All The Best, Tony. But Football Doesn't Stop.

The club announced the departure of Tony Mowbray on Monday. An ode to his work and a look ahead to an important month.

We all had an inkling that it was coming, but the news that Tony Mowbray has relinquished his position as Birmingham City manager was a blow nonetheless.

A solid if unspectacular start to the Championship season quickly derailed under the management of Wayne Rooney, who collected 10 points from 15 matches in charge.

The squad was lacking in leadership and clarity while confidence had dropped alarmingly as League One football began to look a genuine possibility.

Blues needed to make a sensible appointment and after Steve Spooner oversaw a draw with Hull City in the FA Cup, Tony Mowbray was appointed. We couldn’t have picked better.

Here was a guy that had managed over 850 matches across two decades, won two promotions, whose teams played on the front foot, whose style had evolved with the times and whose personality had Birmingham City fans in the palm of his hand almost immediately.

Eight matches later and he was passing on the torch.

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The Perfect Choice

Mowbray needed to get on top of the job quickly and he did just that.

He knew his squad wasn’t lacking for talent. What they lacked was direction, leadership, consistency and belief. He spoke of repetition in training and matches and returned to the more familiar 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 shape but with the twist of being braver in and out of possession.

When many believed that we needed a centre back and striker in January, Mowbray realised that to improve the style of football he would need midfielders. He moved Krystian Bielik to centre back, believing he would be better suited to having the game in front of him. He have Andre Dozzell responsibility at the base of midfield and found roles for Koji Miyoshi and Jordan James because of their defensive application and goal threat.

He showed an understanding of his players and did his best to educate fans. He wanted to push Juninho Bacuna and Siriki Dembele to realise their talent and show consistency. He spoke of Jay Stansfield being a real “look you in the eye” kind of lad. Ethan Laird was talked up as a potential leader. Even Mowbray was critical or constructive in his assessments, it didn’t sound like he was writing people off.

His nose for the game was evident too. The way he wanted his team to step onto Stoke City and keep playing while ahead but seeing that it wasn’t happening and adapting, doing what he needed to do to get the result. And how he knew the right time to set Bacuna and Dembele on opponents from the bench, both playing key roles in our home wins against Blackburn Rovers and Sunderland.

It wasn’t all perfect and Mowbray wasn’t about to drive us into the play-offs. There were defeats at Sheffield Wednesday and West Bromwich Albion that were frustrating thanks to the soft goals conceded and inability to take or create opportunities on the road. It showcased the amount of work that needed to be done while there was a sense that he wasn’t entirely satisfied with his attacking options.

But Blues needed an impact and got it. The team were beginning to play with style. The fans were back onside. The ground was sold out for Sunderland, a game Blues won. Fans stayed to celebrate, receiving applause from Mowbray who collected the bag of Revels launched his way from the crowd and waved goodbye.

The announcement of his medical procedure quickly followed and it would be the last time we would see him in the dugout. Looking back, it was the perfect goodbye.

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How to Win Promotion

Where do we go from here?

The hope after relegation was that Tony Mowbray would return to the dugout.

What did we want ahead of this season?

• Strong recruitment

• Stylish football

• Winning football

• Unity between board, players, management and supporters

• Building of a positive footballing culture

• Promotion experience

Mowbray ticked a lot of the boxes.

He would have been fantastic overseeing our improvement at Championship level and almost perfect for a League One campaign.

It isn’t to be.

The club now go through the process of finding a new manager and a couple of days in, it’s clear that this won’t be easy.

Every name under the sun has been mentioned. The ambitious names that would scoff at the idea of managing in League One. The up-and-coming names that would love to step up but will be managing resources they’ve never had before. The names from the merry-go round that have experience but are hardened from previous roles. The former academy coaches or current assistants looking to break into the management game for the first time.

I can only speak for myself, but none of the names put forward fit all the criteria. There’s always a “but”.

The club have set their stool out with their data showcasing how playing on the front foot and dominating the ball is the way to win promotion. It certainly tracks from the raw data with three of the top four having 58% or more of the ball on average in League One and the top six being top six for most goals scored. Yet what set apart the top two and the chasing back was conceding less than a goal per game.

The year before was similar. The top three produced record breaking points totals with all three sitting top of the goals scored chart, two of the three conceding fewer than a goal per game with league winners Plymouth conceding 47 in 46. The top four clubs for possession finished in the top six with Portsmouth just behind.

And the year before that, five of the top six were five of the top six for goals scored while the top three conceded less than a goal per game. Four of the top six had 54% or more of the ball with Bolton Wanderers, just promoted under Ian Evatt, and Ipswich Town, who employed Kieran McKenna part way through the campaign, amongst them. The outliers were Paul Warne’s Rotherham United and Gareth Ainsworth’s Wycombe Wanderers.

So, style is key but so is substance. We need to be hard to beat but have a killer instinct. And it’s sounds so, so obvious, but is never quite that simple.

Looking further into the data, here are the players that played 75% of minutes for the three promoted clubs last season:

Portsmouth: Norris (GK), Rafferty (RB), Shaughnessy (CB), Pack (CM), Karama (RW), Bishop (ST). Poole started 14 games at CB and was replaced by Raggett after injury, who started 30 of the next 32. That’s three new signings.

Derby: Wildsmith (GK), Nelson (CB), Cashin (CB), Mendez-Laing (WG). Hourihane and Bird both started 30 games each. That’s one new signing.

Oxford: Brown (CB), Moore (CB), Brannagan (CM), Rodrigues (AM), Harris (ST). That’s two new signings, albeit acknowledging that goalkeepers James Beadle (25) and Jamie Cumming (20), who both crossed paths in signing on loan, started 45 matches between them. That’s two new signings.

That’s six new signings playing consistent minutes across the season and four being signed by July 1st.

The year before that, Ipswich had six players start 40+ matches (GK, CB, RWB, LWB, CM, AM) and Sheffield Wednesday had five start 34+ (DF, LWB, CM, CM, ST). Plymouth Argyle are an outlier (three played 75% of minutes) but they had built up consistency with their squad and management over years meaning players were more comfortable stepping in when required. Three of those players across the three clubs were new signings.

In 2021-22, Wigan had seven players started 40+ games (GK, RB, CB, CM, CM, WG, ST), Rotherham had six play 75% of minutes (CB, CM, CM, CM, WB, ST) while Sunderland finished 5th after a difficult campaign that was brought back to life under Alex Neil. Four of Wigan’s seven were new signings but all brought in by July 1st while one of Rotherham’s six were new.

The point here is two fold:

1) It’s clear that having a consistent spine is hugely important. We need footballers that are available most weeks and can lead by example in key positions.

2) We might sign 15 players this summer, as is a genuine likelihood, but only two or three will likely play regularly while others need time. It means that we will be reliant on those that already remain at the club.

It makes it imperative that the club get their recruitment of that spine right and get it done early. Of those six new signings that played 75% of minutes, four were signed by 1st July.

Blues made 13 signings across the summer with only four of those made before pre-season started. Two of those were Tyler Roberts and Koji Miyoshi, who were managed during pre-season due to pre-existing injury problems. Of the six players that managed 30+ starts for Blues in the league, four were new signings but two, Krystian Bielik and Dion Sanderson, were with the club the year before on loan. So only two new players managed 30+ starts – Jay Stansfield and Lee Buchanan.

Finally, of those nine clubs previously promoted, only one bounced straight back immediately – Paul Warne’s Rotherham United. In every instance, the club started the campaign with the manager that finished the previous one with Sunderland and Oxford United enduring managerial changes to tidy up the work that had already been done to win promotion via the play-offs. All six automatically promoted teams achieved their goals having had a year to set themselves up for success first.

We have the budget. We have the facilities. We aren’t at the best starting point. The board have to get the managerial selection right, get current key players on board and recruit the players that will play the majority of available minutes and get that done by the time pre-season starts.

It’s a big job.

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An Important Month

I don’t want to get into the discussion around who the manager should be. As I’ve mentioned on Twitter, I’m struggling to make a decision on who I see as the perfect candidate and with the net for a manager being cast wider than ever, it’s possible I’ve never heard of the man that takes us forward. It’s also possible that an appointment could render much of what I say pointless within a matter of days.

It’s also true that I can’t decide what type of manager I view as best for our situation. I would love nothing more than to see some young upstart turn up and create something beautiful but it doesn’t feel like our football structure is as strong or unique as others and with so much work to do this summer, it’s plausible that the sensible appointment could be preferable to get us out of this division. Hopefully there is somebody out there that mixes style, pragmatism, nous and experience in the way Mowbray did but I couldn’t tell you who that is sat on my arse at home.

It makes discussion around recruitment tough. It doesn’t mean it can’t be discussed, however.

Recent seasons show that automatic promotion winning sides have built their identity and squad over more than one summer and have had 5/6/7 players play consistent minutes. A good window means 5/6 players playing at least half of available minutes with 2/3 playing 75% of available minutes.

So, who can we rely on from those that remain? There’s John Ruddy, who has missed just five matches over two seasons, but it’s likely he doesn’t sign with rumours of us offering a big reduction in wage. Dion Sanderson has started 68 of the last 92 league matches while Krystian Bielik has started 70 of the last 85. Lee Buchanan was available for 35 matches last season.

Elsewhere, it’s trickier. Ethan Laird was available for every game from February onwards but injuries remain a concern. Emmanuel Longelo is second choice at left-back. Alfie Chang is recovering from an ACL. George Hall, Keshi Anderson and Tyler Roberts have had injury issues across the last year. Lukas Jutkiewicz is 35 and started three matches last season.

That leaves Koji Miyoshi, who has a year left on his deal, Paik Seung-Ho, who may look to leave having recently returned to the South Korea National Team, Jordan James, who has been linked with a move away for sometime and is expected to depart, Juninho Bacuna, another international with offers on the table, Alex Pritchard, who initially joined to pair up with Tony Mowbray and struggled after his departure, and Siriki Dembele, the wildcard in the squad. There are the academy lads such as Romelle Donovan and Junior Dixon, but it’s unlikely they will step in for a rookie season and start 40 games.

There are a lot of unknowns with the squad.

I’m confident that we keep at least three of Laird, Bielik, Sanderson and Buchanan. They will command a good fee with 2-4 years left on their deals, will be earning decent money and the club aren’t about to let go of everybody still contracted. Keep them all and I honestly believe we start the season with the best right-back, best left-back and best central defenders in the division. Especially when Michal Helik leaves Huddersfield Town as expected.

If we can keep one or both of Paik and Miyoshi, that should provide some consistency. I’m fully expecting James and Bacuna to depart. Will somebody else step up? It remains to be seen.

With departures this summer, we are likely to be signing somewhere in the region of 12-15 players. That’s a lot of business. Not every one of those players will play key roles. Some will be signed to provide competition, show signs of development or be an experienced head to support those in the XI. Some will be certified first teamers.

The most important additions could very well be those that join before pre-season and help set the tone and the standards for others that join. Get those right, including the key goalkeeper (assuming Ruddy does depart, central midfielder (or centre-back depending on where the new gaffer decides Bielik is better off) and forward (not necessarily a striker – Conor Chaplin, Nathaniel Mandez-Laing and Jack Clarke have proved that the responsibility doesn’t have to rely on the man up top) and the managerial appointment right and we could be onto a good thing, especially knowing we can go again in January for a final push towards the top two.

A big, big month lies ahead.