An unbelievable start - where do we go from here?
Another international break means another opportunity to look back on the season so far. I take a look at the last five matches, our first loss, the starting XI and what is to come.
“My expectation is that we learn these lessons early and get through the first ten games in a strong position. Because we are going to endure a frustrating 0-0 or 1-1 draw early doors away at a club that will see us as a free hit and we will lose somewhere 1-0 or 2-1 in a game that we either cost ourselves or just can’t find the goal we deserve against an excellent defensive display.”
I wrote that on the eve of the opening day as my expectation for the coming season. I suppose in some ways, I called it right. And yet, our start to the season isn’t exactly what I envisaged.
It’s been far better.
Regardless of what we’ve spent and the quality of player we’ve brought in, to start the League One campaign with seven wins and a draw from our opening nine matches (the tenth being the game cancelled against Exeter City due to the international break) has been excellent.
Let’s not forget that we’ve signed 17 players, most of whom arrived after pre-season started, and let more than that depart the club in a huge squad churn. New manager. New coaches. New style. Change of internal culture. Huge pressure and expectation. It’s an impressive feat.
And yet, I begin writing this on the back of a disappointing performance and result at Charlton Athletic that has perhaps brought fans and players back down to Earth a little having felt somewhat untouchable. That was until we put four past Shrewsbury Town in the EFL Trophy and chants of “Easy, easy" began in the away end. Or home end. A strange competition.
In this piece, I’ll have a look at the last five games, the starting XI going forward, touch on the tactical stuff and the next month.
The Big Five
Wrexham. Rotherham United. Peterborough United. Huddersfield Town. Charlton Athletic.
Three weeks. Five matches. Five pre-season promotion favourites. This was always likely to be a week that tested whether this group are up for the challenge.
We won the first four and it never truly felt like we were tested.
Across those first four matches, we retained at least 68% of the ball in each game. We averaged 19 shots, 4.75 shots on target, 4 big chances and 1.97xG. Our opponents averaged 6.25 shots, 2.25 shots on target, 0.5 big chances and 0.73xG.
Then you dig deeper. Of those 25 shots, only 14 were taken after the first 16 minutes of the match – from minutes 16 to 90+ we were conceding an average of 3.75 shots. Of those 14, three were swung from distance by Wrexham after Blues had gone down to ten men. Just five were taken from inside the Blues area. Only one was a big chance. The xG of those remaining chances was just 1.54.
But this wasn’t just a numbers thing. It was clear to all that were watching. We smothered Wrexham and they simply couldn’t find a way out of defence, sloppy under pressure and resorting to clearing their lines. The Rotherham game was a dead affair once we scored the second. Peterborough felt like an inevitability almost from the moment they scored their second. Huddersfield was as comfortable as Blues have been all season.
Total domination. Didn’t matter whether it was 0-0 or we were coming from behind against Wrexham and Peterborough United. We found our rhythm, we dominated the ball, dominated the territory and never looked like we might concede thereon.
Then came Charlton Athletic.
There are two sides to that game.
The first is the narrative many are perhaps happy to run with – the hosts were excellent and “did a job on us". It’s not wrong. They set up their stool to boil the game down to individual battles across the pitch, to play with energy and stop us getting forward.
It’s a job they did brilliantly. They made their interceptions, blocks and fouls high up the pitch so we didn’t make it to the final third. They won 17 of their 22 attempted tackles. And when they had to defend deeper areas, they did so. They won pretty much every one of those battles.
The other side of it is that we weren’t good enough. If we play to our standard, we win football matches. We were nowhere near it on the day.
Our style means that we don’t tend to get embroiled in individual battles across the pitch, fighting it out physically. We move the ball and leave the opposition chasing it and us.
We didn’t commit enough. We moved it slowly from the back. The forwards weren’t sharp enough to avoid the challenge and move it. We didn’t make enough forward runs. When we did make it to the final third, we were sloppy or made poor decisions. And with the game laid out as it was, we weren’t strong enough on the day in the key battles.
Why was that? I’d probably suggest numerous reasons. One, these players are human and no matter how talented they are, they are going to have off days. Two, it was our third game of the week and while that can’t be an excuse, I’m guessing it was an eye-opener to those that haven’t done that kind of week in England yet to that intensity. Three, probably team selection. Four, Davies learning how to manage three game weeks as the leading man rather than a secondary.
If nothing else, it was evidence that no matter how far we have come in a short amount of time, we are still learning on this journey and will continue to be tested at times this season. It’s up to management and players to make the right decisions, to dig in, show their quality and find a way.
Who starts?
As tends to happen with a defeat, questions have been raised about the starting XI and shape and whether we should change it up.
There’s always room to improve. Chris Davies has said as much himself and he’s driving standards that suggest we will never be the perfect team.
Let’s begin with the starting XI.
I think at this early stage, we can look at Christoph Klarer, Krystian Bielik, Alex Cochrane, Tomoki Iwata, Paik Seung-Ho, Willum Willumson and Jay Stansfield as starters when fit. At least for now – we don’t have the full body of evidence for some of them and it is plausible one or two may need taking out of the firing line at some point.
That leaves four other positions up for grabs as it stands.
We have had Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Ryan Allsop compete in goal. If we’re brutally honest, neither have been fantastic.
I feel I should be up front when discussing the goalkeeping situation that my mindset is a little old-school. I like goalkeepers who are good goalkeepers first. I’m doing my best to change my mindset as far as Blues keepers are concerned because their job is probably more about what they provide in possession as to what they provide in protecting their goal and commanding their box.
Like many, I’ve sat through games and questioned both. Peacock-Farrell can be lackadaisical and doesn’t carry himself as you’d expect a 6”4 goalkeeper to do so. He’s essentially played a role in four of the last five goals he has conceded. For two, he was tackled by an opposition forward in his own area, one went through his legs from distance and the other was when he flapped at a corner. The goal he conceded for Northern Ireland doesn’t concern us yet also doesn’t help with the narrative building around him and there was a definite tension in the air every time he received the ball against Peterborough United.
Allsop hasn’t walked in and made the spot his own. I think him playing a role that required a slower game at Hull City doesn’t help given his job now is to keep the ball moving and the tempo high. There has been talk that he has been held back because of his positional play. And he has given the ball away a couple of times during his first matches.
I think as fans, we have to get used to the fact that our goalkeeper is going to give the ball away. It’s part and parcel of this style. Some won’t like it, and I can completely understand that, but the body of evidence available this season shows that the risk and reward nature is benefitting us in terms of the level of control we are able to exert in games.
Who the better goalkeeper is remains up for debate. Allsop has been given the jersey and with Peacock-Farrell suffering a shoulder issue, it looks to be his shirt to lose.
Right-back is a tricky one because none of the three players involved in the battle have let us down. Ethan Laird started the campaign. When he picked up an ankle injury, Alfons Sampsted looked to set to get his chance only for international duty and a bout of food poisoning giving Taylor Gardner-Hickman the opportunity instead and it’s one that he has taken. It feels as though Laird will step back into the XI once fit but his fitness record means that both Sampsted and Gardner-Hickman will get their opportunities. All three offer something different yet fit the role well in their own way.
There are two places up for grabs in attack.
I think the left-wing spot is more specific than the other. The role requires somebody to stand on the touchline rather than float and get involved, so it feels more pronounced than the central and right-sided roles that provide a little more license.
I think it is also a more specific role because when we play teams that build with a back three, as we have done in four of the last five matches (Peterborough played 4-2-3-1 but had Mothersille (LW) and Katongo/Dornelly (RB) receiving wide), it’s the left-winger that drops in to allow Cochrane to cover the centre-backs. So they have to be as switched on out of possession as they are in possession.
(As an aside, I also think that has become a prominent feature since the arrival of Jay Stansfield and Blues essentially having a front two rather than three midfielders)
So far, Keshi Anderson and Emil Hansson have had the jersey and performances have been indifferent. I think both hold their position, both do the work forward and back (even if Anderson was second best vs Charlton in that regard), both look after the ball. It’s just the killer instinct and quality that has been inconsistent. There is Ayuma Yokoyama, who looks pacey and sharp but has work to do as he develops his game (he had just 13 J League starts to his name before signing). Of course, Scott Wright and Luke Harris can also perform the role, so we have plenty of options.
I think it’s definitely the more selfless role of the front four and similar to the right-back position, I’m sure we will see various occupants offering different things throughout the campaign.
The other forward role is a difficult one to nail down and truthfully, I don’t think we will see a regular player start.
Essentially, our shape once in possession is a 3-2-4-1. It is relatively fluid with Cochrane, Paik or Klarer having license to join the attack when the opportunity presents itself. But that is the shape for the most part. Our right-back and left-winger hold width. The right-winger tucks inside into a half-right position with our attacking midfielder occupying a similar position from the left.
Since the arrival of Stansfield, we have generally started with Willumson occupying the right-sided position of the box with Stansfield either leading the line with May playing off him, or Dykes leading the line with Stansfield off him. We have also seen changes made in game with Wright stepping into the right-sided role and Willumson playing off Stansfield. We even moved to a 4-4-2 against Charlton Athletic.
Different games are going to call for different options. For example, May’s running, his energy and pressing alongside Stansfield and Willumson will make it very difficult for sides to play out from the back. When teams press us high, having the option of Dykes to play more direct into will be important. The Rotherham United game showed us how Stansfield can penetrate by moving in behind the last defender while against Huddersfield, he was marked by a much slower player and could do the same while leading the line. Having the more direct running style of Anderson and Wright could be important where space is afforded. Sometimes delivery into the box and having more than one forward attacking the six-yard box will be important rather than looking for the cutback.
It feels like Willumson and Stansfield will play when fit, but they’re also very adaptable footballers so it lends itself to the option of fielding whichever of the other players best suits the needs of the game and allows the other two to flourish, while also playing an important role themselves.
That also brings us towards questions around whether we should adapt the style or shape.
As above, I think there were reasons for the Charlton performance and the evidence is available that it was more of a one-off than something to be concerned about longer-term. If we play to our level playing this way, we beat anybody in the division. We just have to maintain those high standards each week.
Why does it work? Because it stretches the opposition. It gives an extra player high up the pitch for the opposition defence to contend with and because the wide players stay wide, it opens up the pitch to ensure Blues always have a spare man on the ball. When we move the ball quickly, those gaps only get bigger.
Does Davies adapt in-game to issues? Yes.
I think the difficulty with the modern game is that changes are less pronounced than in bygone eras. We don’t see an obvious change of shape. We see less giant strikers chucked onto the pitch to lump the ball to. The changes tend to be more subtle such as a slight tweak to the shape, or which player makes a forward run or the distances between players on the pitch.
The most obvious change, outside of having ten men, was the one against Charlton as referenced above, which was when Blues essentially moved into a 4-4-2 where Stansfield and Dykes played closer together and width and deliveries was seen as the answer. Charlton had blocked the centre of the pitch so the answer was to play wider. Unfortunately, the quality was lacking.
I guess for the most part, we haven’t seen many in game changes because we’ve been so comfortable.
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What comes next?
I’ve been so focused on the last five matches and where we would stand after them that I hadn’t paid much attention to what is coming up.
It definitely isn’t the case of we’ve just played the best the league has to offer and we piss it from here.
Lincoln City responded to defeat against Barnsley on matchday two by tightening up their defence. They are unbeaten in their last seven matches, conceding just four goals and only Blackpool have managed to take more than 11 shots at their goal. They’re not easy to breakdown and it could prove a game where we have to be patient and ruthless.
Mansfield Town are also flying, winning each of their last five matches to propel themselves into third. It’s not been the most challenging start on paper but they’ve beaten Blackpool and Barnsley and drawn with Stockport County. And while we talk up Stockport County and Wrexham as promotion challengers this season, it’s easily forgotten that Mansfield Town stayed with them stride for stride on route to promotion, while having one of the most experienced managers in the country at the helm.
And between those trips it’s Bolton Wanderers at home, the team talked up in pre-season as second favourites for promotion behind ourselves. They had a nightmare start to the campaign and it led to talk of Ian Evatt departing, the 42-year-old going public with his concerns. They have responded with three wins and a draw, scoring 13 goals in the process. They have created 0.39xG less than us over the season and are amongst the biggest underperformers defending their own goal.
We then go straight from those three matches to playing Fulham under 21’s on Tuesday 29th October then the FA Cup First Round clash that weekend. Five games in two weeks.
There are a couple of other thoughts as to why this coming week or so may not be plain sailing.
We didn’t turn up and struggled to navigate the final game of the last three-game week, so it’s important the players and management team make the right decisions on and off the pitch to ensure we are better set this time around. We have no excuses as far as availability is concerned because we have a depth and quality of squad unmatched by the rest of the division but this is where Davies and the coaching staff are going to earn their money in making sure the 11 players that step out onto the pitch can deliver to the levels they and the fans expect.
It’s that stage of the season where issues begin to crop up and the squad begins to be tested.
Krystian Bielik is set to miss the next month with an ankle knock. Given the time missed by Laird and Harris with ankle issues, there is concern around Iwata also going off against Shrewsbury with an ankle problem.
There are other more minor issues. Paik will be involved with South Korea on Tuesday meaning he will return to the club from East Asia late. Stansfield missed England under 21 duty with a knock. Dykes and Willumson will start both games for their countries while Sampsted has also been away. Peacock-Farrell is now sidelined. Laird and Harris may return but will need to get up to speed.
I mentioned seven players earlier that are starters when fit and five of those are going be either unavailable or need managing. Factor in the goalkeeping situation and that’s a potential concern about the entire spine of the team.
We are going to need other players to step up now.
Ben Davies is likely to play centre-back for the next month. Sanderson’s return could be well timed. If Iwata is out, Leonard could be thrown back into the XI while Gardner-Hickman could find his position change from right-back to central midfield with Sampsted maybe making his first league start(s). The returns of Laird and Harris could be well timed to provide depth and competition. Dykes and May will continue to share the load while Wright’s brace the other day could be the confidence boost he needs to force himself into the XI.
No excuses, but decisions to be made and scenarios to be managed.
Where do I expect us to be when the next international break starts?
Honestly, still top of League One and in the next round of both the EFL Trophy and FA Cup. It has to be the aim.
In terms of League One, a perfect month can’t be out of the question. There’s no reason why can’t make it through the next 30 or so days unbeaten.
Our next EFL Trophy fixture is against Fulham’s under 21’s and it will genuinely be awful if we lose that match. This is a team of kids with minimal first team experience beaten by both Walsall and Maidenhead United recently. As for the FA Cup, it will be a match against a League One side or team from a lower division and we should be winning it.
But football always has a way of surprising us and we first have to navigate a tricky trip to Lincoln City and go from there.
It’s been a fantastic start. Long may it continue.