2024 Brought Wayne, Pain & Lots to Gain: What Comes Next?
Birmingham City delivered a wonderful 30th birthday present, a relegation, lots of sell-out crowds & a record-breaking start to the season.
It’s the morning of 29th December as I open a new document. Top Gear – the proper version with Clarkson, May and Hammond – is on the tele (there really isn’t much on) and the little one has run off to play after a morning of asking me to name the colours in her book or press the buttons on her big Gabby’s Dollhouse book.
I’ve read a cracking piece by Dan Ivery discussing the club’s progress, come across some “of the year” tweets and, if I’m being honest, enjoying the fallout involving Wayne Rooney and Plymouth Argyle fans.
It means having an opportunity to jot some thoughts down about the last year or so. Between my 30th and 31st birthdays, Blues employed five managers, including caretakers and interims, suffered a long overdue relegation, broke the League One transfer record – possibly more than once – and learned how to win football matches again.
And it all starts with the bloke mentioned above, the one whose current club openly admitted to employing having ignored the data from his spell with us. How did that go?
It’s New Year’s Day and Birmingham City are travelling to Leeds United.
We know we are losing.
Despite his comments to the contrary, the fans did their best to get behind Rooney. Sure, aggro continued online but fans sung his name in the stands and got behind the team. Fans were rightly behind an ownership doing so much good work off the field and wanted this to work.
It just wasn’t. Sure, we flung out the traps every so often and looked fun going forward – the loss against Leicester City springs to mind - but we were crap. Games were chaotic and defensively we were a shambles.
But at least the team tried to attack and run forward, and fans of any club can get behind that to a point. It’s why there was such a fall out when Rooney completed reined it in at home to perennial mid-table outfit Bristol City, setting his team up to keep a clean sheet. Sure, we managed it, but it wasn’t what fans had signed up for. This was fearful football.
I was miserable about the entire thing. I was gutted about Eustace departing but still wanted to get behind Rooney for the reasons mentioned above. Why wouldn’t I want to be proven wrong? I’ve got no ego – I wasn’t impressed by the decision to sign Lukas Jutkiewicz all those years ago and love the bloke. I do my best not to write people off these days.
But we were crap v Middlesbrough, crap v Hull City, changed tact completely against Southampton and were still crap. We crapped the bed against Ipswich Town and were crap against Sunderland. We beat Sheffield Wednesday but only after being battered all first half and then we were excellent for a half against Blackburn Rovers only to concede three in 15 minutes. A draw v Rotherham United, defeat against Coventry City and even when we beat Cardiff City, I was left thinking “wow, what a crap football match”.
Leicester at home was enjoyable carnage and the question was whether we could sustain such a positive display. And we were getting somewhere against Plymouth Argyle until we had a man sent off, conceded twice, drew the game and followed it up by being crap against Stoke City on Boxing Day. Bristol City was just a crap game. And so we travelled to Leeds now more bothered by a possible relegation than an unlikely top six finish.
Rooney moved to a back three, selecting Oliver Burke *shudders* and Emmanuel Longelo at wing-back. Blues muster eight efforts at goal, none closer than 16 yards out. We’re soundly beaten and drop to 20th. We’re now far more concerned with survival than promotion. It’s been an absolute disaster.
We move to Tuesday 2nd January 2024, the day of my 30th birthday. I’ve been spoiled. And then the club decide to drop a lovely surprise gift too.
Happy 30th Ryan. Love, Tom Wagner et all xoxo
We all know what follows.
Uncle Tony quickly becomes a beloved figure having found a way to get the team playing football in a less chaotic fashion, picking up ten points from six games and earning those back-to-back home wins against Blackburn Rovers and Sunderland.
Mowbray departs due to illness – it’s fantastic to see he’s doing well after time away recovering – with his assistant Mark Venus stepping in. People in and out of the club are lacking clarity and form dips, the side picking up a single point from six matches and finding new ways to lose each matchday.
Gary Rowett returns. He picks up 11 points from his eight matches, including three wins at home in front of full capacity crowds, but draws away at Rotherham United – where the decision to play Oli Burke over Koji Miyoshi still rankles – and Huddersfield Town leave us praying to the Gods on final day. We beat Norwich City but Plymouth Argyle, Blackburn Rovers and Sheffield Wednesday also win.
Birmingham City are relegated.
I was adamant we would stay up. We were going to do our job and another side wouldn’t. Instead, all the sides at the bottom produced some unbelievable form.
Blues were 21st when Rowett arrived with 39 points and okay goal difference in comparison to those around us. We knew 11 points would mean 50 and that usually means survival. But Millwall and Queens Park Rangers collected 16, Sheffield Wednesday and Stoke City 15, Blackburn Rovers 11 and Plymouth Argyle 10. A remarkable sequence and it meant we had fallen.
And so we go down. It shouldn’t have happened, but it did.
I’ve dissected last season in depth elsewhere and even looking back seven months on, my head is in a similar place. Making the first managerial change when we did, employing the manager we chose to appoint and that impacting on a group that lacked players capable of driving standards and culture. We found ourselves overly reliant on having a manager that could provide structure, stability and leadership in lieu of it elsewhere and though Mowbray's illness was untimely given he would have comfortably kept us in the Championship, we were playing catch-up on a number of issues leading into the second half of the season.
Despite relegation, it felt like we ended the season on a positive note. Our owner had acknowledged the big mistake and stood up to be counted towards when we needed somebody to look towards, showing his face, creating affordable ticket prices and ensuring everybody could get behind the team. We won three of our final four home matches in front of a sell-out crowd and though it wouldn’t prove enough, it brought people back to the football club.
Tom Wagner, Garry Cook and almost anybody associated with Birmingham City from club staff to fans told everybody what we were going to do this season.
This was a different club to the one floundering for the last decade. The stadium was no longer a construction site. Huge developments had been made on and off the pitch. The sports science programmes and training facilities have had major upgrades. Our commercial numbers are insane. We had money to spend on footballers. We were going to recruit players capable of performing above the level. We were going to win promotion. The points record was in our sights.
As of the day this piece is being released, we:
Have spent like no other League One club in history
Have broken the League One transfer record considerably
Lead the League One table by two points with a game or two in hand on most of the division
Are currently on track to break the League One points record and match Reading's EFL record
Have qualified for the Vertu Trophy Round of 16
Have qualified for Round Four of the FA Cup
We’ve done everything we set out to do so far.
When we look back at 2024, it won’t be thought of depressingly as the year we got relegated but the year the club finally got its act together.
And it’s only the beginning.
So, what does 2025 hold in store?
If the ambition and expectation is matched, it will bring promotion – for the men and women. It will bring a first league title in 30 years for the men. It will bring another EFL Trophy final win at Wembley. It will bring early success in the Championship. It will bring more excitement in the transfer market. It will bring more commercial success. It will bring category one status for the academy. It will bring more packed out St.Andrews atmospheres. It will bring more joys than sorrows.
Making it a reality is the challenge now.
I’m in no position to speak on commercial happenings. I would love to be able to see more of the academy and women’s teams but I only have so much time in my life at the moment. I would also love to speculate on potential transfers but 1) I’m not ITK and 2) research time. Maybe magically finding more time is my challenge for 2025.
In the meantime, there has been plenty of discussion online about the men’s first-team. It’s not that people doubt we’re the best side in League One. But there have been concerns about our play raised, including:
1: Not being able escape the chasing pack
2: Inability to truly put teams away with a dominant scoreline
3: Rotation and tired legs
I get it to a point. Expectations were raised to the point that it was easy to get carried away and assume we would be this all-conquering League One outfit smashing teams left, right and centre. So defeats v Charlton Athletic and Shrewsbury Town and draws v Northampton Town, Mansfield Town, Blackpool and Stockport County weren’t welcomed, particularly the manner in how some of them played out.
I’m personally of the belief that people just need to relax a little.
As mentioned above, we’re on course for a record-breaking season. The only reason we aren’t as far as ahead as we would like is because of the challenge we face.
We are averaging more points per game than Walsall in League Two, who currently have a 10-point lead with a game in hand. The only difference is that the competition we face are more consistent than the competition Walsall are facing. We just have to focus on us, keep winning football matches and things will work out. As fun as talk of a points record is, the only focus should be on winning promotion. Get it done and move forward.
Chris Davies is adamant that he doesn’t look at the league table and I think a few our fans could do with following the same approach.
I’m actually really proud of the club, management and squad right now.
Let’s consider the following:
1: We saw almost 40 squad changes this summer
2: We have a new manager and coaching staff
3: Most of our new signings didn’t have a full pre-season
4: Most of our signings lack experience of the level and intensity
Now, none of the above can be used as an excuse. We chose to make the decisions we made and could have gone down a different route for more “guaranteed" success. It’s proven successful elsewhere – of the last 12 clubs to win promotion from League One:
Just two returned at the first time of asking (Rotherham United and Hull City)
Ten started the season with the same manager they finished the previous one with (Sunderland and Oxford United changed and won promotion via the play-offs)
The majority of players playing 75% of minutes or more were already at the club before the window. Wigan Athletic are an outlier, but most of their signings were made early and were all experienced League One players.
It means that despite our huge financial advantage and quality of player signed, we have been playing catch up as far as matching expectations is concerned. From day one of the League One campaign, we have been on a learning curve and it’s a credit to the staff and players that they have been able to continue winning football matches and earning points.
Personally, I think the EFL schedule over Christmas has been absolutely daft. I know I’m not alone in that. And where most clubs have played four games in nine days, we have played five in just under 12. We got beaten up.
Short turnarounds. Cold weather. Poorer quality of pitch. Tired legs. Tired minds. Keshi Anderson, Emil Hansson, Lee Buchanan, Krystian Bielik and Jay Stansfield all succumbed to injury. Christoph Klarer played through a hip issue and Tomoki Iwata got through around 50 minutes of his final game with an issue. Ryan Allsop had a cut above his eye and Ben Davies a bandage round his head for the final game at Wigan Athletic. Taylor Gardner-Hickman has gone from being a central midfielder that offers versatility to spending the last two games covering all attacking midfield roles.
Despite being less than impressive on the whole, we collected 11 points from those five matches. We finished the run without defeat. We conceded just one goals.
We’ve all seen teams spend big money and struggle. We’ve all seen big names go under when the going is tough. We’ve seen clubs overhaul their squads only to struggle to create on-pitch cohesion and a positive culture around the club.
There’s not just quality but a real resilience about this group and Chris Davies and his staff deserve huge credit for helping mould that. He’s brought to the group together, offered no excuses, created a style of football that is producing results while also showcasing the pragmatic side he outlined in his first interview. It feels like everybody is on the same page and the hope is that it only gets better from here.
It’s the evening of 11th January as I finish this piece.
We’ve just made seven changes for the visit of Lincoln City and beat them 2-1 thanks to an early Ayuma Yokoyama finish and a Lyndon Dykes worldie. Taylor Gardner-Hickman continued his run of playing every position on the pitch. Alfie Chang returns after over a year out injured. And Zaid Betteka made his professional debut. A very good day.
It’s Swindon Town next in the Vertu Trophy, a competition we appear to be taking seriously and the expectation will be that we beat League Two opposition. As for the league, the next few weeks will likely be our toughest of the season. We travel to Wrexham, Huddersfield Town, Peterborough United, Reading and Bolton Wanderers while hosting Rotherham United, Charlton Athletic, Leyton Orient and Wycombe Wanderers between Thursday 23rd January and Tuesday 4th March.
The picture will be much, much clearer by the end of that run and the expectation will be that we top the league and put a little bit of distance between ourselves and the rest, provided the other begin to drop points of course.
It hasn’t always been enthralling, but I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the 2024-25 campaign to date. Here’s to an incredible 2025.
KRO.
Nice piece, Ryan. Happy New Year !