to be true to himself, his ideas and pick the players he can rely upon to earn results. People take issue with “favourites” but after recent results and with pretty much everybody now fit and available, he has to pick a side that can be as stable as possible defensively and work forward.

Here’s how I see it playing out. Davies’ generals start: Iwata, Klarer, Paik and Stansfield. Gray can probably be added to that list. Wagner starts, obviously. Solis returns in midfield next to Paik, with Iwata moving to right-back. Who starts in goal or at CB? I’ll predict Beadle and Neumann but I wouldn’t be shocked if it is Allsop, Panzo or Robinson getting the nod. That leaves RW and attack and we will see rotation in forward areas generally. I think for Saturday, given we’re away from home against a side that will be aggressive, Vicente and Priske get the nod to give us legs in behind.

That everybody is fit and our best XI isn’t particularly clear speaks plenty to what needs improving in the summer. Those goalkeeper, right-back and centre-back positions are pivotal. Our promotion last season was built on those solid foundations and those foundations simply haven’t been there this season. Build from the base and allow the rest of the team to flourish.

We’ve 11 games left. What will be will be. We probably aren’t making the top six but I hope we do give it a good go and show a little bit of something with the pressure now off and our toughest fixtures, Ipswich aside, out of the way. I’ll be at Charlton Saturday to hopefully witness the beginning of that.

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A competitive opening quarter ended with Femi Azeez’s brilliant opener and Tristan Crama made it two moments later. Things got worse in the second half as Jake Cooper made it 3-0 before Jhon Solis was sent off and Kai Wagner suffered injury.

Chris Davies made two changes to the side that beat Norwich City, bringing Jay Stansfield and Ibrahim Osman into the side in order to rest Marvin Ducksch and Demarai Gray. Otherwise, the 20-man squad remained the same.

Typical of a midweeker between Millwall and Blues, the opening exchanges were hard fought and not for the neutral. It took 15 minutes for a notable effort on goal as Wagner’s delivery led to Solis striking on target. The hosts quickly went down the other end with Camiel Neghli finding Josh Coburn to head over.

Back-to-back chances again followed a few minutes later. Azeez showed his first flash of quality to deliver a teasing cross that so nearly caught Blues out. Davies’ side went straight down the other end with Crama playing Jay Stansfield in behind for a 2v1 that ended with an Anthony Patterson save. Osman blazed over from the resulting corner.

It proved a big chance with Millwall taking the lead a minute later. Blues did well to clear the first delivery but the second was nodded down by the giant Cooper for Azeez, whose technique was immaculate to fire a half volley into the top corner, with the help of a Beadle fingertip. A real moment of quality.

He was involved for the second on half hour. Setting up a free-kick 30-35 yards out, Azeez chose to strike at goal with Beadle only able to get a feint touch to push the ball against the post. The ball fell kindly for Crama who managed to steer the ball to the other side of the goal.

Blues had a couple of half chances from set-pieces, Wagner’s delivery to the near post hitting a body and falling just the wrong side of the post and just before the half-time whistle, a corner fell kindly for Solis but his strike was deflected over.

Gray arrived at half-time to ignite an insipid attack but the rest of the side failed to get going and it was 3-0 within five minutes of kick-off. A free-kick was delivered to the back post and Solis got his bearings wrong, nodding the ball up in the air and giving Crama the chance to keep the ball in play, a chance he took as Cooper stroked home the loose ball.

And if Solis’ and Blues’ night couldn’t get any worse, the Colombian was shown his marching orders a moment later. Already on a booking, he received a ball under pressure in the middle of the park but a loose touch presented a chance for a Millwall midfielder to step in. Solis was too late and scythed his man down.

The game died a death from that point, unhelped by Wagner being injured after a crunching challenge with Ryan Leonard. Mihailo Ivanovic nodded a corner wide at the near post, Neghli struck hard and low on target, Macaulay Langstaff and Casper De Norre were unsuccessful with headers and Neghli blazed over at the finish.

The unbeaten run ends and the gap extends to the top six.

Lineups

Millwall: Patterson; Leonard (McNamara 73) Crama Cooper Sturge (Doughty 73); Mitchell (Bannan 80) De Norre; Azeez (Watson 73) Langstaff Neghli; Coburn (Ivanovic 60). Unused: Crocombe; Mazou-Sacko Cundle Ballo.

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel Klarer Panzo Wagner (Laird 68); Iwata Solis; Vicente (Roberts 80) Stansfield (Ducksch 80) Osman (Gray 46); Priske (Doyle 54) Unused: Allsop; Neumann Robinson Fujimoto.

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Tactics

Both sides went 4-2-3-1 here, opting for second strikers rather than classic 10’s off the attack. The game plan was to press as a 4-4-2 or 4-1-3-2 type unit, looking to be aggressive off the ball and win individual duels.

An excellent summary of Millwall’s work out of possession was provided by Edward Stratmann on Twitter, who has shared clips showcasing how strong Millwall were out of possession in closing Blues down.

You can see in the video that their aim was to cut off the Blues midfield and get out quickly. They gambled a little bit. Langstaff (SS) would step up quick onto Klarer with Neghli (LW) doing similar to Osayi-Samuel. That would allow De Norre (CM) to get across onto Iwata, Azeez (RW) to get onto Solis and Sturge (LB) to get up against Vicente with Mitchell (DM) always close by in case Blues did turn out.

What often wound up happening was that Vicente would find himself under strong pressure and up against two, his passes back closed off and even if he did find the pass back, the players receiving would have their options closed off. What Blues required was somebody to take the ball against the pressure and burst into some space but that never really happened.

This isn’t to pick on Vicente necessarily because this wasn’t entirely on him, but when you see the forward passes we were able to make, the space was always available centrally if we got that pass into feet right. The aim being to receive against pressure and help sweep the ball across the other side.

Here is one instance from the video link above (third clip) where Vicente can receive and loses out. If he can take the ball inside, Priske is running off Cooper into space, Stansfield is in space and we will also have Wagner and Solis available to help move the ball over to the left so we can break.

This is another example. Klarer has found the pass inside to Vicente. If he can take possession and roll his man inside, the two Millwall midfielders are ahead of play. Instead, we play the ball back to Osayi-Samuel and close ourselves in. It doesn’t help that Osayi-Samuel then fails to play the longer pass for Priske and instead leaves it short, something he and Iwata did on a couple of occasions.

Predominantly, we just failed to make the right decisions in possession and failed to take the ball under pressure. Perhaps on another day we have Iwata in Osayi-Samuel’s role, we have Solis in Iwata’s role and Paik or Doyle on the other side, perhaps Roberts taking possession and looking to roll his man. Perhaps this was just a night where we had the wrong jigsaw pieces in the wrong places and it didn’t quite link up.

In terms of going the other way, Millwall went for quite a classic 3-1 shape in possession, popping Mitchell between the two centre-backs and having De Norre just in front. Both full-backs would then pull wide with the front four narrow, ensuring Blues had to be careful in the press.

I think we dropped back a little quickly at points, jumping into the 4-4-2 rather than having one of the wingers quick to push on to whichever centre-back was receiving the ball, allowing the team to jump. A little like our in-possession work, we were just a little slow off the mark at points.

The truth is, this carried out for most of the first-half and by the time the second half arrived, we were 3-0 down and had a man sent off. We moved to a 4-4-1 from that point, later adopting closer to a 4-3-2 with Gray having a touch more license while Roberts stepped infield but the game was done.

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The goals conceded

Oh boy. Here we go.

Millwall 1-0 Blues

Long throw. Osman on the thrower. Wagner with Azeez. Solis v Crama. Priske v Cooper. Iwata v Langstaff. Panzo v Coburn. Stansfield v De Norre. Osayi-Samuel v Neghli. Klarer free. Vicente on edge.

Ball comes in. Little awkward but we’re well positioned and Osayi-Samuel has boot away.

Sturge receives as the only man back. Blues start to reorganise, picking up more normal positions, which means Wagner (LB) is now marking Crama, who has stayed up from the throw.

A couple of issues arise.

The first is that while the defence get up, Wagner doesn’t. He is a couple of yards behind his defenders dropping quickly and Crama is onside.

The second, as you can see from the image below, is that Osman has gone to close the wide man and points to Azeez to make sure somebody is marking him. Nobody takes responsibility for Azeez. Osman probably should.

In fairness from that point, Azeez does fucking brilliantly to control and smash home.

Beadle?

Hopefully you can see the ball between Panzo and Solis there. Beadle is only now landing on his feet to move. Footwork. Footwork. Footwork.

Millwall 2-0 Blues

The second sort of begins here. We’ve forced the ball back to the goalkeeper. The press is sound and Patterson has to go long.

We have to defend this smarter. Panzo allows Coburn to pin him and ensure the ball drops rather than being headed clear or back to Beadle. It’s soft.

Langstaff beats Solis to the loose ball and Solis has to bring him down.

Osman is with Crama as Azeez lines up the shot.

He isn’t by the time Crama is scoring.

Fair to say Wagner isn’t impressed with him. Or Solis. Or Beadle. Or Vicente. Or Klarer.

Can Beadle do better?

Possibly. I wonder if the swerve on the ball going wider fools him a little so he doesn’t push off as much as he ultimately needed to.

Millwall 3-0 Blues

Here is where the clip starts. Coburn has again pinned Panzo, and Panzo can’t do anything about it. He gives away the foul because he’s not strong or wily enough to find a way out.

The free-kick we line up like below.

I’ll be honest, I’ve never really worked out marking from these free-kicks. Most teams seems to leave a man free at the back post, expecting that a ball into a dangerous position will be headed by themselves, and if the ball is delivered wide enough to guarantee a back post header, the big men are in the centre to mark up and attack the ball.

Our problem is simply that Solis gets himself into a state. He’s put off by the jump of Cooper. Manages to push the ball up in the air off his back and Crama is left free, partly in thanks to Osayi-Samuel being blocked off.

From there, it’s all about response. Crama somehow manages to find Cooper perfectly having thrown an outstretched leg at the ball in the hope of keeping it in play.

So, three goals. Three set-plays. The new lads involved in most of them, switching off or being bullied by physical opposition.

Welcome to the Championship

Nothing says classic Championship football like a trip to The Den when Millwall are on song.

They’re big. They’re horrible. They’re aggressive. They’re direct. They maximise set-piece situations. They’re organised. They’re third for a reason. You have to stand up to the test, earn the right to play and take every chance you get when you win those battles.

We have a very talented squad, but as I have warned during previous reports, our January recruits are going to take some getting used to the Championship before we can rely on them heavily and after a nice schedule to ease in, this was a proper “welcome to the Championship” type match.

Early on, we were battling well. We weren’t necessarily winning all of our battles but we hung with Millwall, being strong defensively, recovering well and finding a way out of the first wave of pressing. Up until the goal, we had given up two decent crossing opportunities and little else. What we were failing to do consistently was give ourselves a break, instead regularly giving away the ball through either poor decisions or a failure to hold possession against pressure. That served to put more pressure on those in defensive areas and eventually we cracked.

It was a game too far for some of the lads that have stepped into the fray recently and I think it’s okay to say that without writing them off. It’s not saying they aren’t good enough, but that we probably had one too many new lads on the pitch figuring it out at the same time and Millwall were red-hot here, desperate to avenge a really poor defeat at the weekend and the hammering they suffered at our place. It was a mix that left us short against strong opposition.

I think if Davies had his time again, he would consider other alterations. So much of our game here ended with the wrong players being caught in tight areas and struggling to find the out, whether that was Vicente or Osman on either flank with their back to play or Iwata and Osayi-Samuel receiving the ball back with pressure from all sides.

Paik was a big miss here in terms of the ball retention. Roberts and Gray – who I suspect was only dropped due to ongoing fitness building – probably would have been more comfortable stepping infield. Doyle was ready to come on before Solis was sent off and I wonder if the plan was to remove Osayi-Samuel, push Iwata to right-back, Solis to the more defensive position and Doyle on the other side so we could start sweeping the ball over and have Vicente wider. Alas, it never came to pass.

My main take is that we’ve been much worse on the road this season. We didn’t deserve to take anything from the game – and Davies was honest about that post-match too – but performances at Coventry, Sheffield United and Watford were much worse than this. This was just a poor performance rather than a shambolic one.

It’s now time to take stock. We’ve had a good run, gone eight unbeaten in the league and pulled ourselves back into play-off contention. Earn a result Monday and we put this one behind us. The response is important now.

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Opposition

I’ve got a lot of time for Milwall and what the club stands for as far as its playing identity is concerned. Perhaps I see some similarities with Blues, a working class club a little looked down on and a fanbase that demands hard work and responds to “proper” players.

They do have some “proper” players as well. Their spine is full of them. Jake Cooper is closing in on record appearances in the second tier and was excellent here, dominating his duel with August Priske while leaving a couple on the young lad. I’m a huge fan of Billy Mitchell, who I think is vastly underrated when it comes to conversations around Championship midfielders. His midfield partner De Norre was excellent too. And then Josh Coburn in attack, an old-school, awkward opponent that got plenty of change out of Panzo.

Then we’ve got Femi Azeez. He has been getting rave reviews and this is the first time I’ve seen him live for Millwall. He produced a gorgeous moment before his worldie of a goal. His free-kick was superbly struck and his quality was the difference on a night that required somebody to stand up and do something.

Next up: Middlesbrough (h)

Another biggie. Let’s see what the boys are made of.

We might find ourselves making a few changes for this one. Tommy Doyle replaces the suspended Jhon Solis in midfield. Ethan Laird likely replaces the injured Kai Wagner at left-back. Demarai Gray comes back in on the left. I think Patrick Roberts will come in on the right in place of Carlos Vicente. Does Marvin Ducksch return? I think so, and in truth I’m comfortable with either Jay Stansfield or August Priske stepping aside.

This won’t be an easy game, and our midfield being weakened isn’t ideal with Middlesbrough having a strong, experienced midfield four of Alan Browne, Hayden Hackney, Aidan Morris and Riley McGree. They’re a really good outfit and we will have to show some mettle and quality to get the better of them.

A win is obviously the target. A point isn’t the worst result. I’m hoping our depth proves pivotal. Here’s hoping we get it right.

KRO.

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Blues stormed out of the blocks and took a two-goal lead through Carlos Vicente and Marvin Ducksch. Canaries captain Kenny McLean responded but Blues were able to see the game out and make it three consecutive away victories.

Davies made three changes from the side that were so good against Premier League Leeds United in the FA Cup last week. James Beadle replaced Ryan Allsop in net while Tommy Doyle and Jay Stansfield, who both played the full 120 in that game despite having to nurse muscle issues in extra time, stepped aside for Tomoki Iwata and Marvin Ducksch. Ethan Laird and Jack Robinson also returned to the matchday squad after injury.

It was a fast start from both sides and Blues almost led within a minute, August Priske flicking a long ball on for Vicente, who couldn’t quite poke the ball either side of Vladan Kovacevic.

The Spaniard soon had his goal, however. Blues baited the press well and Klarer was able to find Bright Osayi-Samuel on the right. He got the ball out of his feet quickly and found Vicente moving in behind the Norwich centre-backs before finishing into the near post.

The chances continued. Jhon Solis was caught but Liam Gibbs’ effort was tame. Blues then broke with August Priske doing well to chest and volley a Demarai Gray left-wing delivery only for Kovacevic to meet the effort. From the resulting corner, the ball rebounded against Klarer but rolled kindly for the keeper.

Blues were two-ahead within the same minute. Osayi-Samuel again did brilliantly to find the pass in behind Jose Cordoba and Priske showed good speed, strength and delivery to find Ducksch for a first-time finish.

The hosts began to find their feet but it was Blues that came closest next. Gray managed to step inside and his shot deflected up in the air with Priske ready to attack it. Cordoba’s touch made it more awkward but the Swede looked to have made it three only for Kovacevic to guide it narrowly wide.

Phillipe Clement’s side were beginning to look more dangerous though. Ali Ahmed had a shot blocked while Mohamed Toure curled well wide of the target. Beadle did well to deny Toure after McLean latched onto a left-wing cross and the striker should have done better when free at the back post from the resulting corner.

Blues saw out the rest of the half with Jonathan Panzo of all people coming closest after a teasing Gray delivery. A fine defensive block ensured the score remained 2-0 at half-time.

Norwich made a change at half-time and came out of the blocks well. Ben Chrisene blazed over before Beadle was forced to make an excellent double stop to deny Kellen Fisher and Toure. From the resulting corner, Ruari McConville headed wide. Blues had an opportunity when Gray struck a free-kick over the bar but Toure was quickly in behind and struck the post with a powerful shot.

It was therefore no surprise when Norwich pulled one back heading into the final quarter of the game. Panzo did well to reach a left-wing cross under pressure but the ball dropped nicely for McLean who rifled a bouncing ball into the top corner.

Norwich were quickly on the attack again with Anis Ben Slimane shooting weakly at Beadle’s goal. After Patrick Roberts’ shot was blocked, Beadle was forced into action with Maghoma finding Mathias Kvistgaarden in the area.

A double change proved important for Blues in an attempt to gain some control back. While Ahmed, Kvistgaarden and Slimane were able to try their luck, Beadle wasn’t tested and Blues saw the game out.

Lineups

Norwich City: Kovacevic; Fisher McConville Cordoba (Darling 90) Chrisene (Stacey 84); Field McLean; Gibbs (Maghoma 46) Slimane Ahmed (Springett 90); Toure (Kvistgaarden 71). Unused: Grimshaw; Wright Marcondes Mundle-Smith.

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel (Laird 78) Klarer Panzo Wagner; Iwata Solis; Vicente (Roberts 71) Ducksch (Stansfield 71) Gray (Osman 62); Priske (Doyle 78). Unused: Allsop; Neumann Robinson Fujimoto.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2 shapes here, very much operating with a second striker rather than a classic ‘10’.

The game plan from both sides out of possession early on was to go for the jugular in the counter-press. Both sides went man-for-man in the press with wide open gaps forming for forward runners to attack. And so centre-backs were drawn out of position challenging forwards dropping off the front while full-backs were dragged wider leaving centre-backs with space to defend. Only once slower possession was found did either side drop back into standard 4-4-2 / 4-2-4 shapes in a bid to stop the opposition midfield receiving the ball.

This was shown for Norwich in the build up to Blues’ opener, where we won back possession and Panzo found Priske. You’ll see in the image below that Cordoba (LCB) is stepping right on to Priske while McConville (RCB) is already 10 or so yards into the Blues half watching Ducksch. Chrisene (LB) is the only player on halfway and if Blues got this right, Gray may have been in behind.

As it was, Blues were able to steady themselves and settle into possession. What followed was us baiting the press and opening the space for Klarer to receive, with Ahmed then tasked with covering the space between Klarer and Osayi-Samuel. However, he got caught between while Chrisene wasn’t quick to step out, watchful of Vicente. And so we got to this position:

And then this position:

And it was exactly the same for the second goal. Osayi-Samuel wins loose possession and bursts past Ahmed. He looks up and with Chrisene following Vicente back in, Blues are 3v3 if we can find the pass in behind.

The lead up to the second goal actually came after Norwich had done their job drawing us on. Risk for reward but on this occasion, the Canaries escaped and we were left in this position. Fortunately, Osayi-Samuel was first to the ball over the top.

What Blues did well during build-up was not task Ducksch with too much midfield work. Instead, he was generally able to stay on the periphery was we looked to force the ball towards the Norwich left. Iwata would then step across, allowing Osayi-Samuel to stay in line while Solis covered, supported by Ducksch and Gray nearby in case the ball was swept across.

What Norwich did well in their press after the early goings was when forcing Blues back, they covered the ball across to Klarer or Wagner, instead hoping Blues would play blindly to escape. This meant the only pass being the centre-back in the middle – often Panzo – where Norwich could draw in as a unit and cut off the options.

After the early goings, Blues were a little less ballsy with the press and did begin to drop slightly, happy to keep a 4-4-2 shape and take their opportunities to step out, which made sense given the intensity.

One of the keys to Norwich being able to get more involved in the game was Osayi-Samuel’s reticence to get too tight to Ahmed when found in the pockets, and as Blues’ energy dropped, the option to find Ahmed became more available. With Klarer having to step onto Slimane, space did open up and this is why Toure was able to regularly break in behind the Blues backline for a period.

Generally, Norwich began to deliver because their intensity upped and ours dropped. Davies wound up making four more substitutions after the home response, mostly designed to give Blues a lift and a little more control.

The goal conceded

As always, I’ll take a look. I’ve covered the goals we scored above.

We start here and generally, we’ve not done a good enough job of cutting off McLean in possession. He has stepped between our strikers and can now look forward, able to take on Solis and play the ball wide.

While McLean is stepping forward and finding Ahmed, Blues end up dropping a little deep.

Osayi-Samuel is watching Ahmed. Klarer drops into a position to defend the near post like every centre-back should. Panzo and Wagner are then tasked to defend Toure and Maghoma while Slimane is nearby so Solis has dropped in. Iwata is in position to watch the forward run with McLean continuing his run. Vicente drops in to make it a 2v1 against Ahmed, forcing the ball back. Ducksch is also following McLean back in, so finds himself a touch too deep.

Klarer is quick to push the defence out once Ahmed plays the ball backwards. However, there are a couple of issues.

Firstly, Ducksch has dropped in too deep and Iwata is already telling him to get out, as is Priske. Vicente is also tiring and having dropped back in, he doesn’t get out to Chrisene with any intensity.

At the back post, meanwhile, Panzo and Wagner are marking three players. Panzo has always been with Slimane while Toure has moved off Solis, who has regained what is the more common position for a defensive midfield to sweep up on the edge.

Panzo reacts well to his credit, never getting goal side of Toure but doing enough to ensure he can get contact on the ball, defending strongly.

From there, it’s all about where the ball lands and on this occasion, it falls kindly for McLean.

So, a few issues. Failing to stop McLean in the first instance and making it too easy for him to step forward. The lack of intensity to get out and close the cross. A lack of communication in the middle as far as marking and passing people on is concerned.

If I’m to go big anywhere, it would be the lack of intensity to cut off McLean and close the cross. This is why Davies ended up making changes shortly afterwards.

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A big win

Blues have won away from home this season. We beat Blackburn with a late double. We beat Preston North End having had to really soak up pressure throughout. We beat Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford United... because they’re the bottom two.

Norwich City may be low in the table and we may have thumped them 4-1 at our place. However, that was in Phillipe Clement’s first game in charge and since that day they have been the 5^th best team in the Championship, winning nine and losing just five of 17 matches. They came into this one having won 7 of their last 8 in all competitions, scoring 22 goals.

What I’m saying is, we were going to have to be good to win.

The start was electric. We had a clear game plan to exploit Norwich’s left and we did just that, drawing them on, moving the ball quickly and finding the forward pass when the opportunity arrived. For one of the first times this season, we thrived in chaos and took our opportunities. The involvements of Priske and Vicente were key, pressing quickly and making regular forward runs in behind.

Meanwhile, we were brave defensively outselves but showed good composure or awareness to ensure chances weren’t created, Panzo’s speed and Klarer’s aggressiveness resulting in free-kicks or blocks being made. It wasn’t pretty, but sometimes you’ve got to get the job done.

Naturally, we slowed. It was a high intensity start. Blues as a team haven’t been used to winning away from home so there were a few nerves. And there is another point that I’ll get onto below.

But we showed some maturity. Klarer was in full shithousing mode, knowing he wasn’t going to win a sprint but doing enough to block, foul, pull shirts, nudge or whatever he needed to do to avoid being caught and as the game wore on, he stood tall.

Meanwhile, Priske did brilliantly to win a couple of cheap free-kicks. In the second half we slowed the game down when we needed to, taking time over set-pieces while Priske and Solis played for time by going down with injuries. It’s not nice, but you have to do it.

Meanwhile, our depth was in full show with us being able to bring on Stansfield, Osman, Roberts, Doyle and Laird. Those final two subs made a big difference, particularly Doyle who gave us a little bit more control and support to the midfield.

This was the best of our five away wins this season and a sign that we can do it.

The importance of depth

In our starting XI today, we had five January signings playing, none of whom have been playing regular football in England. We also have Demarai Gray returning from injury. The only division more intense than the Championship according to metrics? The Premier League. This is a big cultural and physical change for these boys, no matter how talented they are and it’s why so many foreign imports have a tendency to take time to adjust.

We shot out of the blocks here. A lot of these boys are powerful and when you add Osayi-Samuel, Iwata and Gray, we look a pretty decent side on that front. We outperformed Norwich in those early goings. However, keeping up that intensity isn’t easy at the best of times, let alone when you consider the above-mentioned adaptation.

We’re in the lead. Norwich need to step up a gear. We have to keep playing at a high intensity to keep Norwich at bay and it’s not easy. Naturally, we drop off, our touch isn’t quite as strong, we begin to lose a few duels, Norwich begin to work through our press.

However, we have something important now. We have real depth.

And so when Gray is tiring, Osman comes on and his speed immediately gives us a boost as we send him away down the left-hand side. After they score, we bring on Roberts and Stansfield, the former able to keep the ball while the latter gives us extra energy in the final third. And then we add Laird and Doyle. Osayi-Samuel is tiring and being caught in behind while we need a little bit of control in midfield and Doyle can arrive to provide that.

It’s not that we turned the entire game around. But it turns what potentially becomes a really dicey situation into one that we have more control over. We had outballs. We had a little extra energy. We galvanise a little bit. We see it out.

James Beadle

I discussed the goalkeeping situation last week and wanted to pick up on Beadle. We’ve seen enough of him now and we can begin to pinpoint where he thrives and where he needs to improve.

The reason I want to discuss him is because he was excellent today and a key reason why we came away with the points. What Beadle does best is react at close range. His ability to respond to efforts at close range is excellent. He made an excellent stop to dip a Toure effort over the bar, a big double stop at the start of the second half and another with an outstretched leg at the near post.

Though his performance against West Brom was a little dicey in the swirling wind and rain, he is generally pretty strong when it comes to claiming crosses and set-pieces, something of a lost art amongst modern goalkeepers. As he gets older and wises up, it will become an important asset for him.

He can be inconsistent, but his kicking is generally strong as far as accuracy is concerned. What I would like to see is him develop more of a flat, powerful kick and maybe that will come as his body develops. We speak about outfielders being tall and growing into their bodies later and that is probably the same for goalkeepers. Hopefully Allsop is regularly teaching him how to hit those hard, flat balls from deep that move people in behind quicker than high, looping balls that are accurate but easier to defend.

I wonder if that improvement physically will also help his footwork when it comes to saves shots from distance, where he often finds himself pushing off at the wrong point opening more of the goal up despite his size.

He has received a bit of stick this year. I don’t think it helps that Ryan Allsop is a fan favourite and Beadle wasn’t the obvious upgrade we hoped for. However, there has definitely been development as the season has gone on and I’m leaning towards the call that this has been a positive loan for him. Hopefully he can continue to produce saves like today and make that loan worth it for us.

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Opposition

I thought there were minor signs during our 4-1 thrashing of Norwich City back in November that they had something about them and their form since suggests that Phillipe Clement has hit upon a formula to make them far more dangerous.

I enjoyed them here. They were brave, fluid and regularly found opportunities for their striker – you can see why Josh Sargent, Jovan Makama and now Mo Toure are scoring goals. It helps that all three have real power about them.

Elsewhere, I’ve long been a fan of Kenny McLean, who is a very intelligent operator at this level despite his advancing years. Paris Maghoma was also a key substitute. I think we’ll see a couple of their boys move for good money in the future and they’re definitely staying up.

Next up: Millwall (a)

Another big test as we travel to third place Millwall.

Win, and we cut the gap to the team currently in third place to four points. That is a huge incentive – it brings so many clubs back into the race for the top-six rather than it being a race for sixth. Especially with Hull City dropping results recently.

I’m interested to see how we line up. Davies has spoken about rotation and we now play Wednesday, Monday, Saturday, Wednesday, Saturday. Not the worst schedule, but awkward enough without a full week’s rest with some big tests on the horizon. Does Stansfield return? Does Osman replace Gray, to keep Gray fresh for Boro? Does Roberts return? What about Doyle?

The double-header with Millwall is always awkward, both games usually falling on a midweek during the late autumn or winter months in the freezing cold. It’s going to be a battle and one we have to be ready for. I’m looking forward to it, as we find our more about this group.

KRO.

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Lukas Nmecha gave the visitors a second half lead but Chris Davies’ earned their fortune as Patrick Roberts scored in front of the St.Andrews home faithful for the first time. A gutsy extra-time display followed before Premier League quality was shown in the shootout.

Chris Davies made six changes. Ryan Allsop returned in net, Jonathan Panzo and August Priske made full debuts while Tommy Doyle, Carlos Vicente and Demarai Gray returned to the starting XI. James Beadle, Phil Neumann, Patrick Roberts, Marvin Ducksch and Ibrahim Osman dropped to the bench while the injured Paik Seung-Ho dropped out of the squad along with Tomoki Iwata and Kyogo Furuhashi. Brad Mayo, Billy Burrell and Zaid Betteka stepped in.

Blues were excellent from the off and started on the front foot with a number of set-piece deliveries causing problems. Jhon Solis had the first chance, volleying a Doyle corner into the side-netting. Leeds keeper Lucas Perri produced a top-class save to deny Jay Stansfield the opener while Solis, Vicente, Christoph Klarer, Kai Wagner and Gray all had efforts at goal before the 20-minute mark.

It took the visitors half hour to have their first notable shot at goal, Sean Longstaff firing on target from distance. Blues didn’t let Leeds settle, however, and Perri did brilliantly to deny Gray and parry the ball away from Stansfield, who was free in the area for anything that dropped.

Blues began the second half on the front foot with Kai Wagner’s teasing delivery to the back post falling just the wrong side of the crossbar. Those missed chances would soon prove costly.

Noah Okafor showed good awareness to slip between Solis and Bright Osayi-Samuel before feeding Nmecha. Klarer’s challenge was well-timed but ricocheted fortunately to the ex-Man City youngster who showed good feet before rifling home.

Blues were not deterred. Vicente broke down the right with his delivery close to finding the outstretched boot of Priske. A moment later and a corner fell nicely for Stansfield to volley with nobody in blue and white able to turn the effort home. Osman then somehow got hold of a loose ball and worked a shot that was deflected wide.

The hosts were beginning to tire while Leeds were bringing on their first-teamers. Ethan Ampadu had a shot blocked. Jaka Bijol powered a header wide and James Justin got ahead at the near post and directed a header just over. It felt like they were beginning to manage things with Premier League quality.

But Blues weren’t out of it. The speed of Osman was a huge plus and he did brilliantly to burst away from Justin before failing to find Stansfield and Ducksch then volleying a loose ball wide. A few minutes later and he was found free at the back post, making the right move but again finding the wrong execution.

Davies was bold and swapped Osayi-Samuel for Kanya Fujimoto, going 3-5-2 and pushing for the equaliser. It worked. A corner from the right-hand side wasn’t one of Wagner’s best but Roberts was first to loose ball, took a touch and finally beat Perri with the aid of a deflection.

That was in the 90^th minute and yet the game wasn’t over. Leeds kept alive a long throw only for Wagner to throw himself at Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s low drive. Wagner then cleverly found Osman in the area with a throw of his own and the loanee showed the composure he had lacked before only to see his effort roll against the inside of the post. Fujimoto was first to the loose ball only for a Leeds defender to throw himself at the ball.

Full-time, 1-1.

Extra-time was somewhat chaotic as both sides went for it, yet chances were few and far between with neither side willing to give this one up.

Blues’ best opportunity came in the first quarter as Stansfield drove forward, his weak shot finding Osman at the back stick to blaze over. In the second half, Calvert-Lewin was found nicely by Jayden Bogle but Allsop stood firm.

And so, to penalties. Stansfield, Piroe, Ducksch and Calvert-Lewin all found the net. Doyle was on target but Perri was equal to it. After Aaronson gave Leeds the lead, Roberts stepped up only to fire over the bar. Longstaff confidently finished to put Leeds into the next round.

A gutting finish, but a brave performance that deserved more.

Lineups

Blues: Allsop; Osayi-Samuel (Fujimoto 82) Klarer Panzo (Neumann 91) Wagner; Doyle Solis (Betteka 114); Vicente (Roberts 74) Stansfield Gray (Osman 46); Priske (Ducksch 74). Unused: Beadle Mayo; Burrell.

Leeds: Perri; Justin Bijol Bornauw (Rodon 91); Gnonto (Aaronson 68); Longstaff Tanaka (Piroe 78) Gudmundsson; Buonanotte (Ampadu 46) Okafor (Bogle 82) Nmecha (Calvert-Lewin 68). Unused: Darlow; Byram Gruev.

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Tactics

Blues lined up in a 4-2-3-1 while Leeds were more 3-4-3.

For the most part, the sides matched up which is what created the space for Blues to attack.

Leeds operated in what became a 3-3-4, Buouanatte and Longstaff having license to drift either side of Tanaka in possession with Okafor moving more narrow towards Nmecha while Gudmundsson and Gnonto held width. In response, Stansfield would join Solis and Doyle in midfield areas, leaving the front three against the Leeds back three or four ready to break, Vicente and Gray often right out wide while Priske was a willing runner into the channels as an outball.

As a showcase of this – and this does admittedly lead to the Leeds opener – we have the below. Justin (RCB) is with Osman with Bijol (LCB) with Priske. Gudmundsson (LWB) is chasing Vicente with Bornauw (CCB) running back having stepped right up with Stansfield initially.

Leeds did show some fluidity, Gudmundsson and Gnonto having license to step infield to allow somebody else to take wider berths, hoping the movement would catch Blues off guard but we generally stuck to task with plenty of communication.

However, what Blues did well was press aggressively across the back with Stansfield particularly excellent in forcing the longer pass from Bijol or Bornauw. They generally wanted to use Nmecha up against Panzo and work off him, while also trying to get Gnonto in behind Wagner but Blues were usually wise to the danger, or simply worked hard enough to avoid it.

In possession, Blues tried to build towards the usual shape. Wagner tucked in next to Panzo and Klarer with Gray holding width. Vicente was predominantly the winger to step infield, looking to work off Priske which allowed Osayi-Samuel to step on when the opportunity emerged. As the first half wore on, we saw Stansfield and Gray switch in play to open things up, similar to what we had done during a couple of early season games when space was available.

Unlike most Championship games where things are much tighter and space is condensed, Leeds were aggressive and space was available so the space was available to play a more direct game. With Allsop and Wagner in particular strong in their distribution, Blues were regularly able to find the forward pass in behind with Vicente, Gray and later Osman superb in their work racing beyond their full-backs.

Where Leeds wanted to catch us was the pass across the back to Klarer, with Okafor looking to sneak in on the blindside but Klarer was excellent, usually quick to step away or find the first pass. Justin and Gudmundsson were aggressive in closing down Gray and Osayi-Samuel but Blues were usually good enough to work the ball back and find the outball.

Leeds made a half-time change with Ampadu on for Buounatte. Ampadu dropped to the deepest midfield position, allowing Tanaka more license as the LCM and Longstaff to step on into the RAM role. This improved Leeds simply by having a more reliable foil at the base of midfield and ensured Blues’ danger had to come more from wide positions rather than down the middle.

Blues moved to 3-5-2 with 10 to go as Fujimoto replaced Osayi-Samuel. This saw us go with Roberts and Osman as wing-backs while Fujimoto and Solis flanked Doyle in midfield.

Leeds made a couple of positional changes with Aaronson coming on in a right-sided role. Piroe replaced Tanaka with Longstaff dropping deeper. Bogle then replaced Okafor with Aaronson dropping into the ‘10’ while Bogle played higher. Leeds were more 4-2-3-1 than 3-4-3 at this point.

Panzo was replaced by Neumann for extra-time. Klarer moved back to the centre of defence with Neumann to the right.

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Goal conceded

I won’t re-add the screenshot from above, but it does start with us playing forward for Priske, hoping to find the run of Vicente.

The issue is that when Bijol’s header reaches Okafor, all of Solis, Osayi-Samuel and Doyle gamble on him doing the safe thing - taking a touch and finding the pass. If he does that, all three, combined with Priske and Stansfield are in great spots to read the next pass and close in.

Okafor gambles instead, presumably seeing Solis in his eyeline, and turns towards goal. Three players cut out in an instance and there are now three Blues defenders between four Leeds attackers and Allsop’s goal.

Klarer slides in on Nmecha and gets a little unlucky with the ricochet having won the tackle. He perhaps could have closed the space off and waited for support but honestly, I think it was there to win, Nmecha tries to get out of the way and the ball rebounds fortunately off his left calf.

As Klarer goes in for the challenge, Solis slows down thinking his team-mate has won the ball rather than continuing his run, and that brief stoppage costs him the yard or two needed to be the right side of Nmecha and force backwards or outside. Doyle and Panzo are covering forward runners and have generally stuck to task, so there’s no blame to them.

The gambling out of possession is the reason we are able to press effectively but on this occasion, we simply got caught with too many trying to gamble at the same time, and the ricochet is unfortunate. It happens. But when you’re facing Premier League quality, you get punished.

An outball

After being the dominant team for 20-25 minutes, the game settled down and Leeds found their feet. Of course they did – they have a better football team than us.

In such situations this season, where either the opposition have settled or our levels have dropped, we have struggled to manage the game and put ourselves under needless pressure. Even when we find the front four, everything is done quickly and the team doesn’t get a chance to settle and find their feet again.

It’s why I was delighted after a good five or so minutes of pressure, the ball was found August Priske. He got himself between marker and ball, held it and then won a free-kick. He sat down, took a moment to recover and the game stopped.

Brilliant.

It might not be particularly nice, but these are the things you have to do. Even on a good day, you can’t play high intensity football for 90 minutes. You have to give yourself a moment to breathe, especially in a division as intense as the Championship or Premier League.

Should Priske now start every game? Probably not. This was an excellent audition but let’s let the kid grow in his own time. Besides, different games are going to suit different players. Some games, such as Ipswich on opening or Leeds on Sunday, are going to see us have big spaces behind the opposition defence to attack. Others, such as Stoke and Leicester at home recently, are going to suit players that work in smaller spaces and drop off the attack to link play.

We now have Vicente, Roberts, Gray, Osman, Stansfield, Priske and Ducksch all fighting for four spots. Hopefully Davies can pick the right options for the right games.

Allsop or Beadle

Firstly, let’s just praise Ryan Allsop.

The boyhood blue was at his best here and while it sounds like an odd thing to say about a goalkeeper, he really is a delight to watch when he’s on song. Whether teeing up free-kicks down the throat of the Leeds defence or drilling passes first time to set wingers and forwards away out wide, his ability to kick a football is unique for a player in his position.

His performance has led to a lot of calls for Davies to reinstate him as first choice and I can understand it. There is little doubt that Allsop is aesthetically more pleasing than Beadle, who gives off similar vibes to Nick Pope at times, while Beadle’s performance against West Brom has once again led to fans questioning him. You sense there is more calmness with Allsop between the sticks too.

However, I think it is also worth acknowledging that Allsop was dropped in favour of Beadle because he wasn’t exactly performing. His numbers both for claiming crosses and saving shots were amongst the poorest in the division and there is little denying that his performance against Leeds was by far and away his best of the season. Beadle has been the better goalkeeper in 2025-26.

I like Allsop, so I wouldn’t necessarily be sad if he returned to the side, particularly if showed similar levels to Sunday. However, Beadle has had the shirt on merit and I’m comfortable if that continues to be the case.

Neumann or Panzo

Another interesting one ahead of Norwich.

Jonathan Panzo made his first start since joining from Rio Ave on Sunday and acquitted himself well. He covered the ground well, offered an out as a leftie, didn’t look too concerned sitting in the centre of the back three in possession and had a decent duel against Nmecha, giving up a couple of free-kicks but also rarely looking rattled.

Like Allsop, there are calls that Davies now needs to start Panzo. I’m going to be boring again.

I’ll say now, I’m quite comfortable if Davies makes the call to start Panzo. He performed well. We’ve not really nailed down the centre-half partner for Christoph Klarer. Sure, give the lad a shot.

However, Neumann has also been better recently, and he showed he had a bit about him against West Brom while not 100% fit following the knock suffered against Leicester. Also, like Allsop, a performance in a one-off cup tie is a bit different to the hustle, bustle and pressure of league football.

I guess what I’m saying is, let’s just back the decision Davies makes in goal and at centre-back (and probably elsewhere) and see if the players step up. If they don’t, boy do we have the quality to change it.

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Opposition

A weird one to discuss given Leeds made various changes and clearly weren’t as up for it as we were.

Their class showed at points. Nmecha and Okafor were ruthless for the goal. I thought Ethan Ampadu was top drawer when he arrived onto the field. Dominic Calvert-Lewin certainly worked himself a couple of opportunities and Jayden Bogle was strong in a short spell.

We didn’t exactly see the best of them, but you can at half pace why they won promotion last season and are competitive in the Premier League.

Next up: Norwich City (a)

I’m looking forward to this one, but more from the point of view of seeing what this new-look Blues are really about rather than expectation of victory.

It’s an away game against opposition that have won 7 of their last 8, scoring 22 goals in the process and their only defeat in that period came away at Middlesbrough. Despite their league position, they are a different animal to the one we faced back in November.

In terms of who plays, I’m going to predict that Beadle and Iwata get the nod. I think Neumann may start ahead of Panzo but I’m less confident there. If fit, Paik comes back in. Given Norwich are an attacking outfit that play a high line, I’m tempted to suggest Priske and Vicente get the go ahead with Ducksch possibly more suited to play against Millwall, where their defence want to drop a little closer to goal.

Up the Blues.

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Victory would have taken Blues into the top six for the first time since August but fortune was against the hosts as they failed to score at home in the league for the first time since April.

Chris Davies made two changes to the XI that beat Leicester City at the weekend, Patrick Roberts and Bright Osayi-Samuel replacing Carlos Vicente and Tomoki Iwata, who dropped to the bench. Demarai Gray returned to the squad for the first time since Boxing Day, replacing Briar Bateman on the bench.

The early goings were hard-fought. Jed Wallace had a low effort comfortably saved while Paik’s whipped free-kick had to be headed over by a West Brom head. The resulting corner led to controversy as Paik’s goal-bound header was blocked by Callum Styles, first by his knees and then by his hand. Nobody saw it and Max O’Leary was able to claw away before Marvin Ducksch got a touch.

Paik was injured in the aftermath and Blues’ play wasn’t quite as fluid in the aftermath. Wallace’s shot was deflected just wide before Osayi-Samuel’s driving run ended with a wayward cross that needed tipping over. Tommy Doyle came close with an Olympic goal from the resulting corner.

Another Doyle set-piece threatened with Ibrahim Osman free at the back post but denied by O’Leary. Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba showed good feet to create an opportunity for the visitors while Jay Stansfield couldn’t turn a right-wing cross on target.

The second half began like the first ended, West Brom aggressive out of position while Blues tried to build into good areas. There was little goalmouth action outside of Jayson Molumby firing wide post-long throw.

A triple change made the difference for Blues as Vicente, Iwata and August Priske arrived. The former was quickly involved, crossing for Jhon Solis whose header was half volleyed on target by Osman only for Charlie Taylor to produce one of the finest goal-line clearances you will see this season.

Blues were threatening from both sides. Vicente’s deep cross was volleyed into the stands by Osman while Osman’s good work led to a chance for Ducksch that was struck well but met again by O’Leary. Christoph Klarer then had a header blocked.

The Baggies had one final moment for glory when Callum Styles tried his luck from distance but it was all Blues at the death and they really ought to have won the points.

It began when Ousmane Diakite sent Ducksch through with a weak header back to his keeper but Ducksch couldn’t quite lift the ball over O’Leary with the goal empty.

Next was a disallowed goal. Kai Wagner’s corner was perfect for Priske who shrugged off his marker to nod home and send the crowd into raptures only for the linesman’s flag to cut the celebration short. Demarai Gray was stood on the keeper and obstructed his view.

A moment later and Gray escaped a melee in the middle to drive through on goal with he and Vicente 2v1, only for Charlie Taylor to produce another game-saving moment, this time yanking Gray back cynically to deny the opportunity.

And there was still time right at the death for Vicente to step into the area and deliver, the defensive block sending the ball crashing against the post before Solis’ effort was deflected wide.

It wasn’t to be. A goalless draw.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel (Iwata 58) Neumann Klarer Wagner; Solis Paik (Doyle 15); Roberts (Vicente 58) Ducksch Osman (Gray 79); Stansfield (Priske 58). Unused: Allsop; Panzo Fujimoto Kyogo.

West Bromwich Albion: O’Leary; Imray (Gilchrist 46) Phillips (Bielik 90) Taylor Styles; Molumby Mowatt; Wallace (Johnston 61) Price Jimoh-Aloba (Diakite 70); Heggebo (Dike 61). Unused: Griffiths; Whitwell Bostock Maja.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 shapes here.

The aim for both sides out of possession was to sit off and wait for the right opportunity to break, moving from 4-1-4-1 shapes and trying to keep play in front of them. When the opportunity for the striker to press came, the expectation was that 4-1-4-1 would become a full, narrow 4-4-2 press with the striker joined by his partner and the deeper central midfielder stepping on. This forced both sides to look wide or more direct for options in possession.

An example of this comes from the move that Blues won an early free-kick. Heggebo has stepped onto Klarer, so Price has positioned himself between Solid and Neumann while Mowatt has jumped to join Molumby, leaving almost everybody marked besides Patrick Roberts out on the right.

How West Brom wanted to build was down the left, looking to use Taylor, Styles and Mowatt as the out and feed Jimoh-Aloba. Both Iwata and Osayi-Samuel have a tendency to struggle on the inside so if they could square up and open space inside, they had a chance of moving and I suspect that was the gameplan.

Here, Jimoh-Aloba steps infield with Mowatt and Solis taken away by the runs of Styles and Mowatt. Heggebo and Wallace make moves to occupy Klarer and Wagner, Osman is tracking Imray and it opens up space for Molumby to receive in space with Ducksch being pulled back.

For Blues, I think the aim was width. We were facing opposition that lacked natural speed and power but were strong in the centre, so we wanted width. That meant looking to find Osman and Osayi-Samuel and to find them quickly with pass out wide. And from there, Roberts and Ducksch could get involved with Stansfield leading the line, but the moves needed to happen quickly. Our issue was that we didn’t move the ball quickly enough to make it happen often enough.

This came from Wagner making a quick switch out wide.

This also happened in the second half. Here, Iwata receives the ball behind his marker, steps forward and switched out to Osman on the other side.

You can also see the other option Blues looked towards here and in the first picture, looking to draw Baggies on and play Osman and Stansfield into the channel behind Taylor and Imray/Gilchrist.

Blues made a triple change and switched up. While the aim was similar – the right-back having more autonomy to move forward and work with the winger while Osman had more space on the other side – Iwata played into feet a lot more and opened up different angles for attack rather than making forward bursts.

West Brom made one additional change, bringing on Diakite to firm up the midfield. This saw Molumby move into the ‘10’ position with Price dropping to the left-wing.

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The referee

I don’t like discussing referees but there were a couple of big moments here and I figured it would be right to touch on them.

The handball. I’m still not 100% on the rules here. Ordinarily, a player handling the ball in the area after it has bounced off another body part would likely not be given. However, in this instance, the ball is crossing the line without use of the arm, so I gather there should be punishment. For me, it should be a penalty, simply because a goal has been denied by use of the arm. I’m not of the belief that Styles should be punished further as it appears to be accidental – he panics and shifts his hand away from the situation in response to the touch. I can give the referee and linesman benefit of the doubt because I’m not sure they can see it. This is the referee’s view:

Beadle and Phillips. I’m sorry to say that I think this is a penalty. The ball is whipped in, headed clear by a Blues head and Beadle absolutely wipes out Phillips, and dangerously to the point that Phillips had to go off. Beadle was brave with claims throughout and did a good job on the whole, but this an error and he’s lucky he got away with it.

The offside. It’s offside. I’m sorry. The initial contact from Gray is fine – he’s trying to keep the goalkeeper occupied. What he fails to do quickly enough is get away from the keeper and back onside. At the point that Priske connects with the header, O’Leary is still occupied by Gray. And I don’t think Gray helps himself by making a movement to duck underneath the ball. What a moment that would have been as well.

Anyway, I like to avoid bias where I can. One against us. One for us. One correct call. It happens.

Results, change and bigger challenges

The fixture list has been relatively kind of late.

Top of the league Coventry City at home, sure. Since then, League Two Cambridge United in the FA Cup, in-form but short on squad numbers Swansea City, hosting injury-hit Stoke City sandwiched between away days against almost relegated Sheffield Wednesday and second bottom Oxford United and most recently home matches against down-on-their-luck pair Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion.

Before this run of games, we were thumped at Watford. Confidence was low. Marvin Ducksch found himself having a pop at fans. Chris Davies has since opened up on that afternoon being the one from which change had to follow. And change has followed.

Nine of the 20-man squad selected that day have since left the club. Keshi Anderson, Marc Leonard and Lyndon Dykes were immediately bombed out. Willum Willumson, Alfons Sampsted, Lewis Koumas and Eiran Cashin soon followed. Elsewhere, Daniel Isichei and Menzi Mazwi have been granted loans, Alex Cochrane’s injury means he may miss the rest of the season while Jack Robinson has missed over a month.

Meanwhile, we have seen Bright Osayi-Samuel, Christoph Klarer, Tommy Doyle, Demarai Gray and Jay Stansfield return from suspension and injury while Jonathan Panzo, Kai Wagner, Jhon Solis, Carlos Vicente, Ibrahim Osman and August Priske have signed.

Only six of the 16 players that took to the field against Watford took to the field on Tuesday night.

To go through so much change – we have used 28 footballers in nine matches – and come out of it unbeaten in eight, winning five and propelling ourselves back into the top six race is unquestionably positive. The fact that we have conceded three goals in our last six and conceded a total of 1.6xG in our last five is also unquestionably positive.

However, we have to again acknowledge that the fixture list has been kind. The last month or so has felt like something of a trial run for players returning from injury, players low on confidence and players playing English football for the first time to find their feet. We’ve been able to grant a couple of players recovery time having played so much football. Each game has presented different challenges and for the most part we have come through them.

Sunday represents an opportunity to break away from the pressures of league football. Fans will no doubt come together to wish Tom Wagner well – and while I mention him, I would like to do the same and wish Wagner well during his recovery – and back the team in a way that is more in-tune with our identity as a football club, being the underdog and wanting to get at Premier League opposition.

After that, the trial run is over. We are into the final third of the Championship season and three-game weeks won’t come much tougher than in-form Norwich City (9 wins in 13) and 5^th place Millwall away from home before hosting Middlesbrough on Monday night under the lights.

We have a super-talented squad and I’ve no doubt that our depth means we will remain strong in games right until the final whistle more often than not. But last night gave us a glimpse into the kind of energy, intensity, organisation and general footballing competence we are going to run into going forward, and a lot of opponents are going to provide more of an attacking threat than we faced last night.

I’m confident that a season of Championship experience combined with what will hopefully be a similarly targeted transfer window in the summer will set up nicely to hit the ground running come next summer. We have clearly learned a lot on and off the pitch.

As for our chances this season, our quality and depth of options will give us a fighting chance. The question is how quickly this new-look Blues adapts to the rigours and intensity of Championship football as a unit to ensure that our quality and depth provides the edge we need it to, as it almost did on Tuesday night. The difference between winning and drawing those extra two matches will come down to fine margins.

I’m looking forward to seeing how we adapt.

Osayi-Samuel

We got a first proper look at Bright Osayi-Samuel for a while.

The Nigerian hasn’t started since QPR away in early December when he was hooked at half-time having been an awkward fit for a right-back-cum-central-midfield role. Before that it was Watford at home, Preston North End away, where he lasted less than an hour, and the same goes for Sheffield Wednesday at home.

There are things to like and a lot of them were featured in the various AFCON highlight clips. His pace is a tremendous asset. He likes defending down the outside in 1v1 duels. He is a powerful runner and when he takes possession on the move into space, or is able to roll his marker round the outside and drive, he is able to turn to defence into attack very quickly. I’ve compared him to Aaron Wan-Bissaka a lot in conversations about Blues and hopefully you can see what I mean when I say that.

There are also things that he needs to work on. I think he has work to do defensively when it comes reading runs inside of him or going 1v1 when a player wants to step inside of him and move towards goal. As for in possession, while he can be a real outlet, he can also find himself stuck when playing from more of a standing start and has a tendency to need to go backwards or slow our play down.

I think a lot of his struggles this season have come down to fit rather than ability. We signed him initially with the intention of following the patterns of last season, tasking the right-winger to step infield so Osayi-Samuel could hold width and drive forward similar to Ethan Laird. However, with us not having a natural inside right and the combination of Osayi-Samuel, Neumann and Iwata not being the most progressive from their roles in terms of moving the ball quickly and baiting a press, it was an awkward fit.

To my untrained eye, Osayi-Samuel is a full-back or wing-back better served for scenarios like those against Leicester or Oxford where we are forcing the opposition wider and to go around us. Also, having a need to release any pressure from the opposition by having somebody drag us forward, or receive in wide open space and drive. I’m sure we remember just how strong his performance against Ipswich was on opening day. I reckon Garry Monk would have really liked him.

However, the demand for the role this season is that our full-backs – and particularly the right-back – has to defend large space, often defend zonally or centrally and be cuter in possession when it comes to finding a route to progress play, while also making a lot of intelligent inside runs to open up space for better technicians to play. It’s almost the opposite of what Osayi-Samuel has been used to.

Osayi-Samuel has already learned the switch from winger to full-back and there are reasons to believe he can adapt and pick up a newer full-back role, to a point. I also believe he may benefit from us having players that move the ball quicker around him – how does he fare if he has Klarer and Solis or Doyle to bounce the ball off, players more confident technically under pressure?

It will be interesting to see how he develops. And also what happens when Laird returns. In the immediate future, I think the shirt is Iwata’s to lose.

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Opposition

This is the second time we’ve faced West Bromwich Albion this season and in both games, they have been excellent for an hour or so before having to somewhat see things out for the final half hour.

We’ve played them a couple of low ebbs this season but the match-up has given Baggies the remit to do what they have done best over recent years – be organised, aggressive and look for opportunities to play.

It’s easy to forget how much experience they have in their ranks. Alex Mowatt is in the top 25 for most Championship appearances ever. Jayson Molumby. Jed Wallace. Charlie Taylor. Nat Phillips. Callum Styles. Big experience at this level and while they have their limitations, they have also remained at this level for a reason. Meanwhile the front two of Aune Heggebo – who Davies openly acknowledged when discussing the kind of striker we have lacked – and Isaac Price are very talented young lads. This is not a squad that should be 19^th and it appears that they have used games against us and Stoke to find their feet again.

They have deficiencies. They lack real speed and lack progression from the back – what’s that like? - and they struggled to improve the side using the bench. But I think what we saw last night was a side giving absolutely everything and earning their fortune through that.

As an example, I watched them play Leicester in the game that got Mason the sack. They have seven players in line with the six-yard box as they absolutely crumbled at the death. Here, in the 95^th minute, their defenders got off the front post quickly enough to ensure Gray was offside when impeding the goalkeeper. You earn your luck. Unfortunately for us, they earned it against us.

Next up: Leeds United (h)

A break from league action and after a back issue left me unable to head to the last two home games, I’m hoping to see this one in the flesh.

I’m sure there will be temptation to rotate at the end of a three-game week but it’s Premier League opposition, it’s a cup game, we get the extra day’s rest and knowing the ambitions of Davies and Wagner, combined with it being live on TV, I think we go strong.

Iwata returns and I assume that will be at right-back with Doyle replacing the injured Paik in midfield. I do have two thoughts here. First, does Davies opt for extra physicality and put Iwata in the middle with Solis and leave Osayi-Samuel at right-back? Another is Doyle starting put taking his position as the defensive midfielder back with Solis stepping into Paik’s role. Elsewhere, I’m going to assume Vicente replaces Roberts on the right because speed on the counter is likely to be important. And I’m thinking that Priske may get a first start, though I can’t decide whether that is for Stansfield or Ducksch.

Whatever the selection, I’m confident it will be a strong one and the aim will be to cause an upset.

KRO.

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Blues took an early lead through Ibrahim Osman but Abdul Fatawu responded with an electric effort. Bobby Reid was sent off for the visitors and it paved the way for a controlled home display as Stansfield secured the points.

Chris Davies made one change from the side that beat Oxford United last time out, big money addition Carlos Vicente replacing Patrick Roberts in the XI. Jonathan Panzo and Briar Bateman entered the squad for the first time with Menzi Mazwi and Scott Wright moving out on deadline day.

Davies’ side started the stronger and were ahead within three minutes. Leicester played from left to right but Ricardo Pereira seemed unsure what action to take next, allowing Osman to steal the ball and finishing underneath Asmir Begovic 1v1.

Blues failed to exert their dominance, making a number of needless errors. James Beadle had to be sharp after errant play from the back while Fatawu couldn’t direct an overhead kick on target. He wouldn’t be denied a few minutes later from a similar position, Stephy Mavididi’s cross being headed out by Paik to the winger who took one touch and rifled home on the half volley

The hosts responded well. Both Stansfield and Tomoki Iwata were denied by defensive blocks after set-pieces fell their way and another set-piece looked to have given Blues the lead but Phil Neumann was adjudged to be offside.

Blues’ best chance came when Osman, Marvin Ducksch and Stansfield linked up to find Vicente at the back post, the winger denied point blank before seeing his next effort deflect wide for a corner that Ducksch couldn’t head on target with any power. At the other end, Jamaal Lascelles headed wide at the near post.

Already on top, things got better for Blues when Bobby Reid was sent off. Osman had once again reached a loose ball on the left and as he went to play backwards, Reid slid in strongly with his studs going through the ankle of the Blues winger.

The one-sided game continued. Stansfield and Ducksch had two efforts apiece but couldn’t trouble Begovic. Right at the end of the first half, Vicente showed superb control before finding Ducksch with an accurate left-footed pass, the German taking his time and catching Begovic off balance only to see his shot bounce off the bar.

Leicester changed shape at half-time but it mattered little as Blues remained in control. Osman volleyed a Kai Wagner cross wide at the near post and Ducksch followed suit a few minutes later. Paik tested Begovic’s handling from distance and the Bosnian was fortunate to see the offside flag having spilled the ball and fouled Ducksch. To the experienced keeper’s credit, he reacted well to a wicked first-time Solis strike.

Davies utilised his bench with a triple change just after the hour and it worked. Blues were patient with Tommy Doyle, Bright Osayi-Samuel and Roberts down the right. The latter found Ducksch peeling off the front, took Joe Aribo with him and gave Ducksch time to take a touch, lift his head and feed Stansfield for a first-time strike that nestled into the corner.

Not much happened afterwards. Blues played with total control and minimal penetration as Leicester struggled to make it to the Blues final third. August Priske headed a corner against Iwata, Doyle blazed over and Roberts hit the sidenetting as the clock turned to 90.

Blues are now two points off the top six.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Neumann (Osayi-Samuel 62) Klarer Wagner; Solis (Doyle 62) Paik; Vicente (Roberts 62) Ducksch Osman; Stansfield (Priske 75). Unused: Allsop; Panzo Fujimoto Bateman Kyogo.

Leicester: Begovic; Pereira Lascelles (Aluko 71) Nelson Thomas; Skipp Aribo (Richards 77); Fatawu (Mukasa 77) Reid Mavididi (Winks 46); Daka (Ayew 77). Unused: Stolarczyk; Kristiansen Page Monga.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 shapes here.

Leicester’s game plan was designed to create space for the wide men or run in behind for the striker. This meant seeing a full-back usually step into a central position to open space out wide while the other showed as an inside full-back to play the ball across. Skipp had license to step into midfield and join the defence while Aribo and Reid both operated higher. This also allowed them to go longer when the full-back received, particularly Thomas on the left, who would play over Mavididi and Iwata in order to find Daka up against Neumann in the channel.

In the image below, you can see Bobby Reid (AM) has joined Patson Daka (ST) in attack to occupy the two centre-backs while Solis and Paik are marking Ricardo Pereira (RB) and Joe Aribo (CM). Meanwhile our front two have dropped onto Oliver Skipp (CM) with Osman ready to support to the attack when the ball goes backwards.

Yes, Blues were relatively comfortable sitting off and waiting for their opportunity to press rather than engaging in a high press from the off. Osman and Vicente would swing inside and outside depending on where Leicester had possession and which players joined the back three.

For Blues, it was all about being brave, baiting the press and moving quickly.

Leicester were quick to engage and went largely with a full press. They would cut off space centrally and look to spring wide as a unit with the defence on the front foot and looking to close space. Similar to how we (and most clubs) often do it.

Daka would step on first, usually from a slightly left-central position to close Neumann with Reid and Aribo on the midfield. Reid and Fatawu were then tasked with stepping on to Klarer and Wagner once the ball moved that way with Daka cutting off the pass across and Mavididi ready to close Neumann if the ball moved that way. Skipp would step on once Reid went. So Blues had to be quick to bait and beat the press.

The route out for much of the game was Klarer, Wagner and Paik, the trio most comfortable in possession and able to find the passes into Osman and Ducksch. From there, it was about receiving, playing and keeping possession in order to spring into available space. Blues tended to rush things a little whcih allowed Leicester back into the game but when we got it right, we were able to spring quickly.

After the red card, Leicester moved to a 4-4-1 shape and Blues looked to get more involved centrally.

At half-time, Leicester moved to a 4-3-2 with Winks at the base, Aribo and Skipp either side of him and Fatawu joining Daka in attack.

Blues looked to go wide and step inside from that point, becoming more of a 2-3-5 with Vicente and Osman receiving, the full-backs joining quickly and Ducksch able to play higher up next to Stansfield, waiting for moments to drop off into space and let Stansfield make incisive runs.

Davies made a triple change around the hour mark. Iwata moved to centre-back with Osayi-Samuel going to right-back. Roberts and Doyle were straight swaps for Solis and Roberts. It became more 3-2-5 but with Iwata and Wagner having license to go and support on either side, creating overloads and enabling Ducksch to drop into space. Control, control, control.

And so it proved with the winner.

Iwata and Klarer are high. Fatawu and Daka (STs) have been dragged back by Doyle and Paik. Aribo (LCM) is with Roberts while Winks (DM) is marking Stansfield. Ducksch is now able to drop off because everybody is occupied and with forward runners around him, he is able to spot Stansfield for the finish.

Leicester changed once more, going more 4-2-3 for the final 10 or so minutes in an attempt to rescue the game. This saw Richards and Mukasa wide of Ayew. However, Blues were in such control that Leicester managed a measly six touches inside our final third after our winner.

Goal conceded

We’ll have a look. It’s another set-piece, frustratingly.

We start here. Vicente is with Mavididi and the throw. Stansfield and Osman are on the edge with Ducksch and Paik having responsibility to mark on the penalty spot. Solis is marking the player expected to run off the touchline while Wagner and Neumann are marking on the six-yard line, leaving Iwata and Klarer free at the near post to attack the ball.

It’s generally a case of reaction times.

Mavididi makes the move and Vicente and Iwata both read that Thomas is going to throw there. Iwata steps out and tells Vicente to watch Thomas, allowing him to take responsibility for Mavididi. He just doesn’t get there quick enough.

From there, I’m not sure Paik does too much wrong. In hindsight, he could head further wide but he is defending the back post under pressure and does well to arch his neck and get clean contact with the header away from goal. Osman gets caught ball-watching a little bit but I think his intentions are an attempt to read what is likely to be a weak header out under pressure and looking to win the ball first, only to be caught out by Paik heading cleanly.

As for Fatawu, the control and strike are just ridiculous. Premier League quality.

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Options, options, options

Blues are losing 1-0. Our opposition are down to 10 men.

We make four substitutions. Demarai Gray gets injured and Lewis Koumas replaces him. Eiran Cashin and Marvin Ducksch come off just before the hour with Alfons Sampsted and Kyogo Furuhashi replacing them. Koumas has played so poorly that he is replaced by Willum Willumson while Lyndon Dykes replaces Marc Leonard. We end the game:

Beadle

Sampsted Klarer Robinson

Roberts Willumson Iwata Paik Stansfield

Kyogo Dykes

We spend the remainder of the game pumping the ball forward and the above is technically false because Klarer is sent off for a wild challenge before the final whistle. Six of that squad have since gone.

Fast forward a month and a half and we are drawing 1-1 at home to Leicester City.

We make four substitutions again. Osayi-Samuel, Doyle and Roberts replace Neumann (enforced through injury), Solis and Vicente. Priske later replaces Stansfield. We wind up in a 4-2-3-1 cum 3-2-5 shape:

Beadle

Osayi-Samuel Iwata Klarer Wagner

Doyle Paik

Roberts Ducksch Osman

Priske

We still have Laird and Gray to return. We left Kyogo, Fujimoto and Panzo on the bench. Boy is it good to have options.

Marvin Ducksch

Marvin Ducksch is a very unique footballer.

At times I’ve found myself comparing him - stylistically, not in terms of outright ability - to Christophe Dugarry, Dele Alli or Dennis Bergkamp. At others, he frustrates the life out of me and I wonder what else we have available.

He has a real issue. For a 31-year-old that stands at 6”2 and has the look of a guy that holds snakes and swords at home, he looks petrified of contact. Everything has to be first touch if he is playing with his back to goal. I would love to see him learn how to take a touch, take contact and win a free-kick, or hold the ball, let bodies run beyond him and give it back to his full-back just to calm things down.

And yet, the risk with which he plays is a hugely important part of our game. The first-time flicks / passes, his ability to find the extra pass or link on the edge of the box to open space. His assist today was surprisingly his first of the season and he now has 9 goal contributions in 15.7 90’s across all comps, less than one in two.

At times, he’s anonymous. At times, he’s a beautiful watch. I guess we’re going to have to take the rough with the smooth and hopefully it all works out.

Stansfield and the left-hand side

A familiar pattern keeps occurring. Osman on the left finding the pass for Ducksch dropping off the front. The centre-back is drawn towards Ducksch, Stansfield runs in behind him and... he takes a touch before trying to finish on a 180 turn that is usually blocked.

Stanno isn’t high on confidence right now. He needs one that feels natural to him. Lo and behold, the substitutions open avenues down the right, Ducksch drops off and feeds the little pass. Stansfield reads it, times the run perfectly and bang, right foot, first time, back of the net.

That is the bread and butter for Stansfield. He feels reminiscent of Che Adams at times in that sense, always wanting the ball down the side of the centre-back so he can finish with a snapshot, particularly on his right.

The challenge for Stansfield now is surely to work on doing the same down the left. It won’t be as natural to him but so much of our play likely to come down the left with Klarer (or Panzo/Robinson), Paik, Wagner and Osman/Gray out there, it’s more likely that Ducksch will be finding left-central pockets than right-central pockets and Stansfield is going to be marking a number of sharp runs in behind the right-sided centre-back towards his left-side.

Whether it is using his body better to open space for a first-time left-footed shot or showing the sort of composure that created a glorious chance for Vicente on his home debut, Stansfield being more confident on his left could marginally increase our goal return.

Given his application and attitude to improving, I’ve no doubt that it will come.

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Opposition

As the game kicked off, I made a comment about not understanding why Leicester struggle given the ability they possess. How much did I learn today? Probably not enough given they spent an hour with 10 men.

Yet the first half hour did say plenty. It’s not a lack of ability but there is a lack of intensity in how they go about things and it’s the sort of thing you can’t get away with at this level. Players not going together, a lack of forward runs and taking the easier route out with and without the ball. And as the game wore on with ten, they just never got near us.

Fatawu had one moment and took it. Pereira woke up after half hour and decided to try against Osman, doing quite well thereon. Daka is pants. Lascelles won everything in the air. Begovic is chaos.

Next up: West Bromwich Albion (h)

A fascinating match-up as in-form Blues face down on their luck Albion and for the first time in what feels like a long, long time, we are the big dogs and firm favourites to beat our West Midlands rivals.

I’m not expecting much change to the XI, barring the likely enforced change of Phil Neumann being replaced by Jonathan Panzo. I don’t see Iwata’s move to centre-back Saturday being anything more than us looking to add a more attacking option against ten-man opposition. Maybe Roberts for Vicente, but we’ll see.

Victory would make it 11 unbeaten at home, eight unbeaten in all competitions and propel us further into the play-offs with the vibes being strong ahead of the FA Cup tie with Leeds United on Sunday.

KRO.

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An own goal gave Blues a first-half lead before Marvin Ducksch doubled the scoreline. James Beadle made a fine stop towards the end to give Chris Davies’ side consecutive 2-0 away wins.

Davies made one change to his starting XI, bringing Jhon Solis into the XI in place of Tommy Doyle, who was joined on the bench by new signing Carlos Vicente. Willum Willumson dropped out of the squad amid continued transfer speculation.

It was a dicey start for Blues as Oxford found early routes in behind the Blues backline. Tomoki Iwata denied Stanley Mills at the last before Myles Peart-Harris fired one across the goal mouth and miscued an effort all within the first five minutes.

Blues killed the flow of the game from that point on, getting hold of the ball and playing their game as they adjusted to a bobbly pitch and a central block for Oxford.

The outball was Ibrahim Osman and it was his excellent work that led to the opener, latching onto a pass down the channel that ended with him being taken out. Paik Seung-Ho cheekily stole a couple of yards for the free-kick and whipped it towards goal, Jamie Cumming’s parry bouncing off team-mate Peart-Harris to give Blues the lead.

Blues were in control thereon. Jay Stansfield had a shot blocked, Ducksch saw an effort blocked, Iwata blazed over and Christoph Klarer leapt highest from a corner. At the other end, Cameron Brannagan and Stanley Mills couldn’t sufficiently test Beadle while Paik’s nice set up ended with a skewed volley.

It should have 2-0 within a couple of minutes of the second half. Brilliant work from Solis and Ducksch set Stansfield away behind Davies but he chose to tee up Osman rather than shoot himself with Brodie Spencer producing a superb last-ditch block. And we came close again with another swift move led by Osman, who found Roberts in acres of space only for the resulting effort to be blocked.

It was 2-0 soon, however. Kai Wagner produced an excellent challenge on the left before being sent away down the left by Ducksch. His cross found August Priske who dug out a pass to Vicente. Vicente showed composure to roll the ball behind him for Ducksch who finished first time.

Blues shut up shop thereon, perhaps owing to the number of changes made with various players finding their feet as Oxford committed forward. Though Sean Long had headed a corner over at the near post, it wasn’t until the final couple of minutes that Oxford really pushed.

Beadle made a superb stop low down after a quick throw saw Will Lankshear find fellow substitute Ole Romeny. Ex-Blue Pryzemslaw Placheta then found Romeny with a cross that Beadle got down to stop and Brannagan shot wide a minute later.

Priske almost wrapped things up at the death after Ben Davies couldn’t cut out a clearance but Jamie Cumming did well to read his near post shot.

Blues make it six unbeaten and remain within five points of a play-off spot.

Lineups

Oxford United: Cumming; Long Davies Brown; Spencer McDonnell (Konak 46) Brannagan Phillips (Placheta 55); Peart-Harris Harris (Lankshear 55) Mills (Romeny 65) Unused: Ingram; Helik Leigh Vaulks Missanga.

Blues: Beadle; Iwata (Osayi-Samuel 65) Neumann Klarer Wagner; Solis Paik; Roberts (Vicente 59) Ducksch (Doyle 87) Osman (Wright 87); Stansfield (Priske 59). Unused: Allsop; Mazwi Fujimoto Kyogo.

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Tactics

Blues lined up in their usual 4-2-3-1 with Oxford starting out 3-4-3.

Oxford generally moved towards a 4-2-3-1 in possession, popping Long (RCB) and Davies (LCB) either side of the goalkeeper with Spencer (RWB) and Brown (LCB) in full-back positions. This enabled Phillips (LWB) to move higher with Peart-Harris (RAM) on the other side and Mills (LAM) just off Harris (ST) in attack.

Blues went man-for-man for the most part. The player wide on the other flank was left with Paik often the spare. Roberts and Osman would join Stansfield in closing the front three with Ducksch and Solis ahead of Paik in midfield. The full-back on either side would close the winger if the ball was on their flank and would otherwise tuck in to leave us 3v3 at the back with Paik just in front. On the rare occasion Oxford escaped our press and got into the final third, we would step into a classic 4-4-1-1 shape and condense space.

Oxford were 5-2-3 defensively. Their front three were up against our back three with one central midfielder usually pushing on to support the striker and the other sitting close by. In terms of the defence, as shown in the image below, one would step up at a time to watch whichever Blues forward dropped off meaning the other four should fall in line and close off the gaps. This included the wing-backs being asked to close the full-back if the opportunity was on to really pick off Blues.

To beat this, as also shown in the image below, Blues tended to drop Solis in alongside Klarer, pushing Neumann and Wagner wider and looking to both stretch Oxford in order to create a bit of space centrally and also to enable attacks out wide. We wanted to draw Oxford on enough to find the longer pass and exploit whichever space was left.

In this instance, Solis found Wagner directly rather than using Klarer first and it worked out well because Sean Long (RCB, but here at RWB) stepped up to try and close Wagner before quickly realising it was the wrong action while Ducksch has dropped meaning Spencer (RWB, but here at RCB) is ahead of the defensive line. It opens space for Wagner to find Osman in behind and led to the free-kick for the opener.

Oxford made a tactical change at half-time, moving towards a 4-2-3-1 shape that became 4-1-4-1 out of possession. Konak was allowed to go and push on with Mills while Peart-Harris and Phillips played wide. Early second half substitutions changed this with Peart-Harris moving central to allow Romeny and Placheta to be the wide men while Lankshear led the line.

It did work. They effectively went man-for-man and tried to stop Blues playing with a more aggressive approach against our defence. However, Blues held firm and took their moments when they arrived, able to find more space either side of Brannagan or out on the touchline to get forward players involved. And so when Blues could find the pass, as we did for the second, it drew defenders out of shape to exploit.

In the image below, you can see Ducksch is being marked by Long, the CB, with Priske and Vicente joining Wagner on the last line of defence.

It became a game of win your individual battles and we did that for the most part, particularly in defensive areas. It was only across the final five minutes or so that we began to suffer which made sense given we had Wright, Doyle, Priske and Vicente across the front, all relatively new or naturally not as physical.

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A comfortable away performance

For the first time this season, Birmingham City did the following away from home:

• Scored a first half goal

• Scored a second half goal

• Kept a clean sheet

• Played with control

And yes, we were playing against a side 23^rd in the league table here. We have a better football team. We have better options off the bench. Our team costs an awful lot more. It was a result that was expected by most of our fans.

But we haven’t done things the easy way on the road. We left it late against Sheffield Wednesday. We left it late against Blackburn Rovers. We weren’t in control against Preston North End. We had to come from behind against West Bromwich Albion and Wrexham and Swansea City. We conceded twice against Cambridge United. We have picked up a measly five points away from home against the current top 17 in 12 matches.

Here, we rode the first few minutes before taking control, having two-thirds of the ball and between minutes 5 and 87 giving up just four shots on our goal. We kept the ball, we remained patient, we made use of the openings we created and made use of our outlets with Osman in particular able to speed up the attack in the final third.

We are going to face tougher tests but we should take the positives from what was our most comfortable away performance of the season and take solace in us being unbeaten on the road in four. There are still points to gain away from St.Andrews as we look to push ourselves ahead of others in the race for the top six and this helped provide reason to believe we can do it.

Our new midfield

Jhon Solis has made a decent impression in his two substitute appearances, his sheer size and power enough to convince fans that we have found a missing piece to the puzzle. That feeling has grown following his first start in Oxford.

Sitting at the base of midfield in place of Tommy Doyle, Solis’ physical presence was a clear benefit as he covered ground across central areas and gave Blues real presence in the defensive area of the pitch. But it was his confidence in possession that stood out – only Klarer and Wagner had more touches and attempted more passes while his 88% pass success while playing on this pitch was impressive.

It also felt like Paik was more comfortable too, having to do a little less of the rough and tumble and able to spend more time in possession doing what he does, keeping opponents on strings, always being available in possession and moving forward to affect the game.

There will be tougher challenges and Solis is clearly still learning. Can he perform so strongly when under more pressure from the opposition and what happens when he meets his match physically?

But again, this was a real positive to take from a good afternoon.

Vicente gets an assist

Another positive. We got see our new man, Carlos Vicente, in action.

With his ginger hair and direct style, he doesn’t look or feel particularly Spanish but it matters little. His directness was a positive off the bench, showcasing his speed in an attempt to drag Blues up the pitch later in the game with a couple of excellent runs stopped at the last.

His assist was lovely. A lesser player probably shoots from the position shown below but Vicente was clever, rolling the ball back for Ducksch to finish calmly.

There is plenty of debate at the moment about what our front four should now look like for both for our next game and longer term. I’m of the mind that we need to see a little more from the new lads before we jump into “he has to start” territory. However, the early evidence with Osman, Priske and Vicente is that it shouldn’t really matter who starts, we should have enough both from the start and off the bench to be a threat throughout the 90, whether controlling things or having to work on the break.

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Opposition

I’m weary that I’ve perhaps been a tad harsh on Oxford purely because I’m looking at this from a Blues perspective and the narrative from the Blues side of things. They are where they are in the table, we have big ambitions and the expectation was to win this match.

In general, I think we saw both why Oxford have been able to put together a small run of form under Matt Bloomfield since his arrival and also why they are sitting in the relegation zone. They are organised, they had a clear idea of how they wanted to hurt Blues, looking to get players spinning from in to out to get behind our full-backs then get into the box. I thought their half-time tactical change was clever too and we had to work things out under more pressure.

They are where they are in the food chain and lack the quality to really hurt teams, something Rowett found to his cost. While they have a couple of players with presence, I do feel like they lack natural speed and power throughout the team which perhaps made things more comfortable for us at points.

Next up: Leicester City (h)

We remain five points off the play-off places with two home games to come. We aren’t going to be in the top six but if we push ahead of a couple of the chasing pack with back-to-back wins, we set ourselves up nicely for the chase before a free hit in the FA Cup.

I’m happy to take the positives from Saturday but I’m loathe to get too excited. We still have plenty to prove against better opposition, particularly in terms of durability and knowhow. This was just our 5^th clean sheet of the season while we have conceded 2 or more in 7 of 12 matches against the top 17 away from home. There is work to be done.

I’m tempted to say we go into Leicester unchanged barring any enforced changes or the signing of a top centre-half. Davies said post-match that he believes Iwata will be okay. I’m not expecting to see any of the injured lads back which means the debate will mostly be whether Priske or Vicente start ahead of Roberts and Stansfield. I think we’ll hold them back.

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Blues grew into the game and took a first-half lead through Tomoki Iwata but a Phil Neumann own goal ensured the points were shared.

Chris Davies made one change to the starting XI that beat Sheffield Wednesday in midweek, Ibrahim Osman making his debut in place of Lewis Koumas, who has now departed back to Liverpool. Bright Osayi-Samuel and August Priske stepped into the squad in place of Alfons Sampsted, who has joined Go Ahead Eagles, and youngster Daniel Isichei.

The early goings were fairly even with the left-wingers for both sides having the better of things. Bae Jun-Ho did well to step inside only to see his effort blocked by Neumann before Osman first forced a foul that led to Tommy Doyle teeing up Paik Seung-Ho and later shot tamely at Tommy Simkin.

Stoke were beginning to take hold and had three big chances in quick succession. The first was when Million Manhoef stepped into the area and forced Beadle into a stop low down. A teasing right-wing cross saw Neumann head clear before Beadle could punch it, allowing Tomas Rigo to push the ball against the post with the net empty. Tatsuki Seko then stepped forward and whipped the ball narrowly the wrong side of the post.

This sparked Blues into life and chances followed. First, more good work from Osman led to a free-kick that Doyle whipped against the frame of the goal. Iwata found the run of Jay Stansfield put he couldn’t finish under pressure. The pair switched roles from Doyle’s free-kick but Marvin Ducksch’s foul and Iwata’s offside position meant the goal was disallowed.

With a couple of minutes left to play until half-time, the same combination gave Blues the lead from another set-piece. This time it was a corner curled deep to the back post where Stansfield was unmarked and headed back across for the head of Iwata.

Blues could have made it two before half-time after stealing possession but Osman couldn’t mark his debut with a goal after being played through by Ducksch.

Blues started the second half as they finished the first, on the front foot and having chances. Paik found Osman, who drove into the box and crossed with Stansfield’s effort blocked. An error playing out led to an Osman chance that he fluffed and he would volley over a couple of minutes later. Around the hour mark, a set-piece almost rebounded goalwards off Neumann and an excellent Roberts break couldn’t be finished by Stansfield.

Blues’ inability to take their chances proved costly in the most frustrating of ways. Substitute Aaron Cresswell delivered a corner to the near post that hit the side of Neumann, turned away from goal, and landed in the net.

Two more corners caused chaos. The first saw Ducksch unable to find the target as the ball bounced his way while at the other end, Steven N’Zonzi narrowly missed the target with a near post header. The final chance fell for new man Priske, but he couldn’t get the ball out of his feet quickly enough to cause Simkin an issue.

Blues are unbeaten in five.

Lineups

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Neumann Klarer Wagner; Doyle (Solis 57) Paik; Roberts (Wright 92) Ducksch (Kyogo 81) Osman (Priske 57); Stansfield. Unused: Allsop; Osayi-Samuel Mazwi Fujimoto Willumson.

Stoke City: Simkin; Thomas Phillips Talovierov Bocat (Cresswell 68); Seko Nzonzi; Manhoef Rigo (Pearson 89) Bae (Fawumni 68); Cisse. Unused: Fielding; Agina Dixon Griffin Smith Curley.

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Tactics

Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 shapes here and the gameplans were fairly similar both in and out of possession.

In possession, both sides wanted to play and draw the other on, which enabled them to play forward into space or find a spare man inside, while always looking for the outball on the wing to speed up the attack.

For Stoke, this largely meant allowing Manhoef (RW) to drift infield, or to have Cisse (ST) dropping off to let either Bae (LW) or Rigo (AM) to run into the space behind. Blues had to be brave defensively to step out and generally failed to do this with Doyle not always providing the most forceful screen either.

For Blues, this was fairly fluid with both wingers have different opportunities to collect out wide while the other drifted, the full-back on either side then tasked in getting up in support of the winger to provide an option out wide.

Out of possession, things were relatively basic. It was 4-2-3-1 with both sides relatively happy to drop off the front and force the ball whichever side they wanted. Blues preferred to force the ball towards the right-footed LCB Maksym Talovierov with Stansfield the one to step out. Stoke preferred to force the ball to RCB Phil Neumann. For both sides, the aim was to push one striker one, push a CM forward and have the winger from the opposite side step infield and join in, forcing the opposition long, backwards or into a mistake. Generally, Stoke did this job better than Blues.

In terms of why the game played out the way it did, I think there are two things at play.

During the first portion of the game, Blues were pressed high and well by Stoke and lacked the outball through both not moving the ball quickly enough and also failing to make the ball stick up top. Also, we were lacking aggression in our actions which allowed Stoke to always have an outball.

After this, Blues began to make the ball stick better. A lot of this was down to Blues getting Klarer and Paik more involved, both players more comfortable under pressure and able to ride a challenge. Paik was particularly strong in this aspect and his play into either Wagner or Doyle, the latter often a way of Blues breaking out of the back with a quick pass out wide to either Roberts or Iwata, the ball beginning to stick out there. And through that work, we started to work the ball out to the other side where Osman was available and a threat. Meanwhile out of possession, we began to show that aggression, win more duels and read things quicker. Iwata in particular got very tight to Bae and held things up so team-mates could get across in support.

There were two positional changes, one from each side. First, Priske replaced Osman with Stansfield moving to the left and Priske up top. Second, Fawunmi replaced Bae with Manhoef moving to the left so Fawumni could set up on the right.

The game became bitty from this point and I think it said more about Blues’ general lack of a consistent outball between the lines and tiring legs out wide, while Stoke became happier to give up possession and let us play.

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The goals

Blues 1-0 Stoke

This is the situation in the box from the corner.

Stoke have lined up similar to Blues with three spare men left to attack the ball (Phillips, Cisse and N’Zonzi) with Talovierov marking Klarer, Bae with Ducksch, I think that is Bocat with Neumann, Seko is on Iwata, trying to avoid the goalkeeper being blocked. Stansfield and Paik are left free at the back post.

We are clever. Iwata and Paik aren’t overly handsy but do enough to push Seko and N’Zonzi towards the middle of the goal, as well as denying Simkin the ability to claim. Stansfield is completely free at the back stick and Doyle finds him.

And then what works well is that N’Zonzi, Seko and Simkin are so desperate to make the ball and close the space that Stansfield can guide the ball with pace back into the six yard box. Iwata keeps holds of Seko the entire time and is strong enough to win the battle and head home.

We’re actually a pretty good outfit when it comes to attacking set-pieces. I just wish we could defend them. Speaking of…

Blues 1-1 Stoke

Bring the bigger guys on and be better from the set-pieces right? Right?

We start here (ish). Roberts at the edge of the six yard box. Ducksch on the near post. Priske and Klarer on the six yard line. Iwata, Wagner, Neumann, Paik and Solis marking. Stansfield on the edge. Beadle is allowed to be marked by a Stoke player.

What happens next is just utter crap from us and difficult to show with screenshots. I recommend watching the Stoke highlights package from here and slowing it right down:

As I see it, Roberts can’t get high enough. N’Zonzi has got across Wagner but doesn’t touch the ball. Ducksch steps forward to attack the ball but ducks out of the way. Because Ducksch goes for the ball, Priske steps backwards to let his team-mate take control. Neumann is trying to get back at his man after Iwata and his man get between them, sees the ball flying towards him and moves to try and make contact, only to put the ball past his own keeper.

If somebody takes charge at the near post as they are expected to, it doesn’t happen. So Ducksch, I’m looking at you big man.

Room for improvement but not awful

Based on the Twitter reaction, I think my belief as to where we are at the moment is different to others. Each to their own and all that.

I think we’ve seen enough from this group over the season to know what they are good at and where they need help. I don’t believe we are a group that are good when facing pressure with a lack of physicality a prime issue in our ability to defend areas near our goal, make the ball stick and be explosive on the break.

Stoke are struggling with numbers presently and were missing various first-team players. But while they had the young lad up top doing his best, the other nine on the pitch are well-versed at this level with the attack nippy, midfield solid and the two centre-backs physically strong. Not at their strongest, but functional and well organised and enough to start on the front foot before any shortcomings were worked out. We’ve been similar in recent weeks.

On the other hand, Blues’ centre-backs were able to dominate their battles against a young lad but our attack and midfield didn’t do enough of that and it gave Stoke the hope they needed. When you look at our business this window, signing a left-back, central midfielder, one (perhaps two) wingers and a striker that all possess height and / or power, this is why. We have to be able to ride pressure better.

And so we faced the same problem we’ve faced a fair amount this term. The early goings were a struggle with the ball not sticking in attack and our midfield left exposed by shortcomings around them. It was too easy for N’Zonzi (LCM) in particular to drop in and take possession in the same way it was too easy for Bannan on Tuesday and then too easy for Stoke to spin to the right and play into the free man drifting in off the right, like Tuesday. We had to be braver out of possession and when we did that, we started braver in possession. We started playing to Paik under pressure and he was able to avoid or ride a challenge before working the ball towards the right where Iwata and Roberts were available in space. The ball begins sticking and we begin creating chances.

Over the next 40-50 minutes, we weren’t necessarily dominant but we worked a good number of openings that allowed us to hurt Stoke and should have enabled us to win the game. Doyle came close with two free-kicks, we had the disallowed goal, Stansfield’s 1v1, Osman’s 1v1, Stansfield’s blocked effort after Osman’s good work, Osman after an error playing out was forced, Stansfield after Roberts’ run. The goal. Klarer, Ducksch and Neumann all had decent chances from corner deliveries. It wasn’t perfect or fluid, but we were effective. Meanwhile, from the 23^rd minute onwards, we conceded two shots on our goal.

It didn’t really happen thereon in the final third. The changes made saw us lose a bit of balance, unable to work the ball into pockets, becoming more direct rather than playing, I think Klarer’s knock affected him more than we realised as he started playing the easier option rather than baiting the press. Could we have done much different? I’m sure others will argue yes. Osman was never going to complete the 90 with the club always careful with new players and workloads. Wright clearly isn’t ready for a full return. Priske and Kyogo both want to play on the last line. Do you swap a goal threat with an attacking midfielder that is less of a goal threat in Kanya or Willumson?

We’ve got new options and I suspect Davies has an idea of what he wants to see going forward in terms of his XI but it’s also going to take a couple of weeks for the new lads to find their feet and understand their jobs. It’s perhaps fortunate that we have two weeks for Davies to get bodies on the training pitch.

The new lads

Another appearance for Solis and debuts for Osman and Priske. Let’s run through it.

Solis. A second appearance off the bench for the big Colombian and it was again easy to see what he is about. He gives us a size and a presence that we have sorely lacked across the pitch, able to cover ground quickly and step forward into the final third both through forward runs and by carrying the ball, a big difference in that deeper midfield position. I’ve referenced it previously, but I would not be surprised to see Solis take the ‘6’ position for his own in place of Doyle, enabling Davies to utilise Doyle as more of a “finisher” to do what he does best when there is more space available on the pitch and the harder work has been completed.

Osman. I got Jeremy Doku vibes from Osman. He’s quick. He’s direct. He wants to commit his man and his aim is always to find a route into the area either through playing or dribbling. His final ball is definitely going to frustrate but his ability to keep committing his man means you are always in with an opportunity of something happening – a little bit like Ethan Laird at times last season. There were moments where he switched off defensively and I suspect that Davies will be mindful of that, but Osman definitely provides a different dimension to our attack. Hopefully he wears boots instead of slippers for Oxford.

Priske. The first thing that caught my eye with Priske is that is more mobile than I expected. He covers ground quickly and I suspect Davies will really like that in terms of the press. I thought he was let down a little bit by us becoming more direct rather than being able to play through the lines, but as above, I think we lacked connectors in attack and it’s something to both learn from but also develop as we add more options. One notable aspect from his performance was the number of fouls he tried to con, going down easily and looking to the referee. He will need to learn quickly that the fouls he won abroad, he won’t win over here and needs to be stronger in those battles. Positive signs, though I do see Priske as somebody we will see more from next season than immediately.

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Opposition

As noted, Stoke were in a state of chaos in terms of availability but managed to put out a decent enough side. Thomas, Bae, Manhoef and Phillips rank in four of their most used six players this season, Seko has started 16 matches and Rigo 13. Bocat and Talovierov have been in the division through 2025, N’Zonzi is a World Cup winner and while Simkin is young, he now has over 80 career appearances to his name and is an England U21 call-up, hardly a novice. So while they weren’t at their best, and their bench provided little in the way of options, it was only the young lad Cisse that was making a huge step up, perhaps combined with the awkwardness of Thomas at right-back, albeit he played plenty of his career at wing-back. Undercooked, but Sheffield Wednesday they were not. If anything, they reminded me of us at points this season, carrying a couple but having enough about them to be competent.

I think they did what they had to. They started on the front, tried to make their physicality count early doors and then had to dig in. It wasn’t a great performance from them but they held out and I’m sure the fans are thankful to their effort they put in.

Ashley Phillips looks like a young man really growing up. Bae and Manhoef remain tidy. And though he is getting on and can’t cover the ground he used to, I don’t think N’Zonzi lost a duel he competed in over small ground and you can see why he remains an option.

Next up: Oxford United (a)

Games like this are tricky to look ahead to.

Oxford United are 23^rd in the league table and the expectation will absolutely be that we beat them. I can already see the “got to be beating teams like Oxford United” tweet. But they have a new manager, are unbeaten since the change and have only conceded once in those games. At best, this will be an awkward outing and one we will have to be patient in.

In terms of us, I’m struggling to see us making changes unless there are injuries. The only one I envisage is Solis replacing Doyle. Hopefully we will have another new body or two by the time the game comes around as we reach the end of the transfer window.

KRO.

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Blues’ struggles on the road looked set to continue as they struggled to find the killer moment but Marvin Ducksch and Kyogo Furuhashi’s late efforts secured a much-needed three points.

Chris Davies made one change from the side that drew with Swansea City at the weekend, Jay Stansfield replacing Kyogo on in the XI. Jhon Solis made a matchday squad for the first time following his move from Girona with Billy Burrell dropping out. Lewis Koumas retained his place despite the addition of Ibrahim Osman.

The first half was largely a non-event with the hosts offering little threat but Blues being sloppy both in and out of possession. Paik Seung-Ho had an early shot blocked and Stansfield couldn’t make the most of Tommy Doyle’s through ball.

Things didn’t liven up momentarily as Blues found their feet. A nice move ended with Patrick Roberts shooting at a defender, Paik read a loose ball before finding row z and clever link-up between Koumas and Ducksch from a right-wing throw allowed Stansfield to test Wednesday new man Murphy Cooper.

Blues were sloppy, however, and after various loose moments they were almost punished by the hosts only effort of the first half, Barry Bannan shooting narrowly over the top corner. At the other end, Ducksch’s weight of pass was lovely for Koumas whose first touch was excellent but the shot deflected over away from goal.

The second half started like the first and alarms were raised when Roberts was dispossessed on the right, leading to a swift counter-attack that ended with Bailey Cadamarteri slotting the ball against the far post.

That woke Davies’ side up and a flurry of chances followed. Roberts slipped in Ducksch whose struck first time at Cooper. Iwata then stepped forward and forced Cooper into a fine save with a low drive. Doyle came close twice, first with an inswinging corner and then with a deep cross that almost caught the keeper out. Kai Wagner’s teasing free-kick delivery was volleyed over the bar from four yards by Phil Neumann and a patient move ended with both Iwata and Ducksch forcing excellent saves.

But Blues weren’t really at it and Wednesday soon had their moments. Cadamarteri flicked a low cross wide, a set-piece was knocked on target, Bannan showed a rare poor touch when volleying over and Ducksch had to be sharp to block Liam Palmer’s strike.

By that point, Blues had made a double substitution and it improved them. First, Ducksch was quick to a weak right-wing cross and forced a stop before Solis had an effort blocked. Stansfield then did brilliantly to dispossess Gabriel Otegbayo only to give Kyogo a heavy pass that he subsequently failed to control.

As frustrations began to rise, Blues found their moment. Wagner delivered from the left and the cross was headed as far as Stansfield on the edge of the box. His effort was skewed but Ducksch read the play and poked the ball beyond Cooper to send the visiting faithful into celebration.

Things got better in injury time. Willum Willumson closed down teenager Cole McGhee and his pass to Cooper was read by Kyogo, who showed good feet to round the goalkeeper and slot in from a tight angle with his left foot.

This wasn’t pretty, Blues earned the three points.

Lineups

Sheffield Wednesday: Cooper; Palmer Otegbayo McGhee; Valery Heskey Bannan (Thornton 89) Johnson; Lowe (Redmond 89) Cadamarteri Ingelsson (McNeill 71). Unused: Stretch; Emery Shipston Onukwuli Moses.

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Neumann Klarer Wagner; Doyle (Solis 67) Paik; Roberts Ducksch (Willumson 91) Koumas (Kyogo 67); Stansfield (Wright 88). Unused: Allsop; Sampsted Mazwi Fujimoto Isichei.

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Tactics

This was 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3.

Blues continued with the shape they have generally adopted over recent weeks, both wingers having license to step infield with the full-backs tasked with stepping onto play rather than one staying high and wide, providing some more fluency to the attack – not that it always looked fluent here.

Wednesday generally tried to step on in more of a 5-1-2-2 shape. Ingelsson (LAM) would often join Cadamarteri (ST) in stepping on with Lowe (RAM) joined by Bannan (CM) in closing Paik and Doyle. Heskey (CM) would sit on Ducksch with Stansfield marked by two. The aim was to force the ball wide and close in, one of the two forwards stepping across to close the full-back with the rest of the team closing the space in support and looking to force an error playing back inside.

For Blues, it was all about using the central midfielders or centre-backs to play back inside and step out to the other side, or to be brave in finding the forward pass and hoping the forward under pressure would hold possession. While this was a struggle at point, particularly down the left, the amount of space available behind the Wednesday midfield allowed Blues to get regular touches in good areas.

In possession, Wednesday tended to operate in a somewhat skewed 4-2-3-1 with Valery (RWB) pushing high and Palmer (RCB) moving towards the right-back position, giving them more of a back four and two defensive midfielders in possession. This general gave Wednesday two clean outs.

The first was in deep build-up. By being brave and playing out, they were regularly able to find Bannan or Heskey free to sweep the ball out to one side having drawn Blues on. Stansfield would close both centre-backs initially with both placed to receive the ball from the keeper. The aim was then to have Ducksch and Doyle step on with either Roberts or Koumas, depending on which side the ball was played to (often the left first so Blues could force it that way) closing the centre-back and cutting the full-back option off. However, Ingelsson’s position meant Doyle had to be careful about when he could step on for fear of not being able to get back and leaving us exposed 3v3 at the back. And Koumas wasn’t readily available to close the space like Roberts, meaning we regularly saw the ball move into midfield and be swept out to Otegbayo in the RCB position.

While on the subject of the first out, it’s notable how often Stansfield would go to close the centre-back and goalkeeper when the ball was played back and would regularly point to whichever player was in the RCB position for Koumas to go and close and join with him, but Koumas was regularly late to switch on. When he did eventually step up and close, he would also switch off on the second, meaning the RCB could play to whoever was in the RB position and receive the ball back to step on without pressure.

The second out, which was often at the point that they had successfully beaten the press, was to look forward runners in the channels. With Blues’ midfield pushed on and the full-backs having responsibility to stepping onto the wing-backs, Wednesday would look to exploit the space by pinning Ingelsson and Cadamarteri up against the Blues centre-backs. This is why it remained important that Blues had the spare man at the back to avoid being overly exposed.

Blues made a second half positional change with Kyogo arriving up top while Stansfield dropped to the left-hand side. The additions of Kyogo and Solis, with Stansfield on the left, helped tighten up Blues’ press and keep Wednesday penned in more rather than enabling the breaks. It should be noted Wednesday were also tiring at this point, which helped.

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It’s a win

This was always going to be a weird game.

Opposition that are losing every week. A half empty stadium devoid of noise and energy. A real expectation of a result despite being away from home. Our own woes on the road and the lack of confidence that has come with that. There was never going to be a spark in the game to wake players up, just a training match type affair in which players would have to find that extra 5% within themselves and put the game to bed.

It was just all about getting the job done, no matter how that came about. And we did it.

This wasn’t a terrible performance. We kept Wednesday largely at bay – just the one effort first half – but it wasn’t particularly good. Too many needlessly sloppy moments, individuals lacking a willingness to carry. Stansfield clearly isn’t fit and we lacked quality down the left. The press was the bigger issue, a couple failing to carry out instructions and leaving space that shouldn’t be there.

Second half, though perhaps woken up by the Cadamarteri effort, was better. A bit sharper out of possession, more forward runs and attempts to move the ball forward. But that burned brief and energy was needed. The subs made a difference just in terms of our energy levels and eventually, we got the goal.

I can’t call this an excellent performance. But on the balance of play, we earned the win. And we got the win. That’s three wins in four, a win on the road and a first clean sheet since early November. Take the positives and move on.

Big Jhon

We got a first glimpse of Jhon Solis last night and it was encouraging.

Playing against a tiring Sheffield Wednesday outfit at a time when we had got the territory means we can’t read too much into things and judgement should be cast overtime.

However, he looks the part physically, looks like he can cover ground, looked comfortable with the ball and showed a willingness to step forward. There was a very wayward shot at goal, a couple of excellent challenges in quick succession to snuff out a counter.

I’ve also assumed he would be signed to play as a the deepest midfielder but that it may take time for him to step in. However, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he steps into the XI for Stoke.

Scott Wright

Just a word to say that it was lovely seeing Wright back.

The Scottish winger is now 28 but has less than 160 league appearances to his name due to injury. Having already spent a year or so out with both Aberdeen and Rangers, he injured his Cruciate Ligament for a third time against Reading last year. I can’t imagine dealing with the roads to recovery he has had to face during his career.

It’s unlikely he plays a big part the final months of our season, particularly with new arrivals on the way, but it’s lovely to see him back and hopefully he can keep himself fit.

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Opposition

It’s tough to talk about Sheffield Wednesday because their predicament is grim. Hopefully Chansiri is finally forced to sell up and the club can begin to move forward again.

On the pitch, it was perhaps as expected. The defence looked really short and with Bannan in midfield, there were too many open gaps for the backline to cover, leaving them exposed to a point that really could have hurt them. As for the attack, some lively moments but they look a group that is beaten up by the situation they face and confidence is low.

Ogbetayo made a couple of excellent challenges in the middle of the backline. I thought Heskey Jr. Had a decent outing on his debut, looking pretty powerful and composed for a lad of his age. Barry Bannan is Barry Bannan, a timelessly classy footballer, if somebody we are always desperate to laugh at. And the boy up top Cadamarteri certainly put himself about and looked capable of handling himself physically. Some nice spots in what is a tough situation for fans at present.

Next up: Stoke City (h)

A home game against opposition that have had a day’s less rest and are suffering an injury crisis. Win, and it’s seven points from a three-game week. This feels like a great opportunity.

Of course, things aren’t always that simple. While their goalkeeper and striker are raw, Stoke are still fielding an XI of players that know the level and what it takes. They remain above us in the table too. This isn’t necessarily a banker but if we are serious about our ambitions this season, it’s a chance we ought to take.

As far as team news is concerned, I assume Ibrahim Osman and August Priske are available. Lewis Koumas is probably let go while I’m sure I’ve seen Bright Osayi-Samuel could be back. I’m guessing it will be the one change – either Kyogo or Osman for Koumas – though I wouldn’t be shocked if Solis gets the nod over Doyle either.

KRO.

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The hosts opened the scoring around the 20-minute mark when Roland teed up Zan Vipotnik. However, Patrick Roberts’ second half equaliser secured a point for Chris Davies’ side.

Davies made just one change from the side that beat Cambridge United in the FA Cup with Phil Neumann replacing the injured Jack Robinson. Jay Stansfield and Scott Wright returned to the squad in place of Briar Bateman while Jhon Solis, announced on the morning of the game, was unavailable due to not having international clearance.

This proved to be an open affair early doors. Marvin Ducksch hooked one side before Ji-Sung Eom had a tame effort on target. Paik Seung-Ho was denied after connecting with a corner pull-back while Eom, whose effort was well deflected wide by Neumann, and Melker Widell, headedr from a corner, had opportunities at the other end. Lewis Koumas was set away but chose to cut back instead of finding Kyogo Furuhashi, Ducksch unable to make sufficient space and then Eom had yet another strike, this time firing over.

It was the hosts that took the lead and in true Blues fashion, it was sloppy. Having not switched on to a pressing opportunity, Cameron Burgess stabbed the ball forward. Kai Wagner tried to run the ball out of play, unaware that Roland was nearby and quick to step in. The cross was an easy one for a player of his ability and Vipotnik finished it off.

James Beadle was on hand to produce an exceptional stop to deny Goncalo Franco, tipping the effort onto the bar. Swansea were on the front foot with Neumann forced to deflect a teasing Franco cross, Ben Cabango heading down and over from a set-piece while another weak effort from Blues led to another shot fired over.

It could have been an even score at half-time, however. Koumas made the most of a fortunate bounce to tee up Roberts to fire over from the edge of the box and on the half-time whistle, Kyogo couldn’t connect with a powerfully struck Tomoki Iwata cross.

The second half started similarly to the first with Blues struggling to really find their feet while chances were going off at both ends. Ethan Galbraith’s free-kick was on target before Neumann had to deny Franco following another cheap giveaway. Wagner crossed for Kyogo who thighed the ball over the bar. Eom had a shot deflected wide and from the resulting corner, Roland smashed the bar against the woodwork. Iwata then found Ducksch on the edge of the box and he cleverly teed up Stansfield but his touch pushed him away from goal.

The arrival on Stansfield had a positive impact on Blues, however, and we were gaining more territory. That led to the equaliser with Paik finding Wagner down the left. His cross found the run of Ducksch at the near post and a clever flick found its way to Roberts just behind. His first attempt was blocked but he regained composure and smashed the second attempt in off the bar.

Koumas’ clever pass to Ducksch gave Stansfield another opportunity only for Jay Fulton to slide in at the last second and be grateful to his goalkeeper for a fine stop. Lawrence Vigouroux was then on hand to stop Tommy Doyle scoring directly from a corner kick.

The visitors did have a couple of moments of their own. A dangerous low cross from Roland deserved better before Josh Tymon found the head of Liam Cullen only for the woodwork to again come to Blues’ aid.

Koumas’ weak effort was the only effort at goal across the final ten as both sides ran out of steam. A score draw.

Lineups

Swansea City: Vigoroux; Galbraith Cabango Burgess Tymon; Franco (Ward 84) Fulton Widell (Yalcouye 68); Roland Vipotnik (Cullen 68) Eom (Inoussa 77). Unused: Fisher; Key Stamenic Cooper Wales.

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Neumann Klarer Wagner; Doyle Paik; Roberts Ducksch (Willumson 85) Koumas; Kyogo (Stansfield 57). Unused: Allsop; Sampsted Burrell Mazwi Fujimoto Wright Isichei.

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Tactics

This was 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3.

Swansea were 4-1-4-1, which often turned in 3-2-4-1 and they were fluid with regards to who picked up which positions depending on where possession was. Tymon (LB) would sometimes step infield to let the two CMs join the attack and at other times would hold width and let Eom (LW) step infield. Galbraith (RB) tended to sit with the two central defenders with Roland (RW) holding on the right. Widell (CM) would sometimes become the most attacking midfielder while at other times, that job would go to Franco (CM).

Their general preference was to draw Blues on in the press then spring longer, looking for either the big frame of Vipotnik in attack (particularly up against Neumann) or to find either Widell or Franco breaking in behind the Blues defence, especially Franco into the right-hand channel, which would draw out Klarer.

Blues matched up in usual fashion. The idea was Paik and Doyle would step onto their men with support coming on the blindside from Koumas and Roberts, the latter more ready on that front. The full-backs would then be tasked with denying the wingers with the front two dovetailing between pressing the centre-backs and watching the sitting midfielder.

Blues’ issue primarily in the press was reaction times to pressing triggers and pointing players back into areas we wanted them to go rather than where they wanted to go. Koumas, Kyogo and Ducksch struggled to lead the line on that front and it gave Swansea ample opportunity to exit and find the forward pass.

In terms of Blues’ play, we again set up in a fairly fluid 4-4-2 type of system with Koumas having license to drift infield to create more of a 4-3-3 while Roberts and Wagner tended to hold width, Iwata joining when the opportunity arise.

Swansea generally moved between a 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1 when pressing, waiting for the opportunity to push two midfielders forward and really put on the press while Vipotnik cut off angles. When Blues had better territory, they would swing into a 5-3-2 shape with wingers on both sides dropping back in while the other supported in the centre of midfield.

What became apparent during the second half was that Roberts spent a lot more time floating into central midfield positions, creating more of a 4-3-3 shape with both full-backs providing width and the other three forwards closer together. This enabled Blues to get more dominance in the centre of the pitch and also creating more avenues for Ducksch to drop off into little pockets and link, particularly looking to find those little passes into Stansfield down the sides of the centre-backs.

Swansea made a late change with Joel Ward coming on at right-back while Ethan Galbraith moved from right-back to central midfield.

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Goals

Swansea 1-0 Blues

We start here. An attack has broke down and Swansea are making their way back into shape as Blues step out.

In general, I think it comes back to a couple of players switching off.

For starters, the image below shows the single point that Kyogo stops walking. He closes the gap quickly to his credit, which forces Burgess to clear, but you wonder how much quicker he could have made the loose ball had he been on his toes and ready for the opportunity rather than going from a standing start.

Meanwhile, Wagner has jogged out to cut the pass off out wide, which is fine. But he also switches off, perhaps ball-watching as he walks back inside the pitch. That’s without considering the generally, dare I say infuriatingly, lazy action of waiting for the ball rather than coming towards it. A big learning curve.

From that moment, we are cooked.

Klarer, to his credit, reads the situation before Ronald even touches the ball and does his best to close the angle off. Iwata is the next to react from the far side before Neumann does, and Neumann is about three yards behind Klarer when he starts sprinting. I don’t think Neumann is ever getting back in time but the reaction times to the situation were noticeable.

Swansea 1-1 Blues

Swansea have just seen Jay Fulton taken off the pitch after heading a shot clear with the top of his head, leading to physio support. As a result, Swansea have 10 players on the pitch and are in a 4-4-1 shape. This means Blues can throw an extra body forward, which we do with Iwata and Wagner both side while the front four are closer together.

And as Wagner delivers, Ronald has stepped out to close, Galbraith is looking to defend the near post and the rest of the defence are covering.

Crucially for Blues, neither Franco or Yalcouye pick up the space normally picked up by Franco on the edge of the box so when Ducksch beats Cabango to the near post, his flick finds Roberts in enough space for the winger to take a touch.

Roberts takes the touch, has a shot that is blocked but the ball pops up kindly for him to have another crack.

Take the point and move on

This feels like an important couple of weeks for Blues and the fixtures probably couldn’t be lining up at a worse time.

Swansea City away; Sheffield Wednesday away; Stoke City home; Oxford United away; Leicester City home; West Bromwich Albion home. An opportunity to pick up points and move ourselves back into a decent position with regards to the top six.

However, as we saw yesterday, a fair bit of work needs doing if we are to make it.

I discussed this in my previous report, but we are carrying players. The centre-back situation is what it has been all season. Wagner is new in and learning on the job, as shown by a couple of dicey defensive moments yesterday. As for the front three, I’ll get to that in the next section.

You can afford to hand hold one or two when you have players who make up for them but we are currently hand holding four or five and it’s problematic. We have flipped our system and made in-game changes to help with that but you’re always a moment or two away from having an issue and it’s about trying to mitigate the risk while also possessing a threat and sticking to your principles.

And so we got through yesterday. It is what it is. There was no shortage of effort and no lack of desire, we’re just not a really strong Championship outfit right now fielding 11 players that know their jobs inside out and are physically equipped to deal with it.

I’d like to think come the end of the window, we would have a squad and bench that is stronger than that of Swansea but right now, I’m not sure we do. From our side, I think Vipotnik is probably the only player (perhaps Franco or Widell too) that Davies would be readily looking at and thinking “yes, he would be lovely for our XI” but on the flip side, is Vitor Matos watching James Beadle, Tomoki Iwata, Phil Neumann, Lewis Koumas and Kyogo Furuhashi and thinking “get me them”? I’m doubtful. Probably Ducksch too, albeit that is more of a stylistic-fit than an ability-led fit.

The point isn’t to be an arse about the players we have but more that 1) this is a competitive division and we aren’t that far ahead of most and 2) depth is just as important as the starting XI and we are severely lacking in that department right now. Koumas played 90 minutes yesterday because the only senior alternative we have in terms of direct attacking play is Scott Wright, who has just returned from an ACL.

We clearly need a centre-back. Beyond that, it’s about giving Davies options to keep his reliable men fresh and turn games in his side’s favour.

Stansfield is important

Blues’ front four was lacking yesterday both in and out of possession.

I can exclude Patrick Roberts from that discussion. He scored the goal, he regularly jumped into midfield to support Doyle and Paik and actually wound up becoming the third midfielder as we looked to kick on in the second half. A strong display.

Elsewhere, we had Koumas, Kyogo and Ducksch. All three are players that need a particular type of game to thrive and none bring the best out of the others.

Let’s start with out of possession. Koumas has been given a specific task, or so it feels like. Close the RB/RCB in possession. Track him if he runs forward. I don’t know if he has been asked to support in midfield the way Roberts does but he tends not to switch onto that. Kyogo and Ducksch have the same job – close the centre-back then drop back onto the defensive midfielder when the ball moves across. Ducksch reads the play but he isn’t the quickest to cover the ground. Kyogo covers the ground quickly but isn’t quick to the trigger and switches off when it’s not his exact job. In ground duels, none of the three are effective and regularly outmuscled or outran in situations.

How about in possession? Koumas doesn’t really want to show for the ball in pockets or take bumps, preferring to see play or run in behind, and he’s ineffective when dribbling. Kyogo does not want to be involved, preferring to stay on the opposite side of play so he can sit on the blindside of defenders and time his runs for the final action. Ducksch wants the ball and to drift into pockets but he wants to be involved once play has developed rather than getting involved beforehand and needs bodies close and around him in order to do the intelligent thing he is capable of.

What I’m getting at is that while these players have their qualities and quirks and can be useful, they need things to be set up in a way that suits them. Stansfield would probably like similar treatment but it’s his selflessness, adaptability, concentration levels and understanding of triggers that make him so important to our attack.

He arrived in this game for Kyogo just before the hour and while Kyogo hadn’t necessarily done much wrong, Stansfield gave us a different feel. When Koumas had forced a pass back inside, Stansfield was quick and ready to read the next pass before it was made which helped the rest of the team step up into better positions. For the chance that Fulton took off his toes, he read the play quickly and darted into open space to give Koumas the option and showed for the ball. He occupied Burgess and enabled Ducksch to have more opportunity to drop off while Koumas sat between Cabango and Galbraith.

When I talk about carrying players, I don’t necessarily mean that the players involved are awful footballers. They just need a bit of hand holding or the game played in a certain way that benefits them. You can generally allow them to do that when you have selfless, adaptable footballers around them and in Iwata, Klarer, Stansfield, Paik, Roberts and perhaps Gray and Doyle, we do have them. It would be lovely if we can add a couple more than give us that flexibility without diminishing what the team can offer.

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Opposition

I’ve said above, I don’t think Swansea are a particularly brilliant outfit. I think the defence is one that can definitely be gotten at with two centre-backs that don’t enjoy stepping out and full-backs that don’t enjoy defending space. The midfield is classy but not the most physically dominant and while Vipotnik is good, you should be able to force a situation where he becomes more isolated rather than being able to dominate a certain centre-back.

But they do have good players and when they get it right, or you allow them to get it right, they’re a good side able to cut you open. Ronald is a threat on the right and his delivery is excellent as he has shown in both games. Vipotnik is a real powerhouse and if you have a weaker defender, he will exploit it. Josh Tymon isn’t attractive defensively but his delivery is usually on the money. And in Franco, they have a player I’m sure most clubs would really enjoy having.

I think their squad is in the position of being a good starting spot to develop further and it’s all about whether they can kick on with their recruitment and under their new manager.

Next up: Sheffield Wednesday (a)

There aren’t many games in this league that feel like a must-win, let alone away from home, but facing a side in financial peril and on –7 points certainly feels like that.

We now face Wednesday on the road before playing Stoke City, who have a lot of injuries themselves, at home and it feels like a good opportunity to pick up seven points this week.

I anticipate the only change to the starting XI will be Stansfield for Kyogo. Hopefully Jhon Solis and dare I say one more are made available to beef the squad and hopefully get their first taste of action in English football.

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Kai Wagner gave Blues the lead with Kyogo Furuhashi making it two before half-time. Marvin Ducksch looked to have sealed the win late in the second half but a Sulley Kaikai double meant a nervy finish as Blues held out.

Chris Davies went strong for this one. Captain Christoph Klarer returned after suspension in place of Phil Neumann, who dropped to the bench, while Kyogo Furuhashi started in place of Jay Stansfield, who was absent from the squad. Eiran Cashin, departed, and Scott Wright, recovering, were also absent with Briar Bateman and Billy Burrell making the matchday squad.

Neither side truly got going during a tame first half on a pitch lacking zip due to the weather conditions. Right-back Liam Bennett had an early shot on target while Tomoki Iwata’s low cross almost found Kyogo at the near post.

The best chance of the first half looked to have fallen to Ben Knight after Blues failed to deal with a set-piece but the winger skied over. He was left to rue that chance a couple of minutes later as Wagner opened the scoring. Paik Seung-Ho’s forward pass didn’t quite reach its intended target but Ducksch was first to the loose ball and cleverly teed up Kyogo. The Japanese forward’s effort was blocked but Wagner was on hand to fire home via a deflection.

Travelling Blues fans got the moment they were craving when they witnessed Kyogo finally score for the club. Zeno Ibsen Rossi was loose with possession and the Blues number nine was on hand to steal the ball, race through on goal and finish confidently 1v1.

Kyogo almost added a second early in the second half when he latched onto a Klarer clearance only to see the ball bounce off the post. Cambridge then had a positive spell with Knight again blazing over from a promising position and James Brophy having a shot blocked.

Tommy Doyle blazed over. A cheap giveaway from Wagner presented Knight with a third chance that he was wayward with. Iwata found Lewis Koumas to head on target and Shayne Lavery did similar at the other end.

The game looked to have been sealed with 13 to play. Once again, Cambridge has opened themselves up with Rossi giving away possession. Doyle fired the ball straight to Ducksch who took one look and one touch to beat Jake Eastwood.

Things got nervy for Blues. Neumann replaced Jack Robinson and almost immediately gave a goal away, first being sold in the channel before inadvertently prodding the ball to Kaikai to finish.

It was 3-2 before the 90 minute-mark, a flurry of cheap free-kicks being given away leading to Kaikai firing home via a knock-down.

Blues moved to a 5-4-1 to see things out and though Ben Purrington headed a cross wide, they got the job done.

Blues advance.

Lineups

Cambridge United: Eastwood; Bennett Jobe Rossi Gibbons (Purrington 74); Hoddle Ball (Lavery 63); Knight Mpanzu (McLoughlin 74) Brophy (Kaikai 63); Appere. Unused: Hughes; Morrison McConnell McDougald Kachunga.

Blues: Beadle; Iwata Klarer Robinson (Neumann 75) Wagner; Doyle Paik; Roberts (Willumson 75) Ducksch Koumas (Sampsted 90); Kyogo (Fujimoto 75). Unused: Allsop; Burrell Mazwi Bateman Isichei.

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Tactics

Both sides set up in 4-2-3-1 shapes and it wasn’t a particularly complicated game tactically with both sides largely going man-for-man and leaving a spare.

In possession, Blues were fairly fluid. We tended to operate in more of a 3-1 shape playing out with Doyle joining the backline and Paik hovering just in front. This created opportunities for the full-back and winger on either side to dovetail, meaning there were occasions where Iwata and Koumas were narrow with Wagner and Roberts wide, and other occasions where Koumas and Iwata were wide with Roberts and Wagner stepping infield.

Cambridge generally operated in a 4-4-2 out of possession. Generally classic stuff, narrowing the pitch committing to individual match-ups and leaving a man spare on the opposite side. They wanted to sit off and wait for their opportunity to go, but also weren’t afraid to commit as a unit when the opportunity arose, quick to close and force Blues back or long.

The below image shows this. Doyle is receiving between the centre-backs with the two Cambridge forwards sitting off. Paik is moving back into the centre. Koumas and Iwata are narrow with Roberts and Wagner on the touchline. Cambridge have largely gone man-for-man meaning the back four are all marking up, the RW is with Wagner out of show, the LW is with Roberts while the two CMs are cutting off the forward pass through the middle.

Meanwhile here, we can see the opposite in effect. Both Wagner and Roberts are inside with Iwata and Koumas (out of shot but about to make the inside run) wider. Ducksch and Kyogo are occupying men. Doyle is again with the centre-backs with Paik in the middle.

Cambridge were pretty direct in possession. They generally worked positions to play off Appere on the side of each box, looking to get bodies close and running off him to get on seconds or counter-press if they lost possession. Their full-backs were fairly brave in stepping forward and meant they were able to create overloads out wide for deliveries or shots from the edge of the box.

As noted, Blues were largely man for man with a centre-back or full-back spare. It meant Kyogo and Ducksch pressing together, the wingers matching up against the full-backs and Paik and Doyle supporting the front two.

Cambridge went for a more classic 4-4-2 with two strikers in the second half and were also braver in their attempts to play. This did cause them some issues when they lost possession, as shown for the early second half chance for Kyogo and Ducksch’s goal. However, it did mean they matched us up in the middle of the pitch.

Davies went 5-4-1 late on to give his side the numbers advantage in those defensive areas. Iwata at RCB, Sampsted to RWB.

The goals

Blues 1-0 Cambridge

Sorry to use the same image twice, but we start here.

Paik’s pass for Koumas doesn’t make it but the header falls for Ducksch, who is free because one CM has gone to close Paik while the other is watching the middle of the pitch.

Just a moment to appreciate Ducksch’s vision here because this pass is fantastic.

Kyogo is denied by a last-ditch block. But Ben Knight has switched off his task with Wagner, who makes the loose ball and fires in.

Blues 2-0 Cambridge

Cambridge are in a full press. Knight and Ball are closing Ducksch and Wagner. Ruddock and Hoddle are up against Paik and Doyle. Jobe and Bennett are up against Koumas and Kyogo. They think they’ve got us and to be honest, they probably have.

Ducksch plays inside and Wagner has to react sharply to win his tackle before Knight can enter the box. Fortunately for us, Appere is goal side in an offside position waiting for the bounce and it means that Klarer is free to clear his lines.

The situation is ideal for Cambridge but Rossi takes a touch and isn’t set for contact, allowing Kyogo to nip in and steal the ball.

Kyogo has had a habit of snatching at things, so credit to him for keeping composure from here.

Blues 3-0 Cambridge

Before I show the goal, I just want to point this out from early in the second half.

Cambridge are trying to play out. Blues press. Jobe doesn’t tuck in and look at the space between the centre-backs here.

I mention the above because here is Cambridge playing out once more. Blues are in a full press again. Rossi clears. Look at the space between the centre-backs. And for your information, the guy near Ducksch is the defensive midfielder.

So when the clearance falls to Doyle, well...

Here is the thing. We didn’t open up Cambridge. They opened things up for us. All we did was put the pressure on to force the errors a League Two outfit are liable to make if put under pressure they’re not used to. And when those mistakes were made, we had the quality to take our opportunities. It’s the difference between high-end Championship ability and League Two football. The ability of our group isn’t in doubt.

Doyle finds Ducksch who takes one look, one touch and slots home nicely.

Blues 3-1 Cambridge

Cambridge have a throw-in inside their own half. We don’t deal with it. The defensive positions are off screen so it’s difficult to tell exactly what happens. Klarer is marking the striker but the ball is thrown inside of them both, Wagner is ahead of his man and Neumann decides not to engage with Lavery, who is free to head the ball wide.

Neumann ends up 1v1 with Appere in the channel. He keeps pace but then naively slides in and gets sent for a hot dog.

Klarer engages, which takes him away from being able to defend the near post. He nicks the ball but Neumann stands up and diverts the ball back into danger.

Elsewhere, Iwata has dropped off Kaikai in order to defend the near post, which is normally the create course of action. Doyle is with Lavery. Willumson has tracked Purrington.

It’s just messy. Neumann has arrived on the pitch and made two, perhaps three poor decisions in seconds of each other.

Blues 3-2 Cambridge

The first thing to note here is that having already given away a cheap free-kick, Neumann went ahead and gave another one. Cambridge got on the ball quickly and took another one, with Paik then giving one away.

We set up for it. Everybody has a man. The ball goes deep. Every player drops one so moves to pick up different men. Normal stuff from a free-kick.

We just switch off. Iwata ends up marking their centre-back at the back post and loses that battle because he’s half a foot smaller. And nobody picks up Kaikai.

Was it Ducksch’s job? I’m not sure. Either way. It’s crap.

Just bad, sloppy goals again. Do the basics properly.

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We’re through...

What was the main goal of yesterday? To win. To progress.

We turned up. We scored three goals for the second game running. We won a football match. That is the most important thing. Factor in Kyogo scoring a clean goal and it was a good day really.

I was frustrated come the final whistle for reasons I’ll touch on below (and have above) but we won a football match, won a football match away from home and we have to take the positives from it.

Round Four, here we come.

...but change is still needed

The positives should outweigh the criticisms/questions but it’s hard not to raise questions.

When we drew with Ipswich Town on opening day, we largely fancied that that was about the weakest we would be all season. Fast forward to January and it’s fair to say that opening day team was a bit stronger that was used here.

I’m not going to go deep on individual performances. It’s a cup game against lower league opposition and you’ve just got to get through it. Those I expected to deliver little delivered little and one or two of our more reliable players were below par. Similar issues remain and Cambridge weren’t undeserving of their late goals.

The squad is in a strange position right now. Cashin has gone. Buchanan and Wright remain in recovery after long-term absences. Dykes wants out. Leonard is absent amid transfer talk. Anderson is injured. Cochrane is injured. Laird is injured. Gray is injured. Stansfield missed out with injury. Osayi-Samuel is at AFCON. Sampsted, Willumson and Fujimoto were all on the bench here but are available to leave. Koumas could depart next week. Neumann is unfancied. Kyogo was linked to Celtic (albeit this sounds like Celtic pushed the narrative more than we allowed it).

That leaves Beadle (on loan), Allsop (can’t play two keepers), Iwata, Klarer, Robinson (a stopgap), Wagner (new, jury out), Doyle (on loan), Paik, Roberts (on loan, trying to make permanent) and Ducksch (admitted he’s still learning) available yesterday. Stansfield and Gray go back into the XI when fit. Maybe Laird.

Here are my thoughts. In Klarer, Paik and Stansfield, we have three players that can play through the centre of the pitch and lead through understanding of their roles, understanding of the roles of others and being physically and technically equipped to stand on their own two feet. Doyle has stepped up and understood his job. Roberts and Gray have stepped up but can’t do 90 minutes every game.

There are others that understand their jobs but come with limitations that are being exposed because the team as a whole isn’t equipped to support their technical or physical limitations, so they become exposed. Some get by more than others, which is why we have the XI we do.

This is why in this window, we have signed a left-back that offers physicality and final third threat. This is why we are clearly looking for a partner for Klarer. This is why we have signed a young winger that offers speed and directness. This is why we are now being linked with a massive defensive midfielder. And I don’t know how good these guys are if I’m honest, the jury is out and I don’t want to get too big on who we are signing. But at least we are looking to fix the problems we should have fixed in the summer and I just hope we are getting it right.

You’ll never get the perfect squad. Even Manchester City and Real Madrid fans will be looking at their squad thinking “we need to sign that guy”. But having had a squad and starting XI that has been so limited to playing one, maybe two different ways, it would be lovely to finish this window with a squad that gives Davies options.

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Opposition

A word for Cambridge, who will probably feel hard done by that result. Poor Ben Knight won’t have slept with those missed chances.

It struck me that while these guys are now in League Two for a reason, having the likes of Ben Purrington, Pelly Mpanzu, Dominic Ball and Elias Kachunga in your squad is a good indicator that the group has experience and has quality. Neil Harris himself has managed at a higher level and you can see that the group know what they’re doing and what they’re trying to achieve.

I can certainly see why they are sixth in League Two.

Next up: Swansea City (a)

Our next big test as we head out on the road against a Swansea City side that have changed manager since our last match-up. Mixed results so far, I’d say.

I’m assuming Stansfield will be back to take the place of Kyogo. Whether Manneh comes straight into the starting XI to replace Koumas is a question (Koumas may even be gone by that point). Beyond that, I suspect we will field the same XI with an extra body or two filling out the bench.

Given our away woes, any result is a positive one and a decent enough performance would be lovely. Here’s hoping for a good week.

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